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MEM

Memphis 29 at Tulsa 35

TLSA
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:33 · Joe Doyle punt for 67 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+11.0Pregame prior+2.2Garbage-time factor+2.0Score differential+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Time remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:36: Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD, (David Kemp KICK) — MEM win probability +11.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +19.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:37: Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +16.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:12: Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +18.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:11: Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 30 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Javon Ivory for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +17.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:02MEM 4th & 4 at TLSA 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:14TLSA 4th & 3 at MEM 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:48MEM 4th & 9 at TLSA 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:56TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:37MEM 4th & 4 at TLSA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−1.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:40TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:38MEM 4th & 4 at TLSA 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−8.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:24TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 19, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:42MEM 4th & 10 at TLSA 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:43TLSA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:33MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 33, down 8
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:11TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 39, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:23MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:40MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:23MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:32TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:36MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:11TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:37TLSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:55TLSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:12MEM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.6%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:28TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:11MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:4042% → 43%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
57.6%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+6
57.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+5
57.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
57.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 1 yd to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
57.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+20
57.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Hunter Rangel) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
50
+10
57.4%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete to Austin III, Calvin, PENALTY TULSA holding (Davis, Tyon) 10 yards to the TULSA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
57.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+15
57.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 15 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
57.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+4
57.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2MISSED FG
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4343% → 43%
Q1 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-2
57.3%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
57.5%
David Kemp 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:2358% → 63%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
57.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
57.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
57.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
57.9%
Davis Brin run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
58.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
58.1%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
58.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
58.1%
Steven Anderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
58.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
58.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 11 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
59.0%
Davis Brin run for 13 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
59.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
62.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:4939% → 39%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
61.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 18 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-44
61.1%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Travon Fuller return for 44 yds to the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1563% → 63%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
63.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
63.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-1
62.9%
Davis Brin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 8Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+1
62.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Memph 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:1938% → 37%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
62.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
62.4%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+25
62.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 25 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.1%
Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
61.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 7 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
61.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+19
62.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 19 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
61.5%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
60.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
61.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+53
63.0%
David Kemp 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3464% → 64%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
63.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
64.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
64.6%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
64.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2436% → 48%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
63.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
63.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
63.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
62.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+11
62.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 11 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
62.4%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
62.6%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+10
62.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 10 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
62.2%
Kylan Watkins run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
62.1%
Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+17
63.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 17 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD, (David Kemp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3559% → 59%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.5%
Keylon Stokes run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
59.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
59.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
59.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
58.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 yds, downed at the Memph 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
20 plays · 93 yds · 5:1044% → 62%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
55.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 14
-1
55.6%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+9
56.7%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.2%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
55.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Asa MartinSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+11
56.9%
Seth Henigan run for 11 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
55.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 18 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
52.6%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
52.9%
Kylan Watkins run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
53.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Matt Dale) to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+5
53.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 5 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+7
53.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 7 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
50.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Dale) to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+10
52.2%
Seth Henigan run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
50.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+34
51.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 34 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Kemp PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:1944% → 65%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
46.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 32 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
65.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
59.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1762% → 60%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:5539% → 41%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
60.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 14 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
60.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 10 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
58.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+29
57.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 29 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
56.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Koby DrakeSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
56.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Evan Fields) to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 15
OPP 22
-1
57.3%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 16
OPP 23
+12
59.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 12 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 4
OPP 11
0
59.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0462% → 60%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
61.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+2
61.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
60.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
59.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3644% → 38%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.5%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
56.6%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
58.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
61.6%
Joe Doyle 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5062% → 63%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
62.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
63.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
64.8%
Davis Brin run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
65.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 3
50
0
65.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 3
50
0
63.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0138% → 38%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
61.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
60.8%
Kylan Watkins run for 3 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
61.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Justin Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 20 Seth Henigan fumbled, forced by Justin Wright, recovered by Tulsa Joseph Anderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5167% → 82%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
67.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
67.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
66.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
67.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
82.0%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5722% → 19%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
77.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
79.9%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
81.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2283% → 84%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
82.6%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Smith) to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
82.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
82.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
82.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
84.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
84.3%
Davis Brin run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+1
84.7%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
84.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 58 yds, downed at the Memph 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:4317% → 15%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+16
83.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 16 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
82.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 1 yd to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+18
83.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 18 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
82.2%
Kylan Watkins run for no gain to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
84.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:0586% → 95%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
85.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
85.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
85.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
87.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+63
95.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 63 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:356% → 25%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
94.2%
Seth Henigan run for 19 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+27
93.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 27 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
92.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 20 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:3287% → 97%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
86.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
87.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
88.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
88.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
90.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+4
91.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
97.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 44 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
97.3%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Chester Baah) to the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:095% → 21%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
94.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
95.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+25
95.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 25 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
94.8%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jaxon Player and Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+24
97.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 24 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
78.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 30 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Javon Ivory for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2193% → 93%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.5%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
92.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
93.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
93.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 64 yds , Koby Drake returns for 4 yds to the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:258% → 11%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
91.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 4 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+16
91.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 16 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
88.2%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jaxon Player for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+3
90.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 3 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
90.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+12
91.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 12 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.7%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Bryson Powers return for no gain to the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:4596% → 96%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-3
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+19.1
TD · Q4 8:12
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Sean Dykes for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.2
TD · Q4 3:11
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 30 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Javon Ivory for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com