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ECU

East Carolina 16 at UCF 20

UCF
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:02 · Jonn Young punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+14.1Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:59: Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +13.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:43: Audie Omotosho 27 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick) — ECU win probability +24.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:01: Owen Daffer 34 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +22.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:06: Daniel Obarski 40 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +5.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:23: Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +48.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:16UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:06ECU 4th & 7 at UCF 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57UCF 4th & 13 at ECU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:25ECU 4th & 4 at UCF 11, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:27UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:26ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:15UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:02ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:29UCF 4th & 18 at ECU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:34ECU 4th & 5 at UCF 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:58ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:26UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:17UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−4.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ECU 4th & 1 at UCF 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.6%−7.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−6.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:01ECU 4th & 13 at UCF 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−5.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−20.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:06UCF 4th & 6 at ECU 22, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−10.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:39ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−6.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:50UCF 4th & 8 at ECU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 7:59UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:43ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:23UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FUMBLE
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:3227% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 18 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
73.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+11
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 13 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
73.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+12
73.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 12 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
73.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
71.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1272% → 72%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
72.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
72.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
72.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
72.3%
Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
71.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:1028% → 29%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
71.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
71.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Kalia Davis for 0 yards to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+33
72.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 33 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
71.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 6 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
71.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-5
71.2%
QB Keeper AHLERS, Holton rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UCF31 (BULLARD, Quadric). PENALTY Before the snap, ECU False Start enforced 5 yards from the UCF34 to the UCF39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
71.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
70.8%
Jonn Young punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:0971% → 71%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
71.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
70.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 10 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
71.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-3
71.6%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+5
70.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+5
71.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
71.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+26
72.1%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 26 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
72.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
71.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-3
71.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Trillion Coles for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
70.5%
Daniel Obarski 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:3229% → 33%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
71.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
71.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 14 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
70.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
69.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
69.6%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
69.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
69.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
69.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
66.7%
Owen Daffer 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5869% → 68%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
70.0%
COLES, Trillion rush up the middle for no gain to the UCF34 (DOURSEAU, Shawn). PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UCF34 to the UCF29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
68.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
67.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0133% → 32%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
67.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
67.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Jones) to the ECaro 21Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+5
67.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 5 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
68.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+14
68.5%
Jonn Young punt for 52 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 14 yds to the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1169% → 67%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
68.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
68.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
68.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
67.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1334% → 33%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
65.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-2
64.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
65.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
66.7%
Jonn Young punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:3368% → 66%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
68.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
69.8%
Mikey Keene run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
69.0%
Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
69.5%
Trillion Coles run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
69.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+11
69.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
70.4%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nate Craig-Myers) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 19
50
+2
69.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+2
69.1%
Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 15
OPP 46
-5
67.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Ryan O'Keefe) to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 20
OWN 49
+2
66.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Trillion Coles for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
65.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2736% → 40%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
64.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 14 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
63.5%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Big Kat Bryant for 0 yards to the ECaro 21Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
64.0%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Josh Celiscar for 0 yards to the ECaro 17Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 16
OWN 17
0
65.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 16
OWN 17
+15
65.6%
YOUNG, Jonn punt 50 yards to the UCF33 return muffed by JOHNSON, Amari at the UCF33, recovered by UCF JOHNSON, Amari at the UCF33, returned 0 yards to the UCF33, End of Play. PENALTY UCF Roughing the Kicker on BAKER, Jarrad enforced 15 yards from the ECU17 to the ECU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
62.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 8 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
60.3%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
69.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 25 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:2366% → 65%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
66.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+4
66.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 4 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
64.7%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:5742% → 44%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
58.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+17
58.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 17 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
58.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.4%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.6%
Mason Garcia run for no gain to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
56.2%
Owen Daffer 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3558% → 77%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
57.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 38 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
61.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
63.0%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
61.3%
Joey Gatewood run for 6 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
63.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+13
63.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0128% → 26%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
72.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
73.7%
Jonn Young punt for 51 yds, downed at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3273% → 71%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
73.1%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
73.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
72.5%
Mikey Keene sacked by Suirad Ware and Bruce Bivens for 0 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
70.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:4332% → 55%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
68.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
67.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
67.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+1
66.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
70.1%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Keenan Hester) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
45.5%
Audie Omotosho 27 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2655% → 52%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.0%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
54.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 20 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
58.4%
Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
59.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
55.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by Shawn Dourseau for 0 yards to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 13
OWN 42
-2
51.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds , Tyler Snead returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 7:5951% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
49.5%
Jsi Hatfield run for 4 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+16
49.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 16 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
46.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
46.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
45.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
45.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
45.6%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
48.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
45.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 15 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
43.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
43.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+14
46.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 14 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
43.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
43.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
45.5%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Keenan Hester for 0 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
23.1%
Owen Daffer 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5533% → 44%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+49
32.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 49 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
42.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
42.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+3
38.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
44.3%
Daniel Obarski 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2769% → 60%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
32.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
31.5%
Jonn Young punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 36Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.4%
PENALTY ECU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MAUNEY, Demetrius UCF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BAKER, Jarrad , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:1640% → 96%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
40.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
42.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 16 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
45.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
45.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
38.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+12
34.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 12 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
46.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+19
46.4%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 19 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
46.4%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:1213% → 11%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
87.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+11
89.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 11 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
89.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 24 yds to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:23
Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
+48.6
TD · Q3 2:43
Audie Omotosho 27 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)
-24.6
FG · Q4 7:01
Owen Daffer 34 yd FG GOOD
-22.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com