2021 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2021 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:13 · Adam Barry punt for 58 yds, downed at the Cincy 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:52: Alec Pierce 9 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Cole Smith Kick) — CIN win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:42: Jerome Ford 8 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick) — CIN win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:27: Rory Bell 55 Yd Field Goal — TEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:50: Jerome Ford 75 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick) — CIN win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:00: Tyler Scott 38 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Cole Smith Kick) — CIN win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:41TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q1 7:15CIN 4th & 12 at TEM 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.6%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call94.7%86% to makePunt94.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:26CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 37, up 3Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it94.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:52TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q2 5:27TEM 4th & 17 at CIN 38, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.315% to convertField goalTheir call4.1%38% to makePunt4.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:44CIN 4th & 10 at TEM 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%64% to makePunt93.2%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:33TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q3 13:13TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 34, down 21Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:41CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 13, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q3 8:49TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 15, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 12:29TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 38, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:56TEM 4th & 3 at CIN 3, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%44% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:42CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 3, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 1:07TEM 4th & 4 at CIN 36, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goal0.0%42% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 2:52CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:42CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:50CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:00CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:45CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:54CIN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:15CIN Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:073% → 3%
Q1 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
97.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 7 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
97.0%
D'Wan Mathis sacked by Bryan Cook for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 34Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+30
96.7%
Adam Barry punt for 39 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 30 yds to the CINCINNATI 50 CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FG11 plays · 48 yds · 4:1997% → 96%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
96.7%
Ford, Jerome rush for 19 yards to the TEMPLE41, PENALTY CINCINNATI holding (Cooper, Jeremy) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+26
96.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 26 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+21
96.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 21 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker, broken up by Alex OdomSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
96.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 6 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
96.0%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Yvandy Rigby for a loss of 6 yards to the Temp 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 2:144% → 4%
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass incomplete to Edward Saydee, broken up by Darrian BeaversSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
95.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for 3 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
95.7%
Saydee, Edward rush for 2 yards to the TEMPLE41, PENALTY TEMPLE illegal formation 5 yards to the TEMPLE34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-4
95.7%
D'Wan Mathis run for 1 yd to the Temp 36 TEMPLE Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (D'Wan Mathis) to the Temp 31Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
95.7%
Adam Barry punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2596% → 95%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 4
OWN 37
-4
95.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds , Jadan Blue returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 13 Jadan Blue fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ja'von HicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2895% → 96%
TEMDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 2:564% → 5%
CINDrive 7TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0295% → 97%
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
95.4%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44 Jerome Ford fumbled, recovered by Cincy Jerome FordSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
95.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 14 yds to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
95.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 6 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+9
94.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8FG11 plays · 37 yds · 4:053% → 5%
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.6%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 15 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+20
96.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Edward Saydee for 20 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
95.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Edward Saydee for 1 yd to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-8
96.0%
D'Wan Mathis sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 38 D'Wan Mathis fumbled, forced by Darrian Beavers, recovered by Temp Adam Klein , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 2:3296% → 95%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
95.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 11 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
95.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 7 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
95.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 8 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
95.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott, broken up by Cameron RuizSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
95.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 7 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-7
95.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:575% → 5%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
95.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
95.0%
D'Wan Mathis sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 36Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+2
95.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for 2 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
95.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass incomplete to Jordan Smith, broken up by Ja'von HicksSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Adam Barry punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
94.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 1 yd to the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q3 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
97.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 4 yds to the Temp 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FUMBLE4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q3 12:32
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+4
98.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 4 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
98.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr., broken up by Cameron RuizSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
98.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds, Amad Anderson Jr. returns for no gain to the Temple 39, Amad Anderson Jr. fumbled, recovered by Cincy Tre Tucker, CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Josh Whyle) to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD2 plays · 54 yds · 0:3298% → 100%
TEMDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
99.6%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-10
99.7%
D'Wan Mathis sacked by Joel Dublanko for a loss of 10 yards to the Temp 15Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Adam Barry punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD3 plays · 61 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+33
99.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 33 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18INT7 plays · 37 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 16 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 1
50
+12
99.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Edward Saydee for 12 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for no gain to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-21
99.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass intercepted Coby Bryant return for 21 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD10 plays · 76 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q3 3:50
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for no gain to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 27 yds to the Temp 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Michael Young Jr. 11 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Cole Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 34Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 4 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Adam Barry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD5 plays · 77 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 72 yds · 5:080% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
100.0%
Justin Lynch sacked by Deshawn Pace and Daved Jones Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 31Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+26
100.0%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Nazir Burnett for 26 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
100.0%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Nazir Burnett for 4 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 2:42
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+9
100.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds , Amad Anderson Jr. returns for 9 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24DOWNS6 plays · 6 yds · 1:350% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:50
Jerome Ford 75 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)
+3.1
TD · Q2 9:42
Jerome Ford 8 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)
+2.3
TD · Q3 11:00
Tyler Scott 38 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Cole Smith Kick)
+1.2