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USF

South Florida 17 at SMU 41

SMU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:16 · Andrew Stokes punt for 9 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+9.3Home team on offense+14.6Score differential+4.8Garbage-time factor+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Time remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:05: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds for a TD — SMU win probability +3.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:50: Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +8.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:25: Tre Siggers run for 13 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:29: Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +7.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:32: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 5 at USF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:40SMU 4th & 8 at USF 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:46USF 4th & 5 at SMU 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:37USF 4th & 12 at SMU 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:55USF 4th & 15 at USF 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:23SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:56SMU 4th & 8 at USF 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:55USF 4th & 22 at USF 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:29USF 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    -3.1%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:26SMU 4th & 7 at USF 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:16USF 4th & 7 at USF 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:10USF 4th & 4 at USF 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:09SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 40, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:50SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:50USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:25SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:29USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:32SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:09SMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1090% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
89.7%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
89.7%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
89.7%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+12
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 12 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
89.7%
Tre Siggers run for 10 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
89.7%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
89.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
89.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Sean Atkins for 14 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
89.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
89.0%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
89.0%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:2189% → 89%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
89.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 22 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
89.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 9
50
+3
89.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+23
89.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 23 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
89.3%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
89.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 3 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
89.2%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
89.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.4%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
88.9%
Blake Mazza 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:4811% → 12%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
88.9%
Brian Battie run for 24 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
88.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.5%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
88.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
88.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
88.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 31 yds, downed at the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 97 yds · 4:4188% → 92%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
88.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+5
88.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+11
88.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
88.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
88.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
88.4%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+13
88.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 13 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
88.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
88.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
88.9%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right complete for 14 yards to RICE, Rashee caught at the USF24 and advanced to the USF20 (HILL, Matthew), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY USF Personal Foul on HILL, Matthew enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the end of the play at the USF20 to the USF10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
88.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
88.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
91.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 7:288% → 10%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
91.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 19 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
91.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
91.3%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
91.4%
Timmy McClain run for 10 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
91.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+3
91.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
91.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+9
91.0%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.0%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
91.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
91.0%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
91.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Matthew Hill) to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
91.7%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
91.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 13 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
90.2%
Spencer Shrader 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Brandon Epton Jr. for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.3%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+8
90.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 8 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
90.8%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
90.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
90.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
90.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1610% → 9%
Q2 1:11
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
90.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
90.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
90.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3292% → 92%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
91.5%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-4
92.5%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+7
92.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 7 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
92.4%
Brendan Hall punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:239% → 10%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
91.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 37 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
89.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
90.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:109% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
90.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
90.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
90.0%
Timmy McClain run for 18 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+27
89.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 27 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:5485% → 88%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
85.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 13 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
86.4%
Tre Siggers run for 17 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
86.6%
QB Keeper MORDECAI, Tanner rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards to the USF41 (GRIER, Antonio), out of bounds. PENALTY USF Personal Foul on GRIER, Antonio enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the USF41 to the USF26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
86.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
86.6%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+9
86.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
86.6%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
86.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
86.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for no gain to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
87.9%
Blake Mazza 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0112% → 11%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.7%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass up the middle incomplete intended for WEAVER, Xavier thrown to the SMU30. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jahari enforced 15 yards to the USF40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
86.9%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+3
87.7%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
87.6%
Timmy McClain sacked by Delano Robinson for 0 yards to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 22
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 45 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for no gain to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
89.2%
SIGGERS, Tre rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the SMU49 (BOYLES, Dwayne). PENALTY USF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BELLAMY, Damaurez enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the SMU49 to the USF36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 2:3089% → 96%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
89.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+11
89.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
89.0%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
89.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 11 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.9%
Tre Siggers run for 13 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15DOWNS TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:565% → 12%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
94.8%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left incomplete intended for WEAVER, Xavier thrown to the SMU31. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jahari enforced 15 yards to the SMU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
94.7%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
94.7%
Timmy McClain sacked by Gary Wiley for 0 yards to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+34
95.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 34 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
94.0%
Brian Battie run for 14 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
94.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.1%
run for 5 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3490% → 89%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
90.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 13 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
90.4%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+2
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
88.8%
Matt Fraanje punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1011% → 11%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
89.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 18 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
87.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Dustyn Hall) to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+4
89.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+2
88.5%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the SFla 41 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
89.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 9 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:4491% → 97%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
50
+1
90.6%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+42
90.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 42 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
90.8%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:193% → 2%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.0%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
96.9%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
97.0%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.6%
LAVINE, Tyler rush up the middle for no gain to the USF30 (GREEN, Blake;MANGUM, Thad). PENALTY Before the snap, USF Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USF30 to the USF25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:0498% → 99%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 5
OPP 25
0
97.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+9
97.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 9 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
97.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
97.6%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.6%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:591% → 1%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:0199% → 100%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
99.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 18 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-2
99.5%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+3
99.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 9
OWN 45
-5
99.4%
SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Brendan Hall punt for 51 yds, downed at the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
99.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:50
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-8.1
TD · Q3 0:29
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q4 9:32
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com