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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreMEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · Timeout TEMPLE, clock 00:30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:37: D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 15 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +9.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 7:15: Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 2 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle PAT BLOCKED) — MEM win probability +10.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:14: Tayvon Ruley 1 Yd Run (Rory Bell Kick) — TEM win probability +20.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:16: Rory Bell 32 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +11.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:30: Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Calvin Austin III for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +15.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:30TEM 4th & 8 at MEM 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.9%−<0.134% to convertField goal26.9%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q1 5:21MEM 4th & 8 at TEM 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snapGo for it70.7%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call70.8%90% to makePunt69.5%−1.3average punt
- Q1 1:29TEM 4th & 3 at MEM 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.4%52% to convertField goal30.1%−0.360% to makePunt28.3%−2.1average punt
- Q2 12:46TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt24.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 12:38TEM 4th & 1 at MEM 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.9%71% to convertField goal19.7%−1.256% to makePunt18.9%−2.0average punt
- Q2 5:03TEM 4th & 1 at MEM 1, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.4%59% to convertField goal18.3%−1.194% to makePunt15.5%−3.9average punt
- Q2 2:07MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 27, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it63.0%−1.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.7%average punt
- Q2 0:00TEM 4th & 5 at MEM 18, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snapGo for it35.3%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call35.6%79% to makePunt28.2%−7.4average punt
- Q3 13:31MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snapGo for it58.5%−2.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%average punt
- Q3 11:55TEM 4th & 6 at MEM 31, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snapGo for it43.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call42.9%−0.254% to makePunt41.3%−1.8average punt
- Q3 1:14TEM 4th & 1 at MEM 1, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.2%59% to convertField goal25.9%−5.294% to makePunt12.1%−19.1average punt
- Q4 11:47TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 38, up 1Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it55.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 9:52MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it38.0%−3.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.5%average punt
- Q4 6:16TEM 4th & 5 at MEM 15, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.539% to convertField goalTheir call60.7%83% to makePunt40.7%−20.1average punt
- Q4 2:53MEM 4th & 6 at TEM 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.5%40% to convertField goal20.3%−2.328% to makePunt17.7%−4.9average punt
- Q4 2:05MEM 4th & 11 at TEM 39, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%27% to convertField goal4.4%−0.636% to makePunt4.4%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q2 14:54MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.5%97% to makeGo for two74.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:38MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.4%97% to makeGo for two79.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:03TEM Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.5%97% to makeGo for two24.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:37TEM Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.5%97% to makeGo for two33.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:15MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call71.7%97% to makeGo for two71.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:14TEM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.8%97% to makeGo for two47.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 2:35TEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two94.9%45% to convert
- Q4 0:30MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick10.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call9.8%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 4:3022% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for 2 yds to the Temp 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
22.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 15 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
24.7%
Adam Barry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2FG17 plays · 84 yds · 5:0975% → 74%
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
24.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 4 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+5
24.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
24.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 9 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+11
24.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 11 yds to the Temp 42Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
24.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 3 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+31
24.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Cameron Wright for 31 yds to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3DOWNS8 plays · 51 yds · 3:4626% → 28%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
26.2%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 5 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
26.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Kyle Dobbins for 2 yds to the Temp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
26.3%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 34 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
27.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 4 yds to the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD7 plays · 72 yds · 1:3572% → 77%
TEMDrive 5DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0124% → 23%
Q2 14:47
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+13
23.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to De'Von Fox for 13 yds to the Temp 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD1 play · 35 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 9
OPP 35
+35
16.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 35 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7DOWNS17 plays · 75 yds · 7:3519% → 24%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Kyle Dobbins for 9 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
18.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 4 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
19.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
50
0
19.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
50
+11
19.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 11 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
19.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Kadas Reams for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+8
19.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 8 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
19.7%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 4 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
19.7%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for 5 yds to the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2877% → 77%
TEMDrive 9TD3 plays · 17 yds · 0:5326% → 35%
MEMDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:2269% → 67%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
30.8%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for DYKES, Sean thrown to the TEM34. PENALTY MEM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PARHAM, Dylan enforced 5 yards from the MEM32 to the MEM27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+51
33.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 51 yds , Jadan Blue returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11FG10 plays · 46 yds · 2:0733% → 40%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
33.3%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Tayvon Ruley for 9 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
34.3%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
35.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Tayvon Ruley for 6 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+20
35.6%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 20 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
36.4%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for 4 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+1
35.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 1 yd to the Memph 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2964% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
33.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left complete for 5 yards to CLARK, Rodrigues caught at the MEM44 and advanced to the MEM46 (KWENKEU, William). PENALTY MEM Holding on DALE, Matt enforced 10 yards from the MEM41 to the MEM31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
38.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jadan Blue at the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13MISSED FG5 plays · 43 yds · 1:3641% → 42%
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
44.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Trey Blair for 4 yds to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4063% → 77%
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+17
37.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 17 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for no gain to the Temp 48Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+7
35.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 7 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 14 yds to the Temp 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
33.5%
HENIGAN, Seth pass up the middle incomplete intended for IVORY, Javon thrown to the TEM15. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on RIGBY, Yvandy enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the TEM19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
33.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the Temp 14Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 2 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15DOWNS13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0130% → 54%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for no gain to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
30.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 12 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+19
33.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jadan Blue for 19 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
35.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+21
35.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 21 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.6%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1448% → 55%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
51.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+23
48.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 23 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.3%
Kylan Watkins run for 3 yds fumbled, recovered by Temp M.J. GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2154% → 54%
MEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5546% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19FG10 plays · 71 yds · 3:3657% → 77%
Q4 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-2
57.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Trey Blair for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 16Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+11
54.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Edward Saydee for 11 yds to the Temp 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+53
57.1%
Edward Saydee run for 38 yds to the TEMPLE 35 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Quindell Johnson) to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
64.2%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 4 yds to the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 32 yds · 3:2335% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21TD5 plays · 57 yds · 0:1388% → 97%
MEMDrive 22TD15 plays · 75 yds · 2:054% → 19%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.4%
HENIGAN, Seth pass up the middle incomplete intended for LEWIS, Eddie thrown to the TEM37. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on PAUL, Keyshawn enforced 15 yards to the MEM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
95.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 22 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+4
97.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 4 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 11
OPP 39
+16
97.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 16 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
96.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 3 yds to the Temp 20Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+12
95.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 12 yds to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.8%
Seth Henigan sacked by Kevin Robertson for 0 yards to the Temp 12Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
96.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 3 yds to the Temp 9Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Calvin Austin III for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+22.9
TD · Q3 1:14
Tayvon Ruley 1 Yd Run (Rory Bell Kick)
+20.7
TD · Q4 0:30
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Henigan pass to Calvin Austin III for Two-Point Conversion)
-15.4