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TULN

Tulane 29 at East Carolina 52

ECU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:38 · Ryan Wright punt for 29 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+0.4Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:21: Keaton Mitchell run for 68 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +10.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:18: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 53 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +11.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:43: Michael Pratt run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Pratt pass to Tyrick James for Two-Point Conversion) — TULN win probability +9.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:39: Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (M. Pratt Run For Two-point Conversion) — TULN win probability +9.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:33: Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +8.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 1 at TULN 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49ECU 4th & 5 at TULN 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:38TULN 4th & 11 at TULN 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:01TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:46TULN 4th & 26 at TULN 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:18ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:18TULN 4th & 2 at ECU 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.1%−2.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:15ECU 4th & 9 at TULN 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:20ECU 4th & 6 at TULN 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−8.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:03TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:07TULN 4th & 1 at ECU 41, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%−0.6
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%
    32% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:01ECU 4th & 14 at TULN 31, up 16
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:01ECU 4th & 14 at TULN 31, up 16
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:33TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 29, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:06ECU 4th & 1 at TULN 21, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−1.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−5.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:26ECU 4th & 4 at TULN 28, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:26TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 28, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 5:03ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:18ECU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:38TULN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:36ECU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:43TULN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:39TULN Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:33ECU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:15ECU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:53TULN Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:06ECU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1143% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+62
42.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 62 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
42.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Tulan 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+1
42.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Tulan 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+2
42.6%
Mason Garcia run for 2 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
42.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by JoJo Dorceus for 0 yards to the Tulan 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
42.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
42.6%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the right incomplete intended for SNEAD, Tyler thrown to the TLN0. PENALTY TLN Offsides on ANDERSON, Angelo enforced 5 yards from the TLN10 to the TLN5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
44.4%
Owen Daffer 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0656% → 54%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
44.3%
Cameron Carroll run for 4 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
44.3%
Cameron Carroll run for 8 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.3%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
44.3%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-2
44.5%
Michael Pratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 26Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
45.8%
Ryan Wright punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:3546% → 51%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
45.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 13 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
45.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+19
45.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 19 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
45.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+8
45.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the Tulan 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
45.8%
HARRIS, Rahjai rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the TLN3 (KERR, Ajani). PENALTY ECU Holding on HENDERSON, Noah enforced 10 yards from the TLN7 to the TLN17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
0
45.8%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Tulan 17Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
50.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 17 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5851% → 48%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
49.1%
Ygenio Booker run for 2 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
49.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 5 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+6
50.4%
Ygenio Booker run for 6 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
49.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Michael Pratt for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 27Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+6
50.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 6 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+2
50.7%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
52.2%
Ryan Wright punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4051% → 61%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
50.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 12 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
60.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 68 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:3141% → 37%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
59.2%
Cameron Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 22Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+2
59.3%
Cameron Carroll run for 2 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
62.4%
Michael Pratt sacked by Jireh Wilson and Jeremy Lewis for 0 yards to the Tulan 7Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 26
OWN 7
0
63.1%
Ryan Wright punt for 54 yds, downed at the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:2864% → 75%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.7%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
63.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+8
62.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+53
74.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 53 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4028% → 35%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 8 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
70.5%
Michael Pratt sacked by Rick D'Abreu and Aaron Ramseur for 0 yards to the Tulan 31Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
71.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 22 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.3%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
70.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+10
71.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 10 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
70.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Will Wallace for 3 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
70.1%
Michael Pratt run for 6 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+14
69.1%
Ygenio Booker run for 14 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
64.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 16 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
70.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
69.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5573% → 74%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.3%
Tyler Snead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
73.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Tulan 37Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
72.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+11
71.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
73.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-10
73.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Noah Henderson) to the Tulan 33Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+11
73.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 11 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
72.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
73.6%
Owen Daffer 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1728% → 26%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
71.8%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+19
72.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 19 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.6%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-2
70.9%
Jaetavian Toles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
72.1%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
73.8%
Ryan Wright punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
17 plays · 76 yds · 3:2776% → 91%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
75.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+13
75.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 13 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
79.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
79.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 6 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
80.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+5
80.3%
TULANE Penalty, Offsides (Noah Seiden) to the Tulan 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
81.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Nishad Strother) to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+6
81.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-4
82.1%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 13
50
+41
82.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 41 yds to the Tulan 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
84.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 6 yds to the Tulan 3Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 3 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:299% → 11%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
91.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
50
+4
90.2%
Michael Pratt run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
90.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 5 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
88.1%
Michael Pratt pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gainSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
89.4%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1713% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
87.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 40 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
85.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Cameron Carroll for 8 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
85.4%
Cameron Carroll run for no gain to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-4
86.2%
Tyjae Spears run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+11
86.8%
PRATT, Michael pass to the left incomplete intended for WATTS, Phat thrown to the ECU20. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on SABA, Warren enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the ECU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.4%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
85.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 9 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
86.2%
Michael Pratt run for 3 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
85.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the ECaro 7Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.6%
Michael Pratt run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Pratt pass to Tyrick James for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:4282% → 86%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
82.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 23 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
82.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
83.1%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 44Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+3
82.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
82.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 9 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+5
81.8%
AHLERS, Holton pass up the middle incomplete intended for SNEAD, Tyler thrown to the TLN10. PENALTY TLN Offsides on COOPER JR, Keith enforced 5 yards from the TLN32 to the TLN27 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
83.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Adonis Friloux and Marvin Moody for 0 yards to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
82.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
82.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 14
OPP 31
0
86.3%
Holton Ahlers punt for 22 yds, downed at the Tulan 9Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 14
OPP 31
0
86.3%
Holton Ahlers punt for 22 yds, downed at the Tulan 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:2216% → 28%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
83.9%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+12
84.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 12 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
83.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 9 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
83.9%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
83.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 19 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+47
82.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 47 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.3%
Ygenio Booker run for 1 yd to the ECaro 1Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.3%
Michael Pratt run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.6%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (M. Pratt Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0680% → 94%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
80.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 16 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
81.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 14 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
82.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
82.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
83.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+3
83.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
83.1%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the left complete for 21 yards to OMOTOSHO, Audie caught at the TLN5 and advanced to the TLN1 (CANDY, Jadon). PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on OMOTOSHO, Audie enforced 15 yards to the TLN37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 25
OPP 37
+8
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+24
85.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 24 yds to the Tulan 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the Tulan 1Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:279% → 8%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Michael Pratt for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.1%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.3%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+12
91.8%
Ryan Wright pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 12 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.9%
Michael Pratt pass intercepted return for no gain to the Tulan 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:5195% → 99%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
95.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 8 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
95.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Tulan 21Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
95.0%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Tulan 21Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
94.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Tulan 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
95.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
95.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Tulan 14Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
99.0%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Ryan Jones for 14 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:221% → 6%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 5 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
98.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 9 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+59
98.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Cameron Carroll for 59 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds for a TD (M. Pratt Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2597% → 99%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
96.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 10 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
97.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
97.0%
Mason Garcia run for 4 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Mason Garcia run for no gain to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 4
OPP 28
0
98.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:463% → 3%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
97.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for no gain to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
97.0%
Ygenio Booker run for no gain to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+16
97.1%
Michael Pratt run for 16 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.2%
Michael Pratt pass intercepted return for no gain to the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:3499% → 100%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
99.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 28 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
99.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 30 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 5 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Tulan 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:18
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 53 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q1 1:21
Keaton Mitchell run for 68 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 10:43
Michael Pratt run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Pratt pass to Tyrick James for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com