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UCF

UCF 30 at Navy 34

NAVY
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:49 · Andrew Osteen punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−10.6Home team on offense−18.1Garbage-time factor−6.7Score differential−8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:26: Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 23 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +4.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Daniel Obarski 28 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +4.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:55: Joey Gatewood run for 10 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +13.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:45: Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +21.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 3:09: Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +52.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:24NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:24NAVY 4th & 2 at UCF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:12NAVY 4th & 5 at UCF 7, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:26NAVY 4th & 11 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:34UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00UCF 4th & 1 at NAVY 11, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%−1.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−7.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:41NAVY 4th & 6 at UCF 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:54UCF 4th & 12 at NAVY 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%−2.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:49NAVY 4th & 6 at UCF 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:49UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:34UCF 4th & 15 at NAVY 17, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:24UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:14NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:56UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:26UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:55UCF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:45NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:09NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
13.4%
Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-12
13.4%
HARRIS II, J rush for 3 yards to the NAVY27 (Montalvo, Antho), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (BANBURY, Pierce) 12 yards to the NAVY12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+2
13.4%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
13.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:1014% → 19%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
13.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
13.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
13.9%
Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
13.9%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+4
13.9%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
14.0%
Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
14.0%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
14.0%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+3
13.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
14.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
14.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+6
14.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
16.1%
Chance Warren run for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
16.1%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
16.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
18.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1882% → 83%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.1%
Trillion Coles run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
18.0%
Amari Johnson run for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
17.8%
Trillion Coles run for 1 yd to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
17.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+34
17.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 34 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
17.2%
Richardson, Joh rush for 1 yard to the NAVY25 (FAGOT, Diego;BERNIARD JR., D), PENALTY NAVY offside (FLETCHER, Tyler) 5 yards to the NAVY21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 5
OPP 21
-5
17.1%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Mikey Keene) to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
17.2%
Trillion Coles run for 7 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-2
17.1%
Trillion Coles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+5
17.4%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Diego Fagot) to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
16.7%
Amari Johnson run for 16 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:4418% → 23%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
17.8%
Carlinos Acie run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
18.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+8
18.8%
Carlinos Acie run for 8 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
19.0%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
19.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
19.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+14
19.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 14 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
19.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+6
19.8%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
19.2%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
19.8%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
19.8%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+5
19.2%
Carlinos Acie run for 5 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
23.0%
Bijan Nichols 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:4679% → 85%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
21.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+14
21.2%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 14 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
20.9%
Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+10
20.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 10 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
20.2%
Joey Gatewood run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
15.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 23 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
16.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
16.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper, broken up by Divaad WilsonSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
17.0%
Jayden Umbarger run for 15 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
17.9%
Tyger Goslin run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-3
18.0%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Josh Celiscar for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 11
50
0
17.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to James Harris IISimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 11
50
0
16.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0183% → 74%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
16.8%
Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
16.9%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Amari JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
17.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
26.3%
Andrew Osteen punt blocked by Michael McMorris blocked by Michael McMorris Daniel Taylor return for no gain for a TD (Zach Rodriguez KICK) Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste kickoff , 2J return for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 22 2J run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 24 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (J'arius Warren) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down 1M pass complete to Zachary Kuhlman for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 47 1M pass complete to Zachary Kuhlman for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 42 3T run for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 33 3T fumbled, forced by Ricky Barber, recovered by UCF Brandon Johnson (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 1:3475% → 81%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
24.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (J'arius Warren) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
23.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+11
22.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 11 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
22.3%
Trillion Coles run for 8 yds to the Navy 33 Trillion Coles fumbled, forced by Michael McMorris, recovered by UCF Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+18
22.7%
Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Diego Fagot) to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
21.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 5 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-5
22.0%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
22.2%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-9
21.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 1 yd to the Navy 14 UCF Penalty, illegal block (Cam Goode) to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
22.7%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Amari JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+13
23.3%
Daniel Obarski run for 13 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
18.7%
Daniel Obarski 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
20.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
20.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
21.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 49 yds , Chance Warren returns for 12 yds to the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:5724% → 25%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
23.7%
Carlinos Acie run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+11
24.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
25.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
25.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+11
25.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
26.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-3
27.2%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+9
25.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-5
24.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Darrellson Masaniai) to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+4
24.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 1:4079% → 77%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
20.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
21.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 13 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
19.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
19.4%
Joey Gatewood run for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+7
20.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.6%
Ryan O'Keefe run for no gain to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-4
19.7%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+7
21.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-5
21.1%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Mikey Keene) to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
22.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Navy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
23.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+5
23.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 10
-1
22.7%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10 Tai Lavatai fumbled, forced by Cam Goode, recovered by UCF Quadric BullardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
8.9%
Joey Gatewood run for 10 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:0613% → 17%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
13.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
13.4%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 6 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
13.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+49
13.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 49 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
15.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
15.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
14.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
14.1%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
16.9%
Bijan Nichols 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
17.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1518% → 41%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
18.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
19.4%
James Harris II run for 12 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
19.7%
Carlinos Acie run for 9 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
19.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
19.6%
Jayden Umbarger run for 3 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
19.6%
Chance Warren run for 8 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
28.1%
Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
27.3%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+20
28.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 20 yds Brandon Johnson fumbled, forced by Diego Fagot, recovered by Navy Taylor RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:1938% → 88%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
38.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Chance Warren) to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 14
OWN 43
+7
34.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
50
+2
38.6%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+7
38.1%
Tyger Goslin run for 7 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
39.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+7
39.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
41.5%
James Harris II run for 14 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
41.5%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+3
41.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+2
38.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+5
35.9%
UCF Penalty, Defensive offside (Big Kat Bryant) to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20INT
13 plays · 53 yds · 2:3526% → 15%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
74.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
71.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 8 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
70.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
69.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 19 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
65.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+7
65.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
65.8%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
65.8%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-5
79.6%
Amari Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 15
OPP 17
0
85.4%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted, touchback. Taylor Robinson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0195% → 96%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:09
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+52.1
TD · Q4 9:45
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+21
TD · Q3 2:55
Joey Gatewood run for 10 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com