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HOU

Houston 45 at Tulsa 10

TLSA
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2021 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:52 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 55 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 11 yds to the Houst 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:23: Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +4.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:14: Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 47 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +5.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:01: Alton McCaskill run for 27 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +11.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:33: Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +6.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 1:22: Zack Long 33 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +5.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:31HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35TLSA 4th & 22 at TLSA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−1.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:12HOU 4th & 5 at TLSA 45, up 28
    Close callPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:51TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:22TLSA 4th & 10 at HOU 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:59TLSA 4th & 19 at TLSA 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:19HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 43, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:27TLSA 4th & 13 at HOU 35, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:37HOU 4th & 2 at TLSA 27, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:33TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:12HOU 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:19HOU 4th & 9 at TLSA 31, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:48TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:53HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 27, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 4:23HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:01HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:33HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:06HOU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55HOU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:26TLSA Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1KICKOFF
10 plays · 0 yds · 3:0943% → 43%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
57.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 13 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
57.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
57.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-5
57.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+11
57.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
57.0%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
57.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
57.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
57.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, downed at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2457% → 57%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
57.2%
Brin, Davis pass incomplete to Stokes, Keylon, PENALTY HOUSTON personal foul (Rogers, Jayce) 15 yards to the TULSA36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
57.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-10
57.6%
Davis Brin sacked by Logan Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+8
57.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+11
56.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 55 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 11 yds to the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:1743% → 48%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
57.1%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
57.2%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joseph Anderson) to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
57.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+14
57.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
56.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
56.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 6 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
56.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Kody Russey) to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+40
56.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 40 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
55.8%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyarise Stevenson) to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+9
55.8%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Dell, Nathaniel, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (Martin, TieNeal) 9 yards to the TULSA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.7%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:3953% → 51%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
53.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
53.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
52.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 7
OWN 40
-15
52.5%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (JuanCarlos Santana) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+2
51.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 52 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 2 yds to the Houst 27 HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:1148% → 55%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
52.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 10 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
50.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
45.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 47 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5647% → 47%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
46.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 25 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
47.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
47.1%
Davis Brin run for 5 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
47.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-13
46.6%
Davis Brin run for a loss of 13 yards to the Houst 44 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Tyler SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:4957% → 70%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
42.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 1 yd to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+28
42.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 28 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
30.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 27 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1734% → 32%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
34.1%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
33.3%
Davis Brin run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
32.4%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Damarion Williams return for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3172% → 81%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
27.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 18
OPP 40
+21
26.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cullen Wick) to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
25.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+17
24.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4718% → 17%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
17.3%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
16.5%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Alex Hogan return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2283% → 82%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
50
0
17.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Alton McCaskillSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
50
-5
17.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+10
17.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
17.3%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
17.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5615% → 18%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
15.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
14.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 5 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
18.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+47
17.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 48 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 47 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:1785% → 86%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
15.0%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-1
14.0%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
14.2%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted, touchback. Jaise Oliver return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:5020% → 12%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
19.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 41 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
27.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
28.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
18.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
18.9%
Davis Brin sacked by Logan Hall and Latrell Bankston for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 16
OPP 34
+5
17.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+14
19.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 14 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
19.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
18.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
17.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
11.9%
Zack Long 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3495% → 93%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
5.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
6.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16INT TD
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:467% → 6%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
7.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-45
6.6%
Davis Brin pass intercepted for a TD Gervarrius Owens return for 45 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
5.6%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 3:516% → 4%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
6.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-4
5.6%
Davis Brin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+11
5.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
5.3%
Brin, Davis pass complete to Watkins, Anthony for 22 yards to the HOUSTON44, PENALTY TULSA holding 10 yards to the TULSA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+3
4.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 17
OWN 27
-10
4.4%
Brin, Davis pass complete to Santana, JuanCarlos for 40 yards to the HOUSTON33, PENALTY TULSA holding (Smith, Tyler) 10 yards to the TULSA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 27
OWN 17
0
4.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 27
OWN 17
+8
4.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 8 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 19
OWN 25
+15
3.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 15 yds to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2597% → 97%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.2%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
3.2%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
3.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Alton McCaskillSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
3.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:463% → 2%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
2.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
2.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+40
2.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 40 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
2.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 7 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-5
2.7%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+11
2.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 11 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
2.6%
Watkins, Anthony rush for 4 yards to the HOUSTON28, PENALTY TULSA holding (Smith, Tyler) 10 yards to the HOUSTON42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 20
OPP 42
-5
2.4%
Davis Brin sacked by D'Anthony Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 47 Davis Brin fumbled, forced by D'Anthony Jones, recovered by Tulsa Davis Brin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 25
OPP 47
0
2.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 25
OPP 47
+12
2.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 12 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 13
OPP 35
-8
1.9%
Davis Brin sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:5998% → 99%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
1.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
1.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-1
1.3%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+10
1.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.9%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
0.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
0.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
0.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Seth Green for 8 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:161% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
0.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+21
0.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt blocked by Jake Herslow. Downed at the Houston 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
1.0%
Ogbogu, Ike pass incomplete to Singleton, Jeremy, PENALTY TULSA holding 10 yards to the TULSA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
0.9%
Chandler Smith run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
0.8%
Chandler Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
0.8%
Ike Ogbogu pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-5
0.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (Ike Ogbogu) to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 16
OPP 37
+9
0.8%
Chandler Smith run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
0.9%
Dalton Witherspoon 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
0.3%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+16
0.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 16 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
0.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
0.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Anthony WatkinsSimilar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
0.2%
Brin, Davis pass incomplete to Jones, Malachai, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 15 yards to the HOUSTON41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
0.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 41 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:45100% → 100%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.4%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
0.4%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 15 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
0.3%
TULSA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
0.3%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Ike Ogbogu run for no gain to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
0.3%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Jake Herslow for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
0.2%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
0.2%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-5
0.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
0.2%
Ike Ogbogu pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
0.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
0.1%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ezra Naylor IISimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.2%
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
0.2%
Chandler Smith run for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Ike Ogbogu pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+4
0.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 52 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
0.1%
Steven Anderson run for 21 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
0.1%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:01
Alton McCaskill run for 27 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 9:33
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q1 1:14
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 47 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com