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USF

South Florida 27 at BYU 35

BYU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:00 · Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the BYU 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+8.2Home team on offense+22.1Score differential+9.2Garbage-time factor+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.1Time remaining+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:06: Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK) — BYU win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:25: Xavier Weaver run for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +5.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:40: Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 47 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK) — BYU win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:03: Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +5.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:41: Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +6.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:00USF 4th & 4 at USF 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:16BYU 4th & 1 at USF 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:53USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:20BYU 4th & 1 at USF 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15USF 4th & 3 at BYU 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:41USF 4th & 9 at BYU 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:04BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 47, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57USF 4th & 5 at BYU 25, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.5%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00USF 4th & 3 at USF 32, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:25USF 4th & 3 at BYU 3, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:49USF 4th & 1 at BYU 43, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:46BYU 4th & 5 at USF 5, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:00USF 4th & 1 at BYU 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:41USF 4th & 1 at BYU 1, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:05BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:16BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:20BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:06BYU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:25USF Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:40BYU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:03USF Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:41USF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4992% → 91%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+49
91.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 49 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
91.2%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+14
91.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 14 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
91.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 5 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:599% → 9%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.2%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
91.1%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+14
91.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 14 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
91.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 9 yds to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:3691% → 92%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+55
91.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 55 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
91.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
91.0%
Baylor Romney run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 5Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
90.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 4 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:189% → 9%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.3%
Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
91.3%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
91.4%
Timmy McClain run for no gain to the SFla 34 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by BYU Lorenzo FauateaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:2792% → 93%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.8%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
91.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+7
91.8%
Baylor Romney run for 7 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
91.9%
Baylor Romney run for 13 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
91.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 9 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Blake Green) to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.0%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.9%
Samson Nacua run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:287% → 7%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
93.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
93.6%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+11
93.7%
Timmy McClain run for 11 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
93.7%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+20
93.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 20 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
93.7%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 12
50
+5
94.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Brian Battie for 5 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
94.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Randal Copeland for 4 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+28
94.1%
Timmy McClain run for 18 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ammon Hannemann) to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
93.8%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
94.1%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
94.5%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
92.6%
Spencer Shrader 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3793% → 93%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
93.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
93.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
93.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
93.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
93.7%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+4
93.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
93.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:007% → 9%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Brian Battie for 6 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
92.9%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SFla 33 Brian Battie fumbled, forced by Chaz Ah You, recovered by SFla Demetris Harris for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.0%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
93.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dustyn Hall) to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+16
93.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 16 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+9
92.7%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
92.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
92.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
92.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 10 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.7%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
91.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 5 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
92.1%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
91.5%
Spencer Shrader 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4193% → 98%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
93.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 10 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
93.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-10
93.5%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Tukuafu) to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+25
93.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 25 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
93.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 11 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
93.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Masen Wake for 7 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+15
93.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daquan Evans) to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
96.3%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+42
96.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 53 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 42 yds to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:274% → 8%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
96.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
96.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 11 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+17
96.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 17 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
96.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
96.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
96.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
96.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 9 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
96.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
96.8%
Timmy McClain sacked by Earl Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
96.8%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
97.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.2%
Xavier Weaver run for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3994% → 98%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
94.4%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+13
94.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
98.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 47 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:322% → 8%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
98.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
98.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
98.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+26
98.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 26 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
98.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 6 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+9
98.1%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kaleb Hayes) to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1996% → 96%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
96.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
96.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 13 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
96.4%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 27 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
96.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 14 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
96.7%
Samson Nacua run for 3 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.8%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.7%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
96.3%
Justen Smith 22 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Darrien GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
20 plays · 94 yds · 8:595% → 10%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+17
95.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 17 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
95.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+2
95.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+8
95.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 8 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
95.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 14 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.1%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
95.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 6 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
95.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
95.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 13 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
95.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
95.4%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+5
95.7%
Timmy McClain run for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+1
95.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
95.4%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+17
95.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 17 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.7%
Timmy McClain run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.8%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.4%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18END OF GAME
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:5895% → 97%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
95.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
95.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
96.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
96.7%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 6 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
96.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
96.6%
Baylor Romney run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 28 Baylor Romney fumbled, recovered by BYU Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+1
97.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+4
97.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the SFla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:41
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-6
TD · Q3 3:03
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q3 7:25
Xavier Weaver run for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com