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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadGRAM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreGRAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:33 · Garrett Urban punt for 30 yds, downed at the Houst 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- PUNT · Q1 3:54: Laine Wilkins punt for 55 yds, downed at the Gramb 25 — GRAM win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q1 0:15: Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:23: Alton McCaskill run for 17 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:11: Ike Ogbogu pass incomplete — HOU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:54: Alton McCaskill run for 34 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6GRAM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
- Q1 12:20HOU 4th & 13 at GRAM 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%60% to makePunt98.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 11:09GRAM 4th & 7 at GRAM 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 7:43GRAM 4th & 7 at HOU 42, tiedClose callPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%37% to convertField goal1.9%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call1.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:17GRAM 4th & 6 at GRAM 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 12:37HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 48, up 7Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:40GRAM 4th & 7 at GRAM 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 8:26GRAM 4th & 24 at GRAM 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 5:23HOU 4th & 1 at GRAM 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.2%71% to convertField goal96.9%−0.380% to makePunt96.1%−1.2average punt
- Q2 3:40GRAM 4th & 1 at GRAM 34, down 21Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:24HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 18, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q2 1:11GRAM 4th & 9 at HOU 44, down 21Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%32% to convertField goal1.3%−<0.127% to makePuntTheir call1.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:53GRAM 4th & 18 at GRAM 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 10:33GRAM 4th & 3 at GRAM 26, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:09GRAM 4th & 3 at GRAM 32, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:48GRAM 4th & 4 at GRAM 22, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:10HOU 4th & 4 at GRAM 4, up 42Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:52GRAM 4th & 6 at GRAM 29, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 2:08HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 42, up 45Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 0:15HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:23HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:54HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:01HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:03HOU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHOUDrive 1MISSED FG8 plays · 42 yds · 2:3599% → 99%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
99.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Gramb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
99.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 17 yds to the Gramb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:111% → 1%
HOUDrive 3INT3 plays · 0 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
GRAMDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
98.8%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Casey Warming for 6 yds to the Gramb 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4999% → 98%
Q1 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+17
98.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+13
98.6%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
98.6%
MCCASKILL, Alton rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the HOU50 (MARTIN, Devanir). PENALTY HOU Holding on FREEMAN, Jack enforced 10 yards from the HOU45 to the HOU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 34
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Ike Ogbogu sacked by Javon Carter and Blake Thomas for 0 yards to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 6FUMBLE4 plays · 22 yds · 1:332% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD8 plays · 47 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
98.0%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Gramb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.1%
OGBOGU, Ike pass to the right incomplete intended for HERSLOW, Jake thrown to the GSU8. PENALTY GSU Offsides on HARDY, Jaden enforced 5 yards from the GSU34 to the GSU29 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
98.1%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Christian Trahan for a loss of 3 yards to the Gramb 21Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
98.1%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:432% → 2%
Q2 14:17
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+41
98.0%
Garrett Urban punt for 31 yds for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4098% → 98%
Q2 14:17
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-10
98.0%
MCCASKILL, Alton rush up the middle for a gain of 24 yards to the GSU25 (FIELDS, Ryan). PENALTY HOU Holding on RUSSEY, Kody enforced 10 yards from the GSU49 to the HOU41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 3 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q2 10:40
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+48
98.0%
Garrett Urban punt for 37 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 48 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus Jones) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
97.8%
Aldon Clark sacked by Latrell Bankston for 0 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 24
OWN 48
+5
97.8%
Garrett Urban punt for 37 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 5 yds to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q2 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
98.0%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+37
98.0%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 37 yds to the Gramb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+17
99.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 17 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q2 5:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
98.9%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Darqueze Brutton for 5 yds to the Gramb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q2 2:24
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
98.8%
Aldon Clark pass complete to Donald Johnson III for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+14
98.8%
Garrett Urban punt for 29 yds GRAMBLING Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on WHITMER-TORRES, Micah enforced at the deadball spot for (-15 Yards) to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · -5 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
GRAMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 2:071% → 1%
HOUDrive 18TD4 plays · 48 yds · 0:5999% → 100%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 34 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:150% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD7 plays · 56 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q3 10:33
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+16
99.8%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 16 yds to the Gramb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
99.8%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 4 yds to the Gramb 32Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q3 5:09
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Garrett Urban punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD7 plays · 58 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q3 5:09
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
GRAMBLING Penalty, Offsides (Blake Thomas) to the Gramb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
99.9%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 23 yds to the Gramb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+10
99.9%
GRAMBLING Penalty, Face mask (10 yards) (Toddrick Paul) to the Gramb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 14:48
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+5
100.0%
Garrett Urban punt for 49 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 5 yds to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FG16 plays · 62 yds · 8:38100% → 100%
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+27
99.9%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Jake Herslow for 27 yds to the Gramb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+9
99.9%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Jake Herslow for 9 yds to the Gramb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+11
99.9%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Jake Herslow for 11 yds to the Gramb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
OGBOGU, Ike pass up the middle incomplete intended for CREAMER, Shane thrown to the GSU5. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on DARLING, Josh enforced at the spot of the foul for 2 yards to the GSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 3:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Garrett Urban punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 3:52
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-2
100.0%
Holman Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 42 fumbled, recovered by Houst Jamel StarksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:23
Alton McCaskill run for 17 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q3 11:54
Alton McCaskill run for 34 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+0.7
PUNT · Q1 3:54
Laine Wilkins punt for 55 yds, downed at the Gramb 25
-0.5