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AF

Air Force 23 at Navy 3

NAVY
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:59 · Charles Bein punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kevin Brennan at the Navy 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense−5.4Pregame prior−10.6Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:09: Brad Roberts run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +9.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:41: Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Navy 32 — AF win probability +5.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:32: Haaziq Daniels run for 28 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +14.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:33: Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 42 — AF win probability +4.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:13: Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +7.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 10 at AF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:13NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:21AF 4th & 10 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:12NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:16AF 4th & 13 at AF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:06NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 13 at AF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:36NAVY 4th & 6 at AF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:30AF 4th & 10 at AF 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:33AF 4th & 5 at NAVY 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−5.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:33NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:25NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:59AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 42, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%−2.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:06NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:32AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 44, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−3.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q3 6:07NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:23NAVY 4th & 11 at AF 11, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 1:09AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:32AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:13AF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
28.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
28.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
28.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
28.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
28.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (Haaziq Daniels) to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
28.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brad RobertsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
28.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson, broken up by Mitchell WestSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
28.6%
Charles Bein punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
30.4%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+7
30.4%
Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-6
30.3%
Xavier Arline sacked by Demonte Meeks for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 19 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
30.1%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
30.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 7
50
0
30.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle PattersonSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 7
50
+10
30.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
30.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
30.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-3
30.8%
Brad Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
31.3%
Charles Bein punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Kevin Brennan at the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
32.6%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+1
32.5%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-3
32.2%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 10 Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
32.0%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.8%
Micah Davis run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-7
32.9%
Micah Davis run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+4
33.8%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
34.0%
Charles Bein punt for 36 yds, downed at the Navy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
34.9%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
35.1%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
34.6%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
34.3%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 29 , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0565% → 64%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
34.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
35.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
35.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
36.0%
Charles Bein punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:3238% → 40%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
37.9%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
37.9%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+26
37.5%
Xavier Arline run for 26 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
38.3%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
38.3%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
37.7%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
39.9%
Bijan Nichols 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
40.5%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-3
40.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 18 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, recovered by AFA Haaziq DanielsSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+4
41.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+54
42.0%
Charles Bein punt for 54 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Kyle PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0062% → 58%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
38.4%
DeAndre Hughes run for 2 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
38.4%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+1
39.2%
Dane Kinamon run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
42.1%
Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.8%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
43.6%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
42.6%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
42.2%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:2658% → 69%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
41.8%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
41.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier, broken up by Will HarbourSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+15
42.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 15 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
40.9%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
40.9%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+15
41.9%
Micah Davis run for 15 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
40.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
40.9%
DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.4%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:4436% → 35%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.1%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
36.4%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
35.0%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
35.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds, downed at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
35.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
35.6%
ACIE, Carlinos rush for 9 yards to the NAVY34 (Sanford,Vince), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (COOPER, Mychal) 12 yards to the NAVY13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
35.4%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+9
35.3%
Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
34.2%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
33.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.2%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
33.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (DeAndre Hughes) to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+7
35.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
34.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 12 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
32.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
32.3%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
32.8%
Jorden Gidrey run for no gain to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
34.3%
Charles Bein punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kevin Brennan at the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
36.4%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-1
36.2%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
35.0%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
34.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
50
+1
32.9%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
33.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to DeAndre HughesSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+5
33.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
35.2%
Charles Bein punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.0%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
36.0%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-3
34.5%
Xavier Arline sacked by Demonte Meeks and Elijah Brockman for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
33.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0968% → 84%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
32.1%
Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
31.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-8
31.8%
Jorden Gidrey run for 2 yds to the AFA 44 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Micah Davis) to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+2
33.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 18
OWN 48
-4
34.3%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Clay Cromwell and J'arius Warren for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 22
OWN 44
+15
36.5%
Bein,Charles punt 54 yards to the NAVY2, downed, PENALTY NAVY roughing the kicker (JONES, Daniel) 15 yards to the NAVY41, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
31.2%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
29.7%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
15.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 28 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21SF
5 plays · -25 yds · 1:5919% → 15%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.7%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-9
17.9%
Chance Warren sacked by Ethan Erickson for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+9
16.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-23
14.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:2090% → 98%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.5%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+27
10.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 27 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
10.0%
Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
9.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+11
9.7%
Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
9.7%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.0%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:503% → 1%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
2.5%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 15 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
2.6%
Maasai Maynor run for 6 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+5
2.9%
Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
2.8%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
2.9%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Carlinos AcieSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+4
2.9%
MAYNOR, Maasai pass incomplete to WALKER, Mark, PENALTY AF pass interference (Kelly,Zion) 4 yards to the AF32, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
3.0%
MAYNOR, Maasai pass incomplete to GOSLIN, Tyger, PENALTY AF pass interference (Sanford,Vince) 14 yards to the AF18, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
3.0%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Chance Warren for 11 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
3.0%
Maasai Maynor sacked by Zion Kelly and Christopher Herrera for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
2.9%
Maasai Maynor run for 1 yd to the AFA 11Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
2.8%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper, broken up by Vince SanfordSimilar
Q4 5:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
1.3%
Maasai Maynor sacked by Elijah Brockman and Demonte Meeks for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:5099% → 99%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
1.3%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
1.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+5
1.2%
Micah Davis run for 5 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
1.2%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
1.2%
Brad Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
1.2%
Omar Fattah run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-1
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:32
Haaziq Daniels run for 28 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q2 1:09
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q4 9:13
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com