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MUR

Murray State 7 at Cincinnati 42

CIN
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:03 · Louis Halton punt for 40 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+22.7Home team on offense+18.2Score differential+5.8Garbage-time factor+4.2Blowout margin+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:41: Preston Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Baum KICK) — MUR win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:41: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Noah Davis for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:05: Jerome Ford run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +4.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:58: Jerome Ford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:13: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:12CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:43CIN 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:41CIN 4th & 2 at MUR 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:50CIN 4th & 6 at MUR 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:42MUR 4th & 1 at CIN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:17MUR 4th & 7 at CIN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:06MUR 4th & 7 at MUR 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:03MUR 4th & 11 at MUR 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:59MUR 4th & 3 at MUR 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:35MUR 4th & 9 at MUR 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:04CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:21MUR 4th & 11 at MUR 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:15CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 48, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:41MUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:41CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:05CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:58CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:13CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:50CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:08CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1INT
14 plays · 53 yds · 7:082% → 3%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
98.1%
Preston Rice pass complete to Deshun Britten for 11 yds to the MurrS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
98.0%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 2 yds to the MurrS 36Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
97.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Deshun Britten for 5 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-5
97.9%
MURRAY ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 36Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+11
97.8%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 11 yds to the MurrS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
97.7%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 7 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+3
97.6%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.5%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-5
97.4%
MURRAY ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+7
97.4%
Preston Rice pass complete to Deshun Britten for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+12
97.2%
Preston Rice pass complete to Deshun Britten for 12 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
97.1%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-11
97.0%
Preston Rice pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for 11 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1897% → 97%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
97.1%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+1
97.0%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
96.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
96.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds, fair catch by LaMartez Brooks at the MurrS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3TD
17 plays · 65 yds · 7:193% → 7%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.8%
Rodney Castille run for 3 yds to the MurrS 38Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
96.6%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+16
96.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Malik Honeycutt for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
96.4%
MURRAY ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 49Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+23
96.4%
Preston Rice pass complete to Deshun Britten for 23 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
96.0%
Rodney Castille run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
95.9%
LaMartez Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-5
95.8%
MURRAY ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+12
95.7%
Preston Rice run for 12 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
95.4%
Rodney Castille run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+7
95.2%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 7 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-5
95.1%
MURRAY ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+5
95.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+7
95.0%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 7 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.7%
Rodney Castille run for 2 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Preston Rice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Baum KICK)Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
93.0%
MURRAY ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4994% → 93%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
93.9%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 8
50
0
93.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 8
50
0
93.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 5INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:467% → 7%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
93.3%
MURRAY ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 15Similar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+5
93.3%
Preston Rice run for 5 yds to the MurrS 20Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.0%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
93.1%
Preston Rice pass intercepted Ahmad Gardner return for no gain to the MurrS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:0794% → 94%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
93.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds to the MurrS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
93.5%
Jerome Ford run for 11 yds to the MurrS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
93.3%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the MurrS 3Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
93.1%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the MurrS 2Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Noah Davis for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 7INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:147% → 7%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
93.4%
Preston Rice sacked by Joel Dublanko and Darrian Beavers for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 32Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-2
93.5%
Preston Rice pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for 2 yds to the MurrS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0195% → 93%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
94.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 1 yd to the MurrS 39Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+16
94.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 16 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
94.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 28Similar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+5
94.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the MurrS 23Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
94.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the MurrS 23Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+4
93.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
93.1%
Cole Smith 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9MISSED FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:238% → 12%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
91.8%
Damonta Witherspoon run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 18Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+32
91.5%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for 17 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
50
+1
90.1%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
89.8%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
89.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Damonta Witherspoon for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
89.6%
Preston Rice run for 1 yd to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
88.2%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for 5 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
87.4%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 6 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
87.3%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
87.3%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 9 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
87.2%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.6%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
86.7%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.1%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
87.9%
Aaron Baum 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
90.0%
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3690% → 93%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.5%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
89.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
89.1%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
88.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 16 yds to the MurrS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
89.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Scotty Humpich for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+1
88.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 13
50
+5
87.3%
MURRAY ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MurrS 45Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+27
88.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 27 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
89.0%
Ford, Jerome rush for 3 yards to the MURRAYST15, PENALTY MURRAYST 12 men on the field 5 yards to the MURRAYST13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 5
OPP 13
0
88.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
93.2%
Jerome Ford run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:438% → 8%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
91.7%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-1
91.6%
Damonta Witherspoon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 18Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
91.8%
Rice, Preston rush for 6 yards to the MURRAYST24, PENALTY MURRAYST holding off-setting, PENALTY CINCINNATI Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
91.6%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+1
91.9%
Louis Halton punt for 38 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:0293% → 97%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
93.3%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
93.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 12 yds to the MurrS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
93.2%
Evan Prater sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 5 yards to the MurrS 45Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+20
92.7%
Jerome Ford run for 20 yds to the MurrS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
93.2%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the MurrS 22Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+17
93.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 17 yds to the MurrS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+17
93.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 17 yds to the MurrS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
93.7%
Charles McClelland run for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 8Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.8%
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:414% → 4%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.8%
Rodney Castille run for 7 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
95.4%
LaMartez Brooks run for 1 yd to the MurrS 33Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
95.7%
Rodney Castille run for 3 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
95.6%
Preston Rice run for 3 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
95.6%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the MurrS 40Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
95.8%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
95.9%
MURRAY ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 35Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+3
96.2%
Louis Halton punt for 40 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:5797% → 97%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
97.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+38
97.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 38 yds to the MurrS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
97.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 8 yds to the MurrS 36Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+12
97.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 12 yds to the MurrS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
97.4%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the MurrS 22 Jerome Ford fumbled, recovered by MurrSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:263% → 4%
Q4 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
97.5%
Preston Rice run for 21 yds to the MurrS 24Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CincySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for 2 yds to the MurrS 27Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.2%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 5 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Louis Halton punt for 31 yds, downed at the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:0499% → 100%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 11 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+48
99.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 48 yds to the MurrS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
99.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 9Similar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.4%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the MurrS 3Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Rodney Castille run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 24Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the MurrS 27Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 26Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Louis Halton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Evan Prater run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by LaMartez Brooks at the MurrS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
100.0%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for 14 yds to the MurrS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
100.0%
Rodney Castille run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 26Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-3
100.0%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 7 yds to the MurrS 33 MURRAY ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MurrS 23Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the MurrS 26Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Louis Halton punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Ethan Wright run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Ethan Wright run for no gain to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 38 yds , LaMartez Brooks returns for 4 yds to the MurrS 18 LaMartez Brooks fumbled, recovered by CincySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
100.0%
Evan Prater pass complete to Payten Singletary for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Cortezz Jones run for 4 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
100.0%
Cortezz Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:05
Jerome Ford run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q3 4:58
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q4 14:13
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com