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MORG

Morgan State 20 at Tulane 69

TULN
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Legion Field
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreMORG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-0.2TULN 99.1%Neil Boudreau punt for no gain, puntout-of-bounds at the MorgS 25AWAY 7 - HOME 17 · Q1 4:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:34 · Neil Boudreau punt for no gain, punt out-of-bounds at the MorgS 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Play 31Pregame prior+46.9Home team on offense+2.3Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:00: Noah Seiden kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TULN win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:45: Neil Boudreau punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MorgS 43 , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 21 yds to the MorgS 43 — MORG win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:25: Noah Seiden kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TULN win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:05: Noah Seiden kickoff for 60 yds — TULN win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:36: Justin Ibieta pass intercepted, touchback. Jaeveyon Morton return for no gain — TULN win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MORG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:57TULN 4th & 7 at MORG 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49MORG 4th & 15 at MORG 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:34TULN 4th & 13 at MORG 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 15:00MORG 4th & 13 at MORG 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:45MORG 4th & 11 at MORG 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1PUNT TD
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:08100% → 99%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
99.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 4 yds to the MorgS 47Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
99.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 6 yds to the MorgS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.5%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Phat WattsSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the MorgS 38Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+8
99.5%
Michael Pratt run for 8 yds to the MorgS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 30 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 3POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Jabriel Johnson run for no gain to the MorgS 25Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.4%
Wheatley, Teriu pass incomplete to Thomas, Marcus, PENALTY TULANE pass interference (Monroe, Jaylon) 15 yards to the MSU40, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
99.4%
Daymond Hamler run for a loss of 2 yards to the MorgS 38Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+4
99.4%
Jairus Grissom run for 4 yds to the MorgS 42Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-7
99.4%
Jairus Grissom sacked by Noah Seiden for a loss of 7 yards to the MorgS 35Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Neil Boudreau punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 0 yds · 3:1399% → 99%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 8 yds to the MorgS 47Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
99.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 1 yd to the MorgS 46Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+14
99.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 14 yds to the MorgS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.3%
Devin Brumfield run for 7 yds to the MorgS 25Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
99.3%
Devin Brumfield run for 5 yds to the MorgS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.3%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the MorgS 18Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-5
99.3%
TULANE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MorgS 23Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Jha'Quan Jackson, broken up by Lawrence RichardsonSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Dorian Williams, broken up by Jaeveyon MortonSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
99.1%
Merek Glover 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 6TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Jabriel Johnson run for 1 yd to the MorgS 26Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Jairus Grissom pass incomplete to Wesley WolfolkSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.3%
Jairus Grissom run for a loss of 1 yard to the MorgS 25Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Neil Boudreau punt for no gain, punt out-of-bounds at the MorgS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 8POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Jabriel Johnson run for 2 yds to the MorgS 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.5%
Wesley Wolfolk run for a loss of 5 yards to the MorgS 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Jairus Grissom pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+15
99.5%
Neil Boudreau punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 48 , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 15 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 15 yds to the MorgS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.0%
Ygenio Booker run for 4 yds to the MorgS 6Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
T. Spears run for 6 yds for a TD, (M. Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 11PUNT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.2%
Neil Boudreau pass complete to Daymond Hamler for 14 yds to the MorgS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-12
99.2%
Neil Boudreau pass intercepted Derrion Rakestraw return for 12 yds to the MorgS 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12TD
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:0399% → 99%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Dorian Williams for 7 yds to the MorgS 35Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
99.3%
Cameron Carroll run for 5 yds to the MorgS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
99.3%
Cameron Carroll run for 8 yds to the MorgS 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+11
99.2%
Pratt, Michael pass incomplete to Williams, Doria, PENALTY MSU roughing passer (Dendoe, Merinio) 11 yards to the MSU11, 1ST DOWN TULANE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 4 yds to the MorgS 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+6
99.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 6 yds to the MorgS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
M. Pratt run for 1 yd for a TD, (M. Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 14TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.1%
Daymond Hamler run for 1 yd to the MorgS 25Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+19
99.1%
Neil Boudreau pass complete to Wesley Wolfolk for 5 yds to the MorgS 30 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, roughing passer (Marvin Moody) to the MorgS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-49
99.1%
N. Boudreau pass intercepted for a TD,K. Henry return for 49 yds for a TD, (M. Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.1%
Daymond Hamler run for 2 yds to the MorgS 22Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
99.1%
Neil Boudreau run for 2 yds to the MorgS 24Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
99.1%
Neil Boudreau sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MorgS 19 Neil Boudreau fumbled, recovered by MorgS , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+21
98.7%
Neil Boudreau punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MorgS 43 , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 21 yds to the MorgS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
98.5%
M. Pratt pass,to T. James for 43 yds for a TD, (M. Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19INT
3 plays · 66 yds · 1:2799% → 99%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.1%
Justin Ibieta pass complete to Reggie Brown for 8 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+44
99.1%
Justin Ibieta pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 44 yds to the TULANE 24 for a 1ST down MORGAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Marcus Thomas) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
99.0%
J. Ibieta run for 23 yds for a TD, (M. Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.4%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd to the Tulan 34Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
99.4%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Justin Ibieta pass intercepted Lawrence Richardson return for no gain to the Tulan 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 22TD
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.2%
Jabriel Johnson run for 7 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
99.1%
Jabriel Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+8
99.1%
Neil Boudreau pass complete to Romello Kimbrough for 8 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-9
99.1%
Neil Boudreau sacked by Darius Hodges for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulan 30Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 19
OPP 30
+3
99.2%
Jabriel Johnson run for 3 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+14
99.2%
Neil Boudreau run for 1 yd to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (Connor Prouet) to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.1%
Neil Boudreau pass incomplete to Wesley WolfolkSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.0%
N. Boudreau pass,to W. Wolfolk for 13 yds for a TD, (K. Akubuo-Onwuemeka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT TD
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.4%
Ibieta, Justin pass incomplete to Watts, Phat (Benjamin, Ahmar), PENALTY MSU pass interference (Benjamin, Ahmar) 15 yards to the TULANE40, 1ST DOWN TULANE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Justin Ibieta pass incomplete to Keitha Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+23
99.4%
Justin Ibieta pass complete to Dorian Williams for 23 yds to the MorgS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
99.4%
Justin Ibieta run for 24 yds to the MorgS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.4%
Justin Ibieta pass complete to Keitha Jones Jr. for 6 yds to the MorgS 7Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
J. Ibieta pass,to J. Jackson for 7 yds for a TD, (M. Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:5599% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
99.3%
Justin Ibieta run for 12 yds to the Tulan 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.3%
Devin Brumfield run for 11 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.3%
Devin Brumfield run for 8 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+19
99.3%
Devin Brumfield run for 19 yds to the MorgS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Justin Ibieta pass incomplete to Keitha Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.3%
Justin Ibieta pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 4 yds to the MorgS 38Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+11
99.3%
Justin Ibieta pass complete to Keitha Jones Jr. for 11 yds to the MorgS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.3%
J. Ibieta pass,to P. Watts for 27 yds for a TD, (M. Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Justin Ibieta pass intercepted, touchback. Jaeveyon Morton return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:25
Noah Seiden kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.6
TD · Q3 7:36
Justin Ibieta pass intercepted, touchback. Jaeveyon Morton return for no gain
+0.6
TD · Q2 12:45
Neil Boudreau punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MorgS 43 , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 21 yds to the MorgS 43
-0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com