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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:25 · Mariano Valenti run for no gain to the Akron 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:43: Tony Grimes Jr. 17 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Cory Smigel Kick) — AKR win probability +9.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:26: Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 70 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +6.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:12: Manny Walker 3 Yd Interception Return (Rory Bell Kick) — TEM win probability +9.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:34: J. Lynch pass,to R. Jones for 27 yds for a TD, (R. Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +12.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:24: J. Lynch run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +10.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 14:53AKR 4th & 5 at TEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.8%42% to convertField goal34.7%−0.138% to makePunt34.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:19TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.8%average punt
- Q1 10:19TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 1 at TEM 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.6%71% to convertField goal45.4%−1.254% to makePunt44.8%−1.8average punt
- Q2 11:46AKR 4th & 3 at TEM 22, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snapGo for it48.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call48.6%−0.372% to makePunt45.0%−3.9average punt
- Q2 8:34TEM 4th & 6 at AKR 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.339% to convertField goalTheir call46.7%70% to makePunt41.4%−5.4average punt
- Q2 8:34TEM 4th & 6 at AKR 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.339% to convertField goalTheir call46.7%70% to makePunt41.4%−5.4average punt
- Q2 5:07AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 13, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it34.3%−2.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q2 0:37TEM 4th & 5 at AKR 9, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snapGo for it63.2%−1.036% to convertField goalTheir call64.2%89% to makePunt57.7%−6.4average punt
- Q3 14:52TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 39, up 7Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snapGo for it70.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%−0.8average punt
- Q3 12:37AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snapGo for it29.7%−1.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.6%average punt
- Q3 6:49AKR 4th & 18 at TEM 31, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 17.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.1%−1.613% to convertField goal17.6%54% to makePunt16.7%−0.9average punt
- Q4 11:56AKR 4th & 7 at TEM 33, down 21Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−<0.137% to convertField goal3.1%49% to makePunt2.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 6:06TEM 4th & 1 at AKR 1, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%59% to convertField goal98.1%−0.494% to makePunt97.0%−1.5average punt
- Q4 1:06TEM 4th & 6 at AKR 47, up 21Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:56AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 11, down 21Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:19AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.0%97% to makeGo for two38.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:43AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.9%97% to makeGo for two48.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:26TEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.8%97% to makeGo for two55.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:12TEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.9%97% to makeGo for two61.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:34TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.8%97% to makeGo for two77.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:24TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:06TEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:47AKR Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1TD13 plays · 77 yds · 4:3434% → 38%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
33.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 3 yds to the Temp 40Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-7
33.7%
Kato Nelson sacked by William Kwenkeu for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+11
33.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 11 yds to the Temp 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
33.7%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 14 yds to the Temp 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT14 plays · 20 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 10:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
37.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for 2 yds to the Temp 29 TEMPLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Randle Jones) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+15
37.3%
Lynch, Justin pass incomplete to Blue, Jadan, PENALTY AKR holding 15 yards to the TEM44, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
36.8%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for a loss of 10 yards to the Temp 34Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+6
37.1%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the Temp 45 TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Randle Jones) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+15
37.3%
Lynch, Justin pass incomplete to Blue, Jadan, PENALTY AKR holding 15 yards to the TEM44, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
36.8%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for a loss of 10 yards to the Temp 34Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+6
37.1%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the Temp 45 TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Randle Jones) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3TD15 plays · 80 yds · 4:2640% → 50%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
40.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 16 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4TD2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
42.8%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 70 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5FG14 plays · 53 yds · 5:4043% → 49%
Q1 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
43.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jonzell Norrils for 1 yd to the Akron 28Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+32
42.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 32 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
44.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 2 yds to the Temp 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6MISSED FG13 plays · 32 yds · 3:0352% → 48%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
47.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jordan Smith for 17 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
47.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 5 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+2
47.6%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 2 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+2
47.6%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 2 yds to the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7FUMBLE TD10 plays · 15 yds · 3:1052% → 47%
Q2 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
51.4%
Nelson, Kato pass incomplete to Mumpfield, Kona, PENALTY TEM pass interference 15 yards to the AKR39, 1ST DOWN AKR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+5
51.8%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Randle Jones) to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
53.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Michael Mathison, broken up by M.J. GriffinSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
53.7%
Norrils, Jonzel rush for loss of 3 yards to the AKR48 (Tyler, Amir), PENALTY AKR holding 10 yards to the AKR41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+38
47.3%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard Kato Nelson fumbled, forced by Layton Jordan, recovered by Temp William Kwenkeu , return for 38 yds, (Rory Bell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8INT TD4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0547% → 38%
AKRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-2
37.7%
DJ Irons run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 21 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-8
36.5%
DJ Irons sacked by William Kwenkeu for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 13Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 18
OWN 13
0
36.0%
Kyle Romenick punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 32 , Jadan Blue returns for no gain to the Temp 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10FG13 plays · 59 yds · 2:4663% → 72%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
37.0%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for 9 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-10
35.9%
Lynch, Justin rush for no gain to the TEM41 (Kelly-Powell, J), PENALTY TEM holding 10 yards to the TEM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 3
50
+11
35.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Darius Pittman for 11 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
35.5%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 25 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
TEMDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
29.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 9 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+6
30.4%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Edward Saydee for 6 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+14
29.7%
Adam Barry punt for 50 yds , Michael Mathison returns for 14 yds to the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
TEMDrive 15TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:1371% → 85%
AKRDrive 16DOWNS12 plays · 52 yds · 2:4519% → 17%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
18.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 13 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
20.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
21.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 5 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+11
21.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 11 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
19.3%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield, broken up by Cameron RuizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD11 plays · 77 yds · 5:5186% → 97%
Q3 6:15
2ND & 2
OWN 31
-1
13.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Tayvon Ruley for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 30Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+6
14.5%
Justin Lynch pass complete to James Della Pesca for 6 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
13.0%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 22 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 42 yds · 3:284% → 3%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
3.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 10 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+11
4.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
4.1%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Anthony Williams Jr., broken up by Jordan MageeSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
4.1%
DJ Irons run for 2 yds to the Temp 34 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
2.5%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield, broken up by Ty MasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD13 plays · 67 yds · 5:4398% → 100%
AKRDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:190% → 1%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 13 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+29
0.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 14 yds to the AKRON 44 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Randle Jones) to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
0.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 10 yds to the Temp 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
0.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to for 16 yds to the Temp 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 3 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
0.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 1 yd to the Akron 7Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 11
+35
0.3%
Ethan Slike punt for 54 yds , Amad Anderson Jr. returns for 35 yds to the Akron 46 AKRON Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:34
J. Lynch pass,to R. Jones for 27 yds for a TD, (R. Bell KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 0:24
J. Lynch run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Bell KICK)
-10
TD · Q1 2:43
Tony Grimes Jr. 17 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Cory Smigel Kick)
+9.7