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ACU

Abilene Christian 9 at SMU 56

SMU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD—SMU 99.9%Stone Earle pass complete to KobeClark for 11 yds for a TD Timeout ABILCHRISTIAN, clock 04:38 (Two-PointConversion failed )AWAY 9 - HOME 42 · Q3 4:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:38 · Stone Earle pass complete to Kobe Clark for 11 yds for a TD Timeout ABIL CHRISTIAN, clock 04:38 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+22.9Home team on offense+33.9Score differential+26.1Blowout margin+14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.4Garbage-time factor+9.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 21 yds for a TD — ACU win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:41: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 30 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:01: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 27 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 3:06: Blair Zepeda 47 yd FG GOOD — ACU win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:29: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 30 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ACU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:23ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16ACU 4th & 8 at SMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:48SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17ACU 4th & 4 at ACU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:23SMU 4th & 10 at ACU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:46ACU 4th & 2 at ACU 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:28ACU 4th & 15 at ACU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:01SMU 4th & 6 at ACU 27, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:01SMU 4th & 6 at ACU 27, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:06ACU 4th & 9 at SMU 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:33SMU 4th & 1 at ACU 8, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:38ACU 4th & 11 at SMU 11, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:53ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 28, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:48SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 37, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:14SMU 4th & 7 at ACU 32, up 47
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:09ACU 4th & 12 at SMU 17, down 50
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    -0.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:12SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 49, up 50
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ACU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 11:19SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:41SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:01SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:29SMU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:33SMU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:38ACU Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:46SMU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:44SMU Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:333% → 4%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
96.8%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 7 yds to the AblCh 22Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
96.8%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 2 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-5
96.8%
PENALTY ACU False Start (Caldwell,Noah) 5 yards from ACU24 to ACU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+1
96.8%
Stone Earle run for 1 yd to the AblCh 20Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Logan Burke punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:0497% → 97%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
96.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+17
96.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 17 yds to the AblCh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
96.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 11:194% → 5%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.4%
Stone Earle pass complete to Kobe Clark for 12 yds to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
96.4%
Stone Earle pass complete to Kobe Clark for 8 yds to the AblCh 45Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
96.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
96.4%
Tyrese White run for 1 yd to the AblCh 46Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
96.4%
Tyrese White run for 1 yd to the AblCh 46Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
96.2%
Stafford,Rece rush for 1 yard loss to the ACU45 (Hailey,Shaine) PENALTY SMU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ACU46 to SMU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.1%
Anthony Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
96.1%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
96.1%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Darius LewisSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
96.0%
Logan Burke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 11Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
94.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 21 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2896% → 96%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
96.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 5 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
96.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 6 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
96.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
95.7%
Matt Fraanje punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 5PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:314% → 4%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
95.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Quae Walton for 3 yds to the AblCh 26Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
95.8%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Darius LewisSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+31
95.7%
Logan Burke punt blocked by Trevor Denbow blocked by Trevor DenbowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:5496% → 96%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+47
95.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 47 yds to the AblCh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.8%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the AblCh 15Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
95.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
95.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
95.6%
Blake Mazza 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:374% → 5%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
95.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Denver Holman for 11 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.7%
Jermiah Dobbins run for no gain to the AblCh 31Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
95.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Darius Lewis for 9 yds to the AblCh 40Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
95.6%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 1 yd to the AblCh 39Similar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Logan Burke punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:5195% → 96%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
95.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
95.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 10 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
95.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 10 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
95.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 9 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
95.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the AblCh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
95.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the AblCh 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+11
95.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews for 11 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
95.4%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
95.4%
Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete to Daniels, Jr.,Roderick PENALTY ACU Offside (Obadyei,Osaretin) 5 yards from ACU24 to ACU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
95.4%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the AblCh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
95.4%
Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete to Gray,Danny QB hurried by Adams,Trey PENALTY ACU Roughing The Passer (Adams,Trey) 7 yards from ACU14 to ACU07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
95.4%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the AblCh 8Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 10:554% → 4%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.6%
Tyrese White run for 2 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
95.6%
Stone Earle sacked by Richard Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the AblCh 20Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Logan Burke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
95.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4796% → 98%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
96.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 22 yds to the AblCh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
96.1%
run for 11 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 21
OWN 47
+13
96.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 13 yds to the AblCh 40Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+10
96.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tommy McIntyre for 10 yds to the AblCh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 30 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 30 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:203% → 3%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
97.5%
Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the AblCh 19Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
97.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Alex Spadone for 6 yds to the AblCh 25Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Stone Earle pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:1698% → 99%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
98.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
98.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for no gain to the AblCh 27Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
98.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+27
99.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 27 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+27
99.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 27 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:501% → 4%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+59
99.3%
Stone Earle pass complete to Remington Lutz for 59 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.2%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
99.2%
Stone Earle pass complete to Darius Lewis for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
99.2%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
96.0%
Blair Zepeda 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3798% → 100%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.4%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.3%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+14
98.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 14 yds to the AblCh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
98.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 4 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
98.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 8 yds to the AblCh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 30 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 30 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:220% → 0%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
99.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to Kobe Clark for 13 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
99.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Kobe Clark for 8 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Alex SpadoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:2799% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
99.4%
Danny Gray run for 27 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the AblCh 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Tommy McIntyreSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete to Matthews,Nolan broken up by Stapp,Ryan, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ACU Pass Interference (Stapp,Ryan) 11 yard from ACU39 to ACU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the AblCh 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+4
99.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the AblCh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:550% → 0%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Tyrese White run for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
99.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Alex Spadone for 13 yds to the AblCh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.7%
Tyrese White run for 5 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Jordan Brooks-WessSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
99.7%
Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Alex SpadoneSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.7%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 6 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+8
99.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to Denver Holman for 8 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.6%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+18
99.7%
Stone Earle run for 18 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.6%
Tyrese White run for 3 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Remington LutzSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Kobe Clark for 11 yds for a TD Timeout ABIL CHRISTIAN, clock 04:38 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.8%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 1 yd to the AblCh 46Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+15
99.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 15 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews for 31 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.9%
Stone Earle sacked by Gary Wiley for a loss of 6 yards to the AblCh 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Jermiah DobbinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
PENALTY ACU Delay Of Game (Burke,Logan) 5 yards from ACU33 to ACU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Logan Burke punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Dylan GoffneySimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.9%
Tre Siggers run for 11 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Tre SiggersSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
Derek Green pass complete to Tre Siggers for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Matt Fraanje punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 2 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Stone Earle pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
100.0%
Derek Green run for 1 yd to the AblCh 34Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
100.0%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 2 yds to the AblCh 32Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
100.0%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Beau BarkerSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
100.0%
Blake Mazza 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Davion Johnson for 16 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Noah CaldwellSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+37
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Kobe Clark for 37 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
100.0%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 2 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Davion JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Denver HolmanSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 12
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Denver HolmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
100.0%
Blake Bedwell run for 8 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Derek Green pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 3 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
PENALTY ACU Offside (Obadyei,Osaretin) 5 yards from SMU28 to SMU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Blake Bedwell run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
100.0%
Blake Bedwell run for 4 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Blake Bedwell run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
100.0%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Matt Fraanje punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 26INT
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Dax NeeceSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
100.0%
Quae Walton run for 5 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+20
100.0%
Peyton Mansell run for 20 yds to the AblCh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
100.0%
Peyton Mansell run for 13 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
100.0%
Tyrese White run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
100.0%
Mansell,Peyton pass incomplete broken up by DeArman,Ty PENALTY SMU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SMU24 to SMU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 19
0
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 3:06
Blair Zepeda 47 yd FG GOOD
-3.2
TD · Q2 7:41
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 30 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q1 0:00
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 21 yds for a TD
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com