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NICH

Nicholls 17 at Memphis 42

MEM
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:53 · Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior+31.7Home team on offense+5.0Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.6Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:29: Brandon Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:19: Joe Doyle 33 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:15: Marquavius Weaver 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MEM win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:54: Lindsey Scott Jr. 5 Yd Run (Gavin Lasseigne Kick) — NICH win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:41: Joe Doyle 25 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 6:11MEM 4th & 8 at NICH 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:23NICH 4th & 8 at NICH 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:01NICH 4th & 2 at MEM 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:46NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:53MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.9%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:19MEM 4th & 7 at NICH 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:32NICH 4th & 2 at NICH 36, down 13
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44NICH 4th & 7 at NICH 28, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:13MEM 4th & 6 at NICH 6, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:46MEM 4th & 4 at NICH 20, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:41MEM 4th & 7 at NICH 7, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:13NICH 4th & 6 at NICH 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:20NICH 4th & 6 at MEM 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:06MEM 4th & 2 at NICH 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:40NICH 4th & 8 at NICH 47, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:13NICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:38MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:29MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:15MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:54NICH Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:53MEM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NICHDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:318% → 11%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.0%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 6 yds to the NicSt 31Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.9%
Julien Gums run for 5 yds to the NicSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.8%
Lindsey Scott Jr. run for no gain to the NicSt 36Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
91.7%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass complete to K.J. Franklin for 10 yds to the NicSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
91.4%
Julien Gums run for 10 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
91.2%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 21 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
91.0%
Julien Gums run for 6 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
90.7%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
90.7%
Julien Gums run for 5 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
90.4%
Julien Gums run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
89.5%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass complete to K.J. Franklin for 10 yds for a TD, (Gavin Lasseigne KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 2:4490% → 89%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for no gain to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
89.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
89.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 5
50
+18
89.5%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the MEMPHIS 47 for a 1ST down NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Targeting Unnecessary Roughness on K.Johnson enforced (15 Yards) to the NicSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
89.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 37Similar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+15
89.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds to the NicSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
89.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 12 yds to the NicSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
89.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the NicSt 8Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the NicSt 8Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
89.1%
Joe Doyle 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3011% → 11%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.9%
Julien Gums run for 2 yds to the NicSt 27Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
88.7%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
88.8%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
88.9%
Craig Walker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:3789% → 89%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
88.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
88.4%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Offsides (Ty'Ree Evans) to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+11
88.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 11 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
88.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
88.4%
Marquavius Weaver run for 6 yds to the NicSt 45Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
88.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the NicSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
88.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
88.1%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
87.9%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+15
87.6%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Offsides (Hayden Shaheen) to the NicSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
88.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the NicSt 13Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
87.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
88.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 13 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:2312% → 13%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.5%
Lindsey Scott Jr. run for 1 yd to the NicSt 26Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
88.3%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 19 yds to the NicSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
87.6%
John Carrington III run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
50
0
87.3%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 5
50
+3
87.3%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass complete to John Carrington III for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
87.5%
Craig Walker punt for 32 yds , returns for no gain to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:0087% → 90%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
87.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 18 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
87.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the NicSt 43Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+9
87.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 9 yds to the NicSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
88.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 24 yds to the NicSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2611% → 10%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
89.5%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the NicSt 38Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
89.1%
Julien Gums run for 2 yds to the NicSt 40Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
89.1%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 35Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
89.8%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
89.9%
Craig Walker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:1890% → 92%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
89.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.3%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
89.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
89.8%
#14 S.Henigan pass to the left incomplete intended for #13 J.Ivory broken up by #21 M.Woodery at the NIC47, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY NIC Holding on #21 M.Woodery enforced 10 yards from the MEM40 to the MEM50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
50
+13
89.9%
Asa Martin run for 13 yds to the NicSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
89.9%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the NicSt 33Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
89.9%
#14 S.Henigan pass to the right incomplete intended for #24 C.Fleming thrown to the NIC3, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY NIC Pass Interference on #6 J.Jackson enforced 15 yards from the NIC33 to the NIC18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
89.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the NicSt 18Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
89.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the NicSt 17Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+2
89.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the NicSt 15Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
91.9%
Joe Doyle 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:319% → 9%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
91.4%
Lindsey Scott Jr. run for 8 yds to the NicSt 25Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
91.2%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the NicSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
91.2%
Lindsey Scott Jr. run for 6 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
91.0%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+2
91.2%
Julien Gums run for 2 yds to the NicSt 36Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
91.3%
Craig Walker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:0392% → 96%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
92.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 6 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-3
92.1%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+11
91.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
92.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 32 yds to the NicSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
92.5%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Offsides (Ty'Ree Evans) to the NicSt 27Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 5
OPP 27
-10
92.5%
#22 B.Thomas rush to the right for a gain of 24 yards to the NIC3 (#2 D.Betts Jr.), out of bounds, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MEM Holding on #51 J.Robinson enforced 10 yards from the NIC27 to the NIC37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+17
92.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 17 yds to the NicSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+19
92.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 19 yds to the NicSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
Marquavius Weaver 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:276% → 6%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.3%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass complete to K.J. Franklin for 3 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.2%
Lindsey Scott Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.3%
Craig Walker punt for 32 yds, downed at the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 1:1596% → 97%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
95.9%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
95.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+12
95.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 12 yds to the NicSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
95.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 25 yds to the NicSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
95.9%
Asa Martin run for 8 yds to the NicSt 10Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
96.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
96.4%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the NicSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
96.5%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the NicSt 6Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
97.0%
Joe Doyle 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:5597% → 99%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+37
97.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 37 yds to the NicSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
97.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
97.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
97.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the NicSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
97.4%
Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the NicSt 23Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
97.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 3 yds to the NicSt 20Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
97.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on I.Ellis declined; . ( Yards) to the NicSt 20Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
98.5%
Joe Doyle 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:402% → 6%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
98.3%
Logan Scott pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 22 yds to the NicSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
98.3%
Logan Scott pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 13 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
98.3%
John Carrington III run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
98.4%
Logan Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+19
98.4%
Logan Scott pass complete to Jaden Tyler for 19 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
98.2%
Logan Scott pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 5 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
98.3%
Logan Scott run for 3 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
98.5%
John Carrington III run for 3 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.4%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.4%
Lindsey Scott Jr. 5 Yd Run (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:4797% → 98%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.5%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
96.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+15
96.5%
#14 S.Henigan pass to the right incomplete intended for #13 J.Ivory thrown to the NIC40, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY NIC Pass Interference on #8 J.Monroe enforced 15 yards from the MEM37 to the NIC48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the NicSt 47Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+42
96.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 42 yds to the NicSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
96.8%
#22 B.Thomas rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the NIC2 (#94 J.Martin), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NIC5 to the NIC10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
96.8%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the NicSt 7Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
98.0%
Joe Doyle 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
98.0%
Logan Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
98.1%
Julien Gums run for 5 yds to the NicSt 17Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+21
98.1%
Logan Scott pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 21 yds to the NicSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.1%
Logan Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
98.2%
Logan Scott pass complete to K.J. Franklin for 4 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Logan Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Craig Walker punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0899% → 100%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.6%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
98.6%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
98.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 13 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.8%
#14 S.Henigan pass to the left complete for 4 yards to #13 J.Ivory caught at the MEM37 and advanced to the MEM43 (#34 T.Evans), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, NIC Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MEM39 to the MEM44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+34
98.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 34 yds to the NicSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 2 yds to the NicSt 20Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
98.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 9 yds to the NicSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 11 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 19FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Logan Scott pass complete to K.J. Franklin for 11 yds to the NicSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.9%
John Carrington III run for 7 yds to the NicSt 43Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Logan Scott pass complete to John Carrington III for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Logan Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
50
+12
99.9%
Logan Scott pass complete to Dontaze Costly for 12 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
#0 L.Scott pass to the left incomplete intended for #5 D.Dixon thrown to the MEM4, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on #24 G.Rubin enforced 15 yards from the MEM38 to the MEM23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
99.9%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Logan Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
Logan Scott run for 1 yd to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Logan Scott pass complete to Jordan Jackson for 8 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+35
99.6%
Gavin Lasseigne 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.7%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
99.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+13
99.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 13 yds to the NicSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+1
99.8%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the NicSt 36Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
99.8%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the NicSt 35Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+1
99.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the NicSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.7%
Jordan Jackson run for 2 yds to the NicSt 36Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
99.7%
Jordan Jackson run for 5 yds to the NicSt 41Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
99.7%
Kohen Granier pass complete to Arron Mckenney for 4 yds to the NicSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.8%
Kohen Granier run for 6 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Kohen Granier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-5
99.8%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 46Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+1
99.8%
Kohen Granier pass complete to Lee Negrotto for 1 yd to the NicSt 47Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Kohen Granier pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 9 yds to the NicSt 44Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+21
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 21 yds to the NicSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:54
Lindsey Scott Jr. 5 Yd Run (Gavin Lasseigne Kick)
-4
TD · Q2 2:15
Marquavius Weaver 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+2.9
TD · Q2 12:29
Brandon Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com