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M-OH

Miami (OH) 14 at Cincinnati 49

CIN
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:23 · Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+16.3Home team on offense+33.5Score differential+22.7Blowout margin+10.3Garbage-time factor+11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 14:15: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 81 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — M-OH win probability +0.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:01: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +0.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:45: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:03: Jerome Ford run for 21 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:53: Desmond Ridder run for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:37M-OH 4th & 10 at CIN 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:37M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:48M-OH 4th & 11 at CIN 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:12CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:49M-OH 4th & 10 at CIN 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:57M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 16, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:53CIN 4th & 1 at M-OH 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00M-OH 4th & 12 at CIN 41, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:07M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 48, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:59M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 8, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:00M-OH 4th & 7 at CIN 20, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:23CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 15, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51M-OH 4th & 3 at CIN 16, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:02M-OH 4th & 2 at CIN 40, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:15CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:01CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:45CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:03CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:53CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:46CIN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:20M-OH Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:30M-OH Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:23CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:4092% → 92%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
91.8%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+81
91.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 81 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:258% → 9%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
91.7%
Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+40
91.6%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 40 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
91.5%
Davion Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+2
91.4%
AJ Mayer run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
91.3%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
91.4%
Dom Dzioban punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 3:2691% → 92%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
91.4%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
91.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+6
91.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 6 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
91.2%
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+50
91.2%
Jerome Ford run for 50 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
91.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+17
91.2%
Ryan Montgomery run for 17 yds to the MiaOh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
91.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q1 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
92.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:008% → 8%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
91.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
91.7%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Davion Johnson for 2 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
91.8%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 7
OWN 24
-5
91.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
91.8%
Dom Dzioban punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:4592% → 94%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
92.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 9 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+9
92.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
92.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 12 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
92.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 6 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+11
92.2%
Jerome Ford run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
92.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+4
92.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 4 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
93.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:576% → 6%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 5
OWN 40
0
93.6%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
93.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
93.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 7
50
+9
93.9%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 9 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
93.9%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-3
94.1%
AJ Mayer sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
94.4%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
94.4%
Dom Dzioban punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2894% → 95%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
94.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-2
94.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
94.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
94.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:135% → 5%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
94.6%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 15 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.5%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
94.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+4
94.8%
AJ Mayer run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+5
94.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.5%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
94.6%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
94.9%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
95.0%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:3895% → 98%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
95.1%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Mike Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+47
95.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 47 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
95.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+9
95.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 9 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
96.0%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
98.0%
Jerome Ford run for 21 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:592% → 2%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
98.3%
Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
98.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
98.4%
Kevin Davis run for no gain to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
98.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the MiaOh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:5798% → 99%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
98.3%
Jerome Ford run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
98.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+13
98.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 13 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
98.5%
Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
98.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 4 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+25
98.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:481% → 1%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.0%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+18
99.1%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 18 yds Jack Sorenson fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Jack Sorenson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+2
99.1%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
0
99.1%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+1
99.2%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Davion Johnson for 1 yd to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
99.3%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:431% → 1%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+13
99.3%
AJ Mayer run for 13 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
99.3%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+2
99.4%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 18
OWN 43
0
99.4%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+5
99.4%
Davion Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.5%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
99.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
99.5%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+15
99.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cedric Boswell) to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.6%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Sterling Weatherford return for no gain to the MiaOh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.6%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.6%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 7
OWN 16
-8
99.6%
AJ Mayer sacked by Jabari Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 15
OWN 8
+44
99.7%
Dom Dzioban punt for 44 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 47 Ryan Montgomery fumbled, recovered by MiaOhSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.6%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
99.6%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 14 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.6%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 10 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.6%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.7%
Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 7
OPP 20
0
99.7%
AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
99.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-12
99.7%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+13
99.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 13 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
99.8%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+13
99.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 13 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.8%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
99.8%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+4
99.8%
AJ Mayer run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+2
99.8%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Davion Johnson for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.8%
Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+5
99.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+5
99.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+8
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 8 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 10 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ethan Wright for 10 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:110% → 0%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
David Afari run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
David Afari run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
100.0%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Devon Dorsey for 8 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
100.0%
David Afari run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 12
50
+5
100.0%
David Afari run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
100.0%
David Afari run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
100.0%
David Afari run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
100.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
100.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+15
100.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Taj Ward) to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
100.0%
David Afari run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+19
100.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 19 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
100.0%
Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-32
100.0%
Evan Prater pass intercepted for a TD John Saunders Jr. return for 32 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
100.0%
Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
100.0%
Evan Prater run for 16 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
100.0%
Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the CINCINNATI 46 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
100.0%
Charles McClelland run for 22 yds to the MiaOh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
100.0%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
100.0%
Evan Prater run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:03
Jerome Ford run for 21 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+2
TD · Q1 2:45
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 23 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q1 8:01
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com