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BOIS

Boise State 31 at UCF 36

UCF
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2021 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:24 · Joel Velazquez punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for no gain to the UCF 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+7.1Pregame prior+2.4Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:50: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:37: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +14.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 0:56: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 21 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +18.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:02: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +31.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:16: Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UCF win probability +30.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:01BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:46UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:07UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:21BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:35BOIS 4th & 1 at UCF 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−2.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−9.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:06BOIS 4th & 3 at UCF 14, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%−0.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−8.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:27BOIS 4th & 17 at BOIS 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−5.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:39BOIS 4th & 17 at BOIS 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−4.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:01UCF 4th & 11 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:20BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−2.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 23, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 3.4 ptsWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:30UCF 4th & 1 at BOIS 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−4.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:24BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 41, down 6
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:10UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:58BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:00BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:50BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:23UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06UCF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:37UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:56UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:02BOIS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−2.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:16UCF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.8%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5336% → 36%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
63.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
63.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
63.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
63.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+12
63.9%
Joel Velazquez punt for 43 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 12 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2INT TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5264% → 63%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
63.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
64.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
64.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Amari Johnson for 5 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
64.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 8 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
64.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
64.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+23
64.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 23 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-100
62.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted for a TD Tyric LeBeauf return for 100 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 1:5962% → 60%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
61.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-10
61.6%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus Tatum) to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+13
61.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 13 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+5
61.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jackson Cravens) to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
60.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
60.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 9
OWN 30
-5
60.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jarrad Baker) to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
60.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BoiSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:3040% → 46%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
60.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for no gain to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
60.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+12
60.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 12 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
59.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 11 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
58.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 18 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
58.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+11
58.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 11 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
57.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+22
57.7%
Andrew Van Buren run for 22 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.7%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4355% → 53%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
54.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Amari Johnson for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
54.0%
UCF Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Marcus Tatum) to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
53.1%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Scott Matlock for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 23 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, forced by Scott Matlock, recovered by UCF Isaiah Bowser , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
52.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, downed at the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:1348% → 65%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
52.1%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+18
51.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 18 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
50.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 6 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
50.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Tyneil HopperSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
50.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 8 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
50.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 9 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-1
49.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+7
49.5%
Khalil Shakir run for 7 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
48.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the UCF 20 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 16
OPP 30
+1
47.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+10
47.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 10 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
35.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2239% → 49%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
38.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 30 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
40.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+22
39.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 22 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
48.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Alec Holler for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4154% → 56%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
45.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 16 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
45.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
44.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
44.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+58
44.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCF 24 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Titus Mokiao-Atimalala) to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2644% → 44%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
44.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
44.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
43.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:2959% → 66%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
41.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 13 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
41.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+3
40.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+10
40.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 10 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
40.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
38.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-1
39.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+8
39.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
34.0%
Jonah Dalmas 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:0337% → 36%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
37.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
38.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 11 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
38.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
37.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-5
36.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Lokahi Pauole) to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+12
36.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 12 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4368% → 72%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
31.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
30.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
28.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
28.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 61 yds, downed at the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:1333% → 45%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
32.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
32.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+31
31.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 31 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
34.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 28 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
34.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
34.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
44.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:1841% → 57%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
41.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
40.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+12
40.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 12 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+47
40.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 47 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
43.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
42.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
57.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4647% → 46%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
52.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BoiStSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-3
53.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+2
54.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
53.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Titus Mokiao-Atimalala at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2953% → 50%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
53.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
56.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+12
55.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
56.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
56.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-7
56.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 11
50
0
50.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3150% → 48%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
49.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
49.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
51.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 8
OWN 13
-3
52.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 62 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 22 Titus Mokiao-Atimalala fumbled, recovered by UCF Titus Mokiao-AtimalalaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:1452% → 76%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
51.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
52.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
51.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+12
51.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
55.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+26
51.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 26 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
57.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+2
57.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
57.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
75.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 21 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20SF
5 plays · -25 yds · 0:5531% → 26%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.7%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
70.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
74.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by BoiStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1080% → 83%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
80.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
80.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
81.2%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus Tatum) to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+5
80.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 15
50
+5
81.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 5 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+9
81.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
82.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jake HescockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5627% → 25%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
72.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
72.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
72.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
74.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for no gain to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:3784% → 85%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
83.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
84.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
83.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-27
84.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Tyric LeBeauf return for 27 yds to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:2730% → 62%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
69.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 24 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3950% → 88%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
54.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
51.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
51.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 22 yds to the BOISEST 41 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Kekaula Kaniho) to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
57.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-1
57.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+13
55.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 13 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
57.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
57.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
87.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
87.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:5825% → 30%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
75.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 23 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
71.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Curran) to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
76.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+16
76.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
70.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 6 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
69.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted Dyllon Lester return for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:5290% → 95%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
90.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
92.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+6
93.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Alec Holler for 6 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
93.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
93.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
94.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
95.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0510% → 11%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
90.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 13 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:02
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-31.8
TD · Q4 4:16
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+30.2
TD · Q3 0:56
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 21 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
+18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com