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TTU

Texas Tech 24 at Baylor 27

BAY
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · Donovan Smith pass complete to McLane Mannix for 19 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense+17.2Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score differential−0.5Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:01: Abram Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +4.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:08: Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) — TTU win probability +7.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:37: Donovan Smith pass complete to McLane Mannix for 38 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) — TTU win probability +18.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:00: Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 9 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +12.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:40: Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 75 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) — TTU win probability +20.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 11 of 12TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:50BAY 4th & 10 at TTU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:06TTU 4th & 14 at BAY 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:53BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:34TTU 4th & 10 at BAY 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:04BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:31BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:31BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:06TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:35BAY 4th & 9 at TTU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:58TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:50BAY 4th & 1 at TTU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−2.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−10.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:31BAY 4th & 9 at TTU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−8.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:57BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.3%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:43BAY 4th & 1 at TTU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−9.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−7.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:18BAY 4th & 2 at TTU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−22.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:18BAY 4th & 2 at TTU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−22.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:04TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:42BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:01BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:08TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:37TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:00BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:40TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0483% → 83%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
82.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Abram Smith for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
82.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 61 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
82.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 17 yds to the TexTc 42 SaRodorick Thompson fumbled, forced by Jairon McVea, recovered by Bayl Mark MiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3983% → 82%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.6%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+31
82.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 31 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
82.6%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
82.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
82.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
82.4%
Isaiah Hankins 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:2118% → 18%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
82.2%
(10:15) Smith,Donovan pass complete to Brooks,Tahj for 6 yards to the TTU28 (Pitre,Jalen; Milton,Mark) PENALTY BAY Offside (Ika,Siaki) 5 yards from TTU22 to TTU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
82.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 11 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+24
81.9%
Erik Ezukanma run for 24 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
81.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
81.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
81.3%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to J.J. SparkmanSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-7
81.4%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+46
82.2%
Jonathan Garibay 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4582% → 82%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
82.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
81.7%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
81.5%
Issac Power punt for 47 yds , Adrian Frye returns for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:0118% → 19%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.8%
Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
81.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
81.3%
Xavier White run for 8 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
80.8%
Xavier White run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
80.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
80.5%
Xavier White run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
81.0%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
81.5%
Austin McNamara punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:0982% → 80%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
81.5%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
81.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+6
81.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.5%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
81.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
81.6%
Blake Shapen sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
81.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+20
80.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 20 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
82.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+4
81.4%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 21
OWN 40
+6
81.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
80.4%
Issac Power punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:3319% → 19%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.0%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
81.0%
Xavier White run for 6 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
80.9%
(08:34) Smith,Donovan rush for 1 yard gain to the TTU29 (Hall,Gabe) PENALTY BAY Offside (Ika,Siaki) 5 yards from TTU28 to TTU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.8%
(08:18) Brooks,Tahj rush for 0 yards to the TTU33 (Walcott,Al) PENALTY TTU Holding offsetting BAY Targeting offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.8%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
80.8%
McLane Mannix run for 1 yd to the TexTc 34Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-10
80.7%
Donovan Smith sacked by Raleigh Texada for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 24 Donovan Smith fumbled, recovered by Bayl Raleigh Texada , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:0683% → 87%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
83.0%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
83.0%
Abram Smith run for 10 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
83.0%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.0%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.2%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3914% → 24%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
86.2%
Kaylon Geiger run for 22 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
85.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 7 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
85.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
85.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.6%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to J.J. SparkmanSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
85.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+31
86.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 31 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
83.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2581% → 81%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
80.5%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+7
80.3%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
80.5%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+2
80.6%
Issac Power punt for 64 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+2
80.6%
Issac Power punt for 64 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
83.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2919% → 19%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-15
80.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the TexTc 20Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
80.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Xavier WhiteSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
81.6%
Donovan Smith run for 13 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
80.8%
Austin McNamara punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14MISSED FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 2:2682% → 83%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
82.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
82.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+5
81.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
83.6%
Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
84.2%
Drew Estrada run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
83.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 10 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
85.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 7 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
85.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+7
84.6%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
85.5%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+8
85.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 8 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
85.5%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 22Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
85.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
84.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+41
83.3%
Isaiah Hankins 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5520% → 18%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
80.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 6 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
79.1%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
80.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Seth Collins) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
81.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 6:2783% → 88%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
83.1%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
83.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+17
82.6%
Abram Smith run for 17 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete pass intercepted fumbled, recovered by TexTcSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
85.3%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+24
84.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 24 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
86.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+15
87.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 15 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
87.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
87.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+4
87.9%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
86.9%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
88.7%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
87.7%
Isaiah Hankins 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4412% → 33%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to for 13 yds fumbled, recovered by Bayl for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+16
87.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 16 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
85.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 9 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+38
67.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to McLane Mannix for 38 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:1277% → 92%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
77.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
78.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+1
77.2%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+4
75.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
78.9%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
78.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Abram Smith for 8 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
79.0%
(08:25) Shapen,Blake pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Williams,Rayshad) 15 yards from TTU36 to TTU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
79.8%
Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
79.8%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 9 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:158% → 29%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Erik EzukanmaSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
71.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 75 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20DOWNS
19 plays · 56 yds · 4:5976% → 91%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
76.4%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+12
76.2%
Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
80.0%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
82.4%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
81.3%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.8%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
87.2%
Blake Shapen run for 12 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
90.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 12 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
90.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
91.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+1
90.8%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the TexTc 12Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
91.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Abram SmithSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
91.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Abram SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 0:5813% → 19%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
87.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 8 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
87.0%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+12
89.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 12 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
87.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 10 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.4%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Erik EzukanmaSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
86.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 6 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
84.6%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+19
88.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to McLane Mannix for 19 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.6%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+53
80.6%
Jonathan Garibay 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:40
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 75 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)
-20.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.4
TD · Q4 11:37
Donovan Smith pass complete to McLane Mannix for 38 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com