Try the model
OU

Oklahoma 14 at Baylor 27

BAY
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:26 · Gabe Brkic 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense−1.1Pregame prior−11.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:20: Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +7.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST down — BAY win probability +2.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:44: Tyquan Thornton 8 Yd pass from Gerry Bohanon (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +6.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 3:57: Gerry Bohanon 14 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:26: Kennedy Brooks 1 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +4.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:56OU 4th & 19 at OU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:00OU 4th & 19 at OU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:41BAY 4th & 2 at OU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:04BAY 4th & 2 at OU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:10BAY 4th & 6 at OU 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:26OU 4th & 4 at BAY 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:16OU 4th & 2 at BAY 23, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:49BAY 4th & 5 at OU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−9.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:45OU 4th & 10 at OU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−3.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:47OU 4th & 22 at OU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−2.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:20OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:44BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:57BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:26OU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · -9 yds · 14:5664% → 58%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
36.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 21Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the Okla 21Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-6
36.2%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 15Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
36.3%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+1
36.7%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Okla 16Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
36.9%
Michael Turk punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
42.0%
Michael Turk punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2DOWNS
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:1637% → 39%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
37.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
37.5%
Drew Estrada run for 5 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
37.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
37.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+5
37.9%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
38.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 12 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
38.9%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+13
39.2%
Gerry Bohanon run for 13 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
39.3%
Similar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
39.4%
Drew Estrada run for no gain to the Okla 12Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
39.6%
pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
39.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+8
39.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds to the Okla 4Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 4
0
39.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3861% → 60%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
39.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
39.2%
pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
39.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
39.6%
Caleb Williams pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5940% → 40%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
40.2%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 38Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
40.4%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Okla 38Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+10
40.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-5
40.7%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+5
40.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
40.3%
Isaiah Hankins 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:1861% → 60%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
39.1%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
39.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
38.7%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
38.9%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
39.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brayden WillisSimilar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+51
40.0%
Gabe Brkic 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
40.5%
Marvin Mims run for 15 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0142% → 44%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
41.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 12 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
42.9%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
43.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 16:2559% → 65%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed, broken up by Isaiah ThomasSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.8%
pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
41.1%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+29
41.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for 14 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Al Walcott) to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
40.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+18
40.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 18 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
39.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 4 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
39.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+15
40.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 15 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.1%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+3
35.4%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 9:1735% → 44%
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
35.3%
Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+29
35.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for 14 yds to the Bayl 41 BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Al Walcott) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-1
33.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
35.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
34.7%
Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
36.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+1
35.3%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+17
34.4%
Abram Smith run for 17 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
36.9%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Okla 35Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+26
36.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 16 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Key Lawrence) to the Okla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
36.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
37.0%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 8
OWN 0
+8
43.8%
Tyquan Thornton 8 Yd pass from Gerry Bohanon (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9MISSED FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 5:5052% → 46%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
47.8%
Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+26
48.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 16 yds to the Okla 19 OKLAHOMA Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Key Lawrence) to the Okla 9Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
48.7%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 8Similar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Michael Woods IISimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
56.2%
(04:06) Williams,Caleb pass incomplete to Mims,Marvin PENALTY BAY Holding (Milton,Mark) 10 yards from OKL28 to OKL38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
54.1%
Caleb Williams sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+19
56.5%
Caleb Williams run for 19 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
53.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 18 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
51.3%
Kennedy Brooks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
51.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
52.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
53.8%
Gabe Brkic 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · -9 yds · 4:4355% → 58%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Michael Woods II, broken up by Al WalcottSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
53.8%
Caleb Williams sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
57.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 19
-5
58.0%
(00:26) Smith,Abram rush for 16 yards gain to the BAY35 (Broiles,Justin) PENALTY BAY Illegal Shift (Sneed,R.J.) 5 yards from BAY19 to BAY14. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:2357% → 63%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
57.3%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 14
OWN 19
-5
57.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, illegal shift (R.J. Sneed) to the Okla 35Similar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
60.7%
Gerry Bohanon run for 28 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
63.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 3 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+15
64.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (David Ugwoegbu) to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
64.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Abram SmithSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
64.4%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Okla 21Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+7
64.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 7 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
63.1%
Isaiah Hankins 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4964% → 59%
Q3 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+15
64.1%
for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Perrion Winfrey) to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
64.3%
pass incomplete to Abram SmithSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
64.4%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 21Similar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Stogner for 10 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
61.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 9 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
58.6%
Caleb Williams pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5965% → 72%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
65.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for 23 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
68.8%
Gerry Bohanon sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 43Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
67.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+23
66.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 23 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
70.3%
PENALTY BAY Delay Of Game 5 yards from OKL20 to OKL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
71.6%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Okla 25Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+9
71.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds R.J. Sneed fumbled, forced by Brian Asamoah, recovered by Okla Nik BonittoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 2 yds · 4:5830% → 29%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
70.3%
Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
64.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
64.9%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Trevon WestSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+10
66.2%
(06:58) Williams,Caleb pass incomplete to Williams,Mario broken up by Milton,Mark PENALTY BAY Holding (Johnson,Lorando) 10 yards from OKL20 to OKL30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
64.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for 9 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+9
62.5%
Kennedy Brooks run for 9 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.6%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Austin StognerSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
63.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-10
67.4%
(05:00) Williams,Caleb rush for 12 yards gain to the BAY44 (Walcott,Al) PENALTY OKL Holding (Murray,Chris) 10 yards from OKL44 to OKL34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 24
OWN 34
-11
69.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the Okla 23 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by Okla Caleb Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 35
OWN 23
-5
70.5%
(03:36) Turk,Michael punt 59 yards to the BAY18 PENALTY OKL Illegal Formation 5 yards from OKL23 to OKL18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 40
OWN 18
0
70.8%
punt for 61 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for no gain to the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:4264% → 76%
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
63.9%
Caleb Williams sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-10
67.4%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive holding (Chris Murray) to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 24
OWN 34
-11
68.9%
Caleb Williams sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
74.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 4 yds to the Bayl 43 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+10
74.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
75.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:0124% → 25%
Q3 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-3
75.7%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+2
75.8%
Issac Power punt for 35 yds , Marvin Mims returns for 2 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.3%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Michael Woods IISimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
79.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for 18 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
73.6%
Spencer Rattler sacked by TJ Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.0%
Michael Turk punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 17 , Trestan Ebner returns for 7 yds to the Bayl 32 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (Al Walcott) to the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 2:0773% → 84%
Q3 0:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
73.4%
Spencer Rattler sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+75
79.7%
Abram Smith run for 75 yds to the Okla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
82.7%
(14:05) Ebner,Trestan rush for 2 yards loss to the OKL10 (Broiles,Justin), out of bounds PENALTY OKL Horse Collar Tackle (Broiles,Justin) 4 yards from OKL08 to OKL04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
83.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Okla 5Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.8%
Gerry Bohanon 5 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 4:0417% → 13%
Q4 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
83.4%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 5Similar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
81.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 13 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.9%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Kennedy BrooksSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
80.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 17 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
78.7%
Spencer Rattler run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-10
79.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 47Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+5
85.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-9
85.8%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 43Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 22
OWN 43
0
87.4%
Michael Turk punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 7:4679% → 98%
Q4 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-9
79.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Okla 43 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive holding (Brayden Willis) to the Okla 47Similar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.3%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
87.0%
(08:56) Bohanon,Gerry pass incomplete PENALTY OKL Offside (Bonitto,Nik) 5 yards from BAY23 to BAY28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
87.8%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
88.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+2
89.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+15
89.1%
Abram Smith run for 15 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
91.4%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+20
91.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 20 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
92.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 8 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+10
92.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
98.4%
Gerry Bohanon 14 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:182% → 5%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 12 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+50
97.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 50 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
97.3%
Caleb Williams run for 12 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.3%
(02:45) Williams,Caleb rush for 0 yards to the BAY01 (Bernard,Terrel; Doyle,Dillon) PENALTY BAY Illegal Substitution. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Kennedy Brooks 1 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
94.7%
PENALTY OKL UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Raym,Andrew) 15 yards from OKL35 to OKL20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
16 plays · 17 yds · 8:1490% → 99%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
90.0%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
92.3%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
93.9%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
95.9%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+2
96.1%
run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+3
96.5%
Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+12
96.4%
(01:27) Hankins,Isaiah field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD nullified by penalty, clock 01:27 PENALTY OKL Personal Foul (Stripling,Marcus) 12 yards from OKL24 to OKL12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
97.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 13Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-1
97.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+32
99.4%
Isaiah Hankins 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:20
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 4:44
Tyquan Thornton 8 Yd pass from Gerry Bohanon (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
+6.9
TD · Q4 3:57
Gerry Bohanon 14 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com