2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:25 · Michael Turk punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:31: Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 17 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) — TTU win probability +2.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:07: Marvin Mims 67 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +1.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:11: Caleb Williams pass complete to Brayden Willis for 8 yds for a TD — OU win probability +3.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:26: Drake Stoops 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +4.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:52: Marvin Mims 43 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:25TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q1 11:25OU 4th & 6 at OU 37, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it88.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q1 9:40TTU 4th & 5 at OU 49, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q2 14:07TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it13.0%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q2 3:41TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 48, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:44OU 4th & 15 at TTU 36, up 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.217% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%42% to makePunt96.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:00TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 43, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 0:44TTU 4th & 3 at OU 17, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%51% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.180% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q4 10:51TTU 4th & 2 at OU 48, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TTU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 1:07OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:26OU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:52OU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:10OU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:29TTU Touchdown, down 32 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1PUNT12 plays · 7 yds · 1:3510% → 10%
OUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0090% → 89%
TTUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4511% → 11%
OUDrive 4TD8 plays · 95 yds · 3:0889% → 89%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
88.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 3 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+31
88.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 31 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
89.0%
Williams,Caleb pass incomplete to West,Trevon PENALTY TTU Offside declined TTU Pass Interference (Dunlap,Malik) 15 yards from OKL45 to TTU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
89.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 17 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
88.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 22 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD9 plays · 83 yds · 3:5412% → 15%
Q1 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
88.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 4 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
88.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 13 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
87.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 16 yds to the OKLAHOMA 42 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Delarrin Turner-Yell) to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
85.1%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 17 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD4 plays · 78 yds · 1:1786% → 88%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
86.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 10 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0012% → 12%
OUDrive 8TD10 plays · 91 yds · 3:5688% → 92%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
87.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brayden Willis for 16 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
87.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 14 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+13
87.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 13 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
88.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 36 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9INT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:499% → 9%
Q2 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
90.7%
Colombi,Henry rush for 0 yards to the TTU27 (Broiles,Justin; Downs,Ethan) PENALTY TTU Holding (Storment,T.J.) 10 yards from TTU27 to TTU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+14
90.8%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 14 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD3 plays · 17 yds · 0:5692% → 96%
TTUDrive 11END OF HALF18 plays · 67 yds · 7:265% → 4%
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.1%
Henry Colombi run for no gain to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Reggie Grimes) to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
94.8%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Storment,T.J.) 5 yards from TTU40 to TTU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+15
95.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 15 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
95.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 14 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
94.7%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Rogers,Caleb) 5 yards from OKL07 to OKL12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
94.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 3 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+11
95.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 11 yds to the Okla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG13 plays · 39 yds · 5:1697% → 97%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 15 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
96.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 4 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+12
96.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 12 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
96.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 7 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-5
96.7%
PENALTY OKL False Start (Murray,Chris) 5 yards from TTU31 to TTU36. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13INT8 plays · 26 yds · 3:373% → 2%
OUDrive 14TD1 play · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:081% → 0%
Q3 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
99.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 17 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
98.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 23 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
98.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 7 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+8
98.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mason Tharp for 8 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
98.7%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Storment,T.J.) 5 yards from OKL24 to OKL29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+5
98.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 5 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
J.J. Sparkman 17 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jonathan Garibay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:04100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 9 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
99.8%
Kennedy Brooks run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+26
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 26 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+6
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 6 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 3 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Stogner for 9 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17FUMBLE10 plays · 20 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
Smith,Donovan pass incomplete to Geiger,Kaylon broken up by Graham,D.J. PENALTY OKL Pass Interference (Graham,D.J.) 15 yards from TTU29 to TTU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-10
99.9%
White,Xavier rush for 16 yards gain to the OKL37 (Turner-Yell,Delarrin) PENALTY TTU Holding (Deaton,Dawson) 10 yards from TTU47 to TTU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+10
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 10 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 49 Donovan Smith fumbled, forced by Isaiah Thomas, recovered by Okla Isaiah ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD4 plays · 49 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brian Darby for 7 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 16
OPP 42
+42
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brian Darby for 42 yds for a TD TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Krishon Merriweather) declined, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD7 plays · 62 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 18 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mason Tharp for 23 yds to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 5 yds to the Okla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20END OF GAME7 plays · 37 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q4 3:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jackson Sumlin for 6 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Damon Smith for no gain to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marcus Major for 12 yds Marcus Major fumbled, forced by Cam White, recovered by Okla for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:26
Drake Stoops 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Gabe Brkic Kick)
+4.7
TD · Q2 10:11
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brayden Willis for 8 yds for a TD
+3.5
TD · Q1 2:31
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 17 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)
-2.3