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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:00 · Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Eric Gray
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 1:30: Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +20.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:14: Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +19.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 12:35: Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +21.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:53: Caleb Williams run for 40 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +12.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:56: Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — KU win probability +19.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 3:00OU 4th & 15 at OU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.1%average punt
- Q2 11:24KU 4th & 10 at OU 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.224% to convertField goalTheir call8.2%87% to makePunt7.0%−1.2average punt
- Q2 5:32KU 4th & 9 at OU 38, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.2%32% to convertField goalTheir call14.0%−0.238% to makePunt13.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:00OU 4th & 6 at KU 33, down 10Close callWent for it · 79.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.1%−0.240% to convertField goal79.2%49% to makePunt77.7%−1.5average punt
- Q3 1:30KU 4th & 1 at OU 1, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.2%59% to convertField goal29.5%−5.694% to makePunt14.5%−20.7average punt
- Q4 14:03KU 4th & 8 at KU 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.6%−2.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
- Q4 7:53OU 4th & 3 at KU 40, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%52% to convertField goal77.2%−3.534% to makePunt77.6%−3.1average punt
- Q4 3:20OU 4th & 1 at OU 46, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt83.1%−3.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 5:45KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%97% to makeGo for two3.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57OU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.5%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:30KU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q3 0:14OU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.0%97% to makeGo for two59.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 12:35OU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.4%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 7:53OU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two91.8%45% to convert
- Q4 5:56KU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick20.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call20.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:42OU Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1TD18 plays · 80 yds · 9:072% → 4%
Q1 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
1.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 9 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
1.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Steven McBride for 7 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
1.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Josh Ellison) to the Kans 48Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 3
50
+5
2.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Isaiah Thomas) to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
2.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 8 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
2.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brian Asamoah) to the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4197% → 96%
KUDrive 3FG12 plays · 69 yds · 6:304% → 8%
OUDrive 4INT4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3692% → 92%
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
8.4%
Caleb Williams pass intercepted Ricky Thomas Jr. return for no gain to the Kans 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5MISSED FG13 plays · 42 yds · 5:049% → 13%
OUDrive 6DOWNS13 plays · 28 yds · 4:3288% → 81%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+5
13.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+17
13.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 17 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
13.9%
Williams, Caleb rush for 15 yards to the KANSAS26, PENALTY OKLAHOMA illegal block (Harrison, Anton) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 37
OWN 32
+31
16.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 16 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeremy Webb) to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-11
15.5%
Caleb Williams sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the Kans 48 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Caleb Williams) to the Kans 48Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 21
OPP 48
+14
16.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 14 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+6
17.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 6 yds to the Kans 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4220% → 22%
OUDrive 8TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0078% → 80%
Q3 13:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
25.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 11 yds Jeremiah Hall fumbled, forced by Rich Miller, recovered by Okla Jeremiah Hall for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
26.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 1
50
+12
26.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 12 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
26.6%
Caleb Williams sacked by Gavin Potter for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 40Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+5
28.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 5 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+12
29.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 12 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
20.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 5 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2324% → 57%
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
29.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jordan Kelley) to the Kans 48Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+22
31.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 22 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
35.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Steven McBride for 20 yds to the Okla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5243% → 69%
Q3 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
30.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5838% → 41%
Q4 14:03
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+16
40.9%
Reis Vernon punt for 36 yds , Marvin Mims returns for 16 yds to the Kans 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:2164% → 85%
KUDrive 13FUMBLE7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0822% → 27%
Q4 11:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
22.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 13 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+25
23.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 25 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-5
27.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Steven McBride for a loss of 5 yards Steven McBride fumbled, forced by Key Lawrence, recovered by Okla Justin BroilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD5 plays · 47 yds · 1:2483% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:499% → 31%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
8.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 28 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
10.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+19
11.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 19 yds to the Okla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
30.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:0583% → 98%
Q4 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+7
15.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 49 for a 1ST down Caleb Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17END OF GAME6 plays · 38 yds · 0:342% → 2%
Q4 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
2.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 7 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
2.4%
Jason Bean sacked by Nik Bonitto for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+29
2.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 29 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:35
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-21
TD · Q3 1:30
Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+20
TD · Q3 0:14
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-19.8