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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:06 · Michael Turk punt for 61 yds , Derius Davis returns for no gain to the TCU 29 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (Keontae Jenkins) to the TCU 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:40: Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 17 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +2.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:43: Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 53 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +3.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:27: Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 20 yds for a TD OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined — TCU win probability +5.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 11:48: Jadon Haselwood 16 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +3.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 1:09: Eric Gray 2 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick) — TCU win probability +7.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 10:04TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%average punt
- Q1 0:23OU 4th & 8 at TCU 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snapGo for it79.6%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call79.7%58% to makePunt78.1%−1.6average punt
- Q2 13:50TCU 4th & 2 at OU 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.2%57% to convertField goal20.7%−0.656% to makePunt20.1%−1.2average punt
- Q2 11:13OU 4th & 11 at TCU 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snapGo for it78.8%−0.622% to convertField goalTheir call79.4%87% to makePunt76.3%−3.1average punt
- Q2 2:50OU 4th & 9 at OU 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snapGo for it62.7%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.8%average punt
- Q2 1:43TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 24, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it33.8%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q3 13:21TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 40, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it39.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%−1.4average punt
- Q3 4:38TCU 4th & 4 at OU 4, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snapGo for it48.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call47.2%−1.193% to makePunt33.5%−14.8average punt
- Q3 0:02TCU 4th & 9 at OU 38, up 4Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it54.5%32% to convertField goal53.8%−0.638% to makePuntTheir call53.6%−0.8average punt
- Q4 13:00OU 4th & 10 at OU 6, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it40.1%−3.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q4 10:06OU 4th & 6 at OU 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it39.5%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.7%average punt
- Q4 6:53TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snapGo for it61.5%−2.935% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:01OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.0%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:40OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:43TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.1%97% to makeGo for two20.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3981% → 81%
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
80.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 7 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
80.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 15 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
80.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 8 yds to the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3619% → 19%
OUDrive 3TD8 plays · 62 yds · 4:0081% → 84%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
81.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brayden Willis for 6 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-5
81.2%
Williams, Caleb pass complete to Woods II, Michael for 39 yards to the TCU6, PENALTY OKLAHOMA ineligible downfield on pass (Raym, Andrew) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 12
50
+35
81.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Trevon West for 35 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
83.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 17 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2717% → 20%
OUDrive 5MISSED FG8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5281% → 80%
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+41
80.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 41 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 13
OPP 34
-6
80.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Ochaun Mathis for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+11
80.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the TCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6DOWNS6 plays · 41 yds · 1:1220% → 20%
OUDrive 7FG7 plays · 59 yds · 2:1781% → 82%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
80.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 7 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+59
81.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for 59 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
81.8%
Caleb Williams sacked by Ochaun Mathis for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD16 plays · 78 yds · 6:1317% → 26%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
83.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 10 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+8
82.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 8 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+8
82.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 8 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
81.4%
Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the Okla 10 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derius Davis) to the Okla 20Similar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 11
OPP 20
+20
76.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 20 yds for a TD OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
74.5%
Quentin Johnston 20 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0569% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0134% → 34%
OUDrive 11TD9 plays · 76 yds · 1:0566% → 69%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
65.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 28 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
68.6%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Mims, Marvin, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Carter, T.J.) 15 yards to the TCU31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
70.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for 16 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+5
68.8%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Woods II, Michael, PENALTY TCU offside (Mathis, Ochaun) 5 yards to the TCU11, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2738% → 38%
Q3 13:21
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
61.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD4 plays · 77 yds · 1:1263% → 67%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for no gain to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
62.1%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Mims, Marvin, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Carter, T.J.) 16 yards to the OKLAHOMA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
67.0%
Jadon Haselwood 16 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Gabe Brkic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:2940% → 41%
OUDrive 16TD5 plays · 33 yds · 1:0266% → 66%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
66.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+15
62.6%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Woods II, Michael, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Ceasar II, C.J.) 15 yards to the TCU23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
66.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brayden Willis for 16 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG13 plays · 71 yds · 4:1241% → 48%
OUDrive 18TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4054% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
44.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 7 yds Derius Davis fumbled, recovered by Okla Latrell McCutchin , return for 37 yds DaShaun White fumbled, forced by Brandon Coleman, recovered by TCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 49 yds · 1:2854% → 57%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
45.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Daimarqua Foster for 22 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
41.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 19 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
43.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0047% → 42%
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 13
-5
45.5%
Williams, Caleb rush for 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA18, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Willis, Brayden) 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 10
OWN 6
+22
42.1%
Michael Turk punt for 63 yds , Derius Davis returns for 22 yds to the Okla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD4 plays · 47 yds · 1:1963% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3945% → 39%
Q4 10:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
38.5%
Michael Turk punt for 61 yds , Derius Davis returns for no gain to the TCU 29 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (Keontae Jenkins) to the TCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:1263% → 67%
Q4 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
33.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 50 yds , Marvin Mims returns for no gain to the Okla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD10 plays · 68 yds · 5:0138% → 36%
Q4 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+17
43.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (T.J. Carter) to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 38 yds · 0:4594% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+96.1
TD · Q4 1:09
Eric Gray 2 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)
-7.3
TD · Q2 4:27
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 20 yds for a TD OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined
-5.3