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OU

Oklahoma 55 at Texas 48

TEX
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:02 · Michael Turk punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense+14.8Pregame prior−6.5Garbage-time factor+2.8Score differential+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:45: Caleb Williams run for 66 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +10.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:25: Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 52 yds for a TD, (Spencer Rattler pass to Drake Stoops for Two-Point Conversion) — OU win probability +33.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:10: Kennedy Brooks run for 18 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +37.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:23: Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 31 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +43.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:03: Kennedy Brooks run for 33 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +34.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:16OU 4th & 16 at OU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:11TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:57OU 4th & 20 at OU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:45OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00OU 4th & 6 at TEX 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−5.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:02OU 4th & 5 at TEX 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−7.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02OU 4th & 5 at OU 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:15TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 3, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−4.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:22OU 4th & 3 at TEX 12, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:45TEX 4th & 7 at OU 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:43TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:44OU 4th & 5 at TEX 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−5.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:36TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 10, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−4.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:39TEX 4th & 11 at OU 24, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−8.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:55OU 4th & 9 at OU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:46TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:07TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:14OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:39TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:02TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:45OU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:41TEX Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:02OU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:25OU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    39.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:10OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:23TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−3.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:03OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
36.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 75 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2063% → 62%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.7%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
37.3%
Spencer Rattler sacked by DeMarvion Overshown for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 19Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+17
37.8%
Michael Turk punt blocked by DeMarvion Overshown, recovered by TEX Brenden Schooler at the Okla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0638% → 39%
Q1 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.0%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4962% → 60%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.5%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
39.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for no gain to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+29
39.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 29 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
39.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 15 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
40.0%
Jeremiah Hall run for 6 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+13
40.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 13 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
40.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 7 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
41.3%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Jeremiah HallSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+3
41.7%
Kennedy Brooks run for 3 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.8%
Spencer Rattler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0341% → 42%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
40.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Christian Jones) to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
41.0%
Casey Thompson run for 3 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
41.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Cade Brewer for 7 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
41.6%
Casey Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
41.7%
Cameron Dicker punt for 41 yds, downed at the Okla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0858% → 57%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
42.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
42.5%
Spencer Rattler run for 6 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
42.6%
Spencer Rattler pass intercepted B.J. Foster return for no gain to the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:0444% → 50%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
44.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 27 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
44.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 14 yds to the Okla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
50.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 10 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3652% → 49%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.3%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
48.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 22Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
49.9%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Alfred Collins for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 15Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
50.8%
Michael Turk punt for 85 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4652% → 62%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
51.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 9 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
52.4%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
51.9%
Jordan Whittington run for 8 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
52.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
53.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
62.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 48 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0238% → 48%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
63.8%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Michael Woods IISimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
64.5%
Eric Gray run for 8 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+66
52.1%
Caleb Williams run for 66 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1954% → 54%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
54.5%
Casey Thompson sacked by Perrion Winfrey for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
54.5%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Bijan RobinsonSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
54.2%
Cameron Dicker punt for 50 yds, downed at the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:0246% → 49%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+48
54.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 48 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
52.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
52.1%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Eric GraySimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
52.8%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
50.9%
Gabe Brkic 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:4953% → 54%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
53.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 16 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
54.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
55.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
54.5%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Cade BrewerSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
53.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:4347% → 46%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
53.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 17 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
52.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 9 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
52.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
53.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
54.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eric Gray for 14 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
53.9%
Spencer Rattler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 45 Spencer Rattler fumbled, forced by Ben Davis, recovered by Texas DeMarvion OvershownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1958% → 68%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
58.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+50
58.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 50 yds to the Okla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jared Wiley for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:3433% → 34%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jeremiah HallSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
68.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 24 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
66.1%
Eric Gray run for 15 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
65.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Trevon West for 8 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
65.5%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
67.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
67.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
67.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
68.6%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
65.8%
Gabe Brkic 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17END OF HALF
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:5469% → 77%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
69.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
70.2%
Xavier Worthy run for 7 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
72.4%
Casey Thompson sacked by Nik Bonitto for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 29 TEXAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Casey Thompson) to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+39
71.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 39 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.6%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
73.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+11
73.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 11 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
76.7%
Cameron Dicker 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4922% → 21%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
77.7%
Caleb Williams run for 17 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the Okla 42Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
78.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
78.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Michael Woods IISimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
78.6%
Michael Turk punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3582% → 82%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
82.2%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+2
80.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 2 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 12
OWN 6
-3
82.2%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Derek Kerstetter) to the Texas 3Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 15
OWN 3
0
82.6%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 15
OWN 3
0
81.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:4421% → 20%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
79.5%
Kennedy Brooks run for 9 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
78.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
82.8%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
82.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+11
83.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
83.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Texas 18Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
84.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 5 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
85.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Stogner for 1 yd to the Texas 12Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
80.3%
Gabe Brkic 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:2385% → 92%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
84.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 17 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
85.8%
Thompson, Casey pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Angilau, Junior) 10 yards to the TEXAS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+33
85.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 33 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
88.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+8
89.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 8 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
89.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 3 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
90.4%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
90.4%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Marcus WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
92.0%
Cameron Dicker 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:169% → 20%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+65
91.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 65 yds to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
89.8%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 14Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
90.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+14
80.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 14 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:4784% → 84%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
84.5%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Jake Majors) to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
84.9%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
84.3%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
84.0%
Cameron Dicker punt for 78 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:5216% → 20%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+47
85.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 47 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
80.3%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
80.8%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
81.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Trevon West for 5 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
82.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Michael Woods IISimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
83.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
79.6%
Gabe Brkic 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5485% → 85%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
85.1%
Casey Thompson sacked by Danny Stutsman and Nik Bonitto for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 10Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 18
OWN 10
0
86.0%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 18
OWN 10
0
85.4%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 18
OWN 10
0
84.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 3:0219% → 49%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
80.9%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
81.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 13 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
80.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 6 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-9
80.9%
Williams, Caleb rush for 10 yards to the TEXAS27, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Murray, Chris) 9 yards to the TEXAS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 14
OPP 47
-5
83.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 48Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 19
OWN 48
+52
50.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 52 yds for a TD, (Spencer Rattler pass to Drake Stoops for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
15.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 18 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1923% → 20%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+48
23.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 48 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
31.0%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+1
28.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
25.2%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Marcus WashingtonSimilar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 11
OPP 24
0
20.2%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Bijan RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4286% → 87%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
13.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Marquis Hayes) to the Okla 19Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+3
13.8%
Caleb Williams run for 3 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+2
13.8%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+1
13.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 1 yd to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+9
12.7%
Michael Turk punt for 44 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for 9 yds to the Texas 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 30TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:2323% → 66%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
22.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
21.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 6 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
22.1%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Jake Majors) to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
16.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Cade Brewer for 11 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
18.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 14 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
21.8%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
65.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 31 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 31TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1051% → 96%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
45.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
46.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 12 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
43.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 10 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
40.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Stogner for 11 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
4.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 33 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:23
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 31 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+43.8
TD · Q4 7:10
Kennedy Brooks run for 18 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-37.1
TD · Q4 0:03
Kennedy Brooks run for 33 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-34.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com