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TEX

Texas 32 at TCU 27

TCU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:42 · Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior−5.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:33: JD Spielman 11 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +4.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:01: Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +12.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:45: Griffin Kell 36 Yd Field Goal — TCU win probability +6.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:46: Jordan Whittington 32 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TEX win probability +13.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:23: Kendre Miller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +18.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:02TEX 4th & 16 at TCU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:08TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:50TEX 4th & 7 at TCU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:22TEX 4th & 8 at TCU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:42TCU 4th & 1 at TEX 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−1.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:19TCU 4th & 3 at TEX 8, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−7.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:52TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 39, down 6
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:27TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:19TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 10, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%−3.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−12.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:45TCU 4th & 8 at TEX 19, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:49TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:32TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 1, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−12.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:08TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:57TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:33TCU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:01TEX Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:46TEX Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:23TCU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2042% → 43%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
42.1%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Texas 12Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
42.5%
Zach Evans 12 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:4858% → 56%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.5%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Bijan RobinsonSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
42.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
42.7%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
42.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 16 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
43.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+7
43.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
43.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
43.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-5
44.0%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-10
44.5%
Casey Thompson sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+38
44.2%
Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5444% → 44%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
44.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 3 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
44.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
44.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 62 yds, downed at the Texas 1Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
44.2%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 4:0055% → 58%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
44.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
44.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+15
45.3%
TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
45.3%
Casey Thompson run for 41 yds to the TCU 37 Casey Thompson fumbled, recovered by TexasSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
44.7%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
44.8%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+11
45.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 11 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+1
45.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
42.5%
Bijan Robinson 27 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:4843% → 45%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.3%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
44.1%
Zach Evans run for 15 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
44.6%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+15
44.5%
Derius Davis run for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 23 Derius Davis fumbled, recovered by Texas D'Shawn Jamison , return for 15 yds to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5058% → 59%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
42.5%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
42.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
43.0%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
41.4%
Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5742% → 49%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
42.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 22 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
43.6%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+23
43.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 23 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
44.4%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
44.6%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
48.5%
JD Spielman 11 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:0953% → 52%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
47.1%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+7
47.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+10
47.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
46.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
46.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
46.9%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+2
48.0%
Cameron Dicker punt for 52 yds , Derius Davis returns for 2 yds to the TCU 9 Derius Davis fumbled, recovered by TexasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4155% → 56%
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
45.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
45.3%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
46.0%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
44.2%
Cameron Dicker 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 5:3445% → 52%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.4%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
45.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
45.4%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
46.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+18
45.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 18 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
48.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 3 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+10
48.4%
Max Duggan run for 10 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
49.4%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
49.5%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
48.6%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+9
47.6%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
49.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 4 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
49.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
47.9%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
51.7%
Griffin Kell 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:1252% → 66%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
48.2%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+15
47.6%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
47.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
46.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 11 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
46.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+8
46.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 8 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
46.3%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
46.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.8%
Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5538% → 37%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
37.8%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
37.6%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+15
36.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for no gain to the TCU 19 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
37.8%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
39.5%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-3
38.9%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
37.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds, downed at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:4363% → 65%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
36.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+18
36.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 3 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
35.3%
Casey Thompson pass intercepted Nook Bradford return for no gain to the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4537% → 37%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
37.4%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
37.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 10 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
37.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 11 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
39.2%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-15
40.0%
TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 22
OWN 33
0
37.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0364% → 62%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
36.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
35.6%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-11
36.8%
Casey Thompson sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 15Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 18
OWN 15
0
38.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3641% → 43%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
41.0%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
41.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
41.4%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
41.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
41.7%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
41.6%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
43.4%
Max Duggan sacked by Anthony Cook for a loss of 16 yards to the Texas 49 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by Texas Anthony Cook , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1067% → 72%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
32.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+5
35.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+5
35.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+37
34.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 37 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
30.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
30.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
30.9%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+28
28.0%
Cameron Dicker 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:2730% → 38%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
31.4%
Zach Evans run for 33 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
34.0%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+7
33.0%
Kendre Miller run for 7 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+3
32.6%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+2
31.3%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
37.6%
Griffin Kell 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4668% → 87%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.8%
Casey Thompson run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
29.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
30.8%
Casey Thompson run for 4 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
28.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
27.6%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 6 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
27.8%
Casey Thompson run for 1 yd to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
27.2%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
27.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 12 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.5%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
26.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 1 yd to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+9
26.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
13.3%
Jordan Whittington 32 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4918% → 17%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.6%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
16.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
16.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:5887% → 91%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
13.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 17 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
11.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
10.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 17 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
9.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
9.0%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
9.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.9%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 4:4613% → 31%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
13.0%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+1
13.0%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
12.5%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+6
11.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quincy Brown for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+7
9.4%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
9.8%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+25
9.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to JD Spielman for 25 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
10.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 12 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
13.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 5 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+15
13.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 15 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
12.5%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
12.5%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
30.6%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24Uncategorized
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:0483% → 96%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
17.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
14.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
12.5%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
12.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
11.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
7.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 13 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
5.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
4.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:23
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q4 13:46
Jordan Whittington 32 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-13.4
TD · Q2 4:01
Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com