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SMU

SMU 42 at TCU 34

TCU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense−4.3Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:49: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:19: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +11.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:09: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +20.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:19: Jordan Kerley 26 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Blake Mazza Kick) — SMU win probability +17.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:05: Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 21 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +15.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:28TCU 4th & 6 at SMU 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:54SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 49, down 1
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:16TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:00SMU 4th & 3 at TCU 3, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−3.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−14.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:27TCU 4th & 11 at SMU 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−8.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:19TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−4.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:22TCU 4th & 7 at SMU 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:32TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:50SMU 4th & 18 at TCU 42, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:08SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:48TCU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:44SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 7:14TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:49SMU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:19SMU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:09SMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:05TCU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:4623% → 23%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
77.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
77.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+68
76.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 68 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:1277% → 76%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
76.7%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
76.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-5
76.8%
PENALTY TCU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SMU45 to SMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
50
+11
76.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 11 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
76.8%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coker,Andrew) 5 yards from SMU39 to SMU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+15
76.7%
Duggan,Max pass incomplete to Johnston,Quentin PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Denbow,Trevor) 15 yards from SMU44 to SMU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
76.8%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+3
76.8%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+20
76.4%
Kendre Miller run for 20 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0424% → 27%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+46
76.2%
Tre Siggers run for 46 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
75.8%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Rice,Rashee) 5 yards from TCU29 to TCU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+10
75.9%
Tre Siggers run for 10 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+20
75.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 20 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q1 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.9%
Tanner Mordecai 4 Yd Run (Ben Redding Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3074% → 76%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
73.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 60 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
74.5%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
75.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 13 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5INT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5426% → 27%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
74.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 9 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
74.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
74.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+11
74.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
73.9%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
73.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
73.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:5274% → 75%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
74.3%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+27
74.4%
Zach Evans run for 27 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
74.8%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
74.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
74.9%
Griffin Kell 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:3425% → 26%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
74.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+14
74.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 14 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
74.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Tre SiggersSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+5
74.3%
Mordecai,Tanner pass complete to Bentley IV,Ulysses for 1 yard loss to the SMU43 (VanZandt,La'Kendrick) PENALTY TCU Offside (Horton,Dylan) 5 yards from SMU44 to SMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
73.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
74.0%
Brendan Hall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:2374% → 75%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
74.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
74.1%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+9
73.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 9 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
74.1%
Max Duggan run for 28 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
75.3%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+46
75.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 46 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4225% → 32%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
73.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+11
73.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
73.1%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
72.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+4
73.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
67.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 8 yds · 4:3371% → 67%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
70.7%
PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rogers,D'Andre) 12 yards from TCU25 to TCU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+14
70.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 14 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.1%
TCU Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 18
OWN 33
-5
70.6%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coker,Andrew) 5 yards from TCU33 to TCU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 23
OWN 28
0
70.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 23
OWN 28
+5
69.8%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
70.5%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
70.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to JD Spielman for 5 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
70.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 4 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
70.9%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
66.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11INT
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:1634% → 39%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
66.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
66.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 10 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
65.3%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
65.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+7
65.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 7 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
64.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
64.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
63.9%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
64.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 9 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+7
64.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
63.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 2 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.7%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the TCU 3Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-6
64.0%
Max Duggan sacked by Turner Coxe for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 3 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by SMU DeVere Levelston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2541% → 53%
Q3 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:4552% → 54%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
52.1%
Zach Evans run for 27 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
54.7%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
54.7%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+8
54.6%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
56.0%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
56.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-10
54.4%
Duggan,Max rush for 10 yards gain to the SMU10 (Wiley,Gary) PENALTY TCU Holding (Coker,Andrew) 10 yards from SMU20 to SMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 18
OPP 30
+7
52.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 7 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
53.7%
Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1849% → 73%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+31
50.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 31 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
48.1%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+8
47.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
47.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+16
47.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 16 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
27.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:5036% → 32%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.4%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
34.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to JD Spielman for 11 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
36.3%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
36.8%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
37.6%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 39 Max Duggan fumbled, forced by Jimmy Phillips Jr., recovered by TCU Andrew CokerSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+13
35.8%
Max Duggan run for 13 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+4
37.7%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
32.4%
PENALTY SMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
32.3%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5778% → 81%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
21.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
21.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
21.4%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Thomas,Jaylon) 5 yards from TCU43 to TCU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+4
21.9%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
18.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0032% → 31%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
32.1%
TCU Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
32.1%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
27.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
30.9%
Griffin Kell 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4171% → 92%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
28.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 15 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
26.6%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
26.5%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
26.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 13 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
25.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
8.3%
Jordan Kerley 26 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4716% → 10%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quincy Brown for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
15.9%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
15.8%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Johnston,Quentin) 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
15.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quincy BrownSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
10.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:4293% → 96%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
6.9%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+1
6.9%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+17
7.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for 17 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
6.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 13 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
6.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
6.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+1
6.8%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 13
OPP 37
-5
7.6%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Bryant,Marcus) 5 yards from TCU37 to TCU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
4.4%
Matt Fraanje punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 1:455% → 22%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
5.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+13
5.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 13 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
5.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
5.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 12 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
5.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 12 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
6.3%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coker,Andrew) 5 yards from TCU46 to TCU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+38
5.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to JD Spielman for 38 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
21.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 21 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:5990% → 97%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
10.2%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
10.5%
Tre Siggers run for 13 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.1%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
6.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 11 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
5.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
5.8%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
3.6%
Tanner Mordecai run for 12 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
3.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
2.7%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:09
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
-20.3
TD · Q4 12:19
Jordan Kerley 26 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Blake Mazza Kick)
-17
TD · Q4 4:05
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 21 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com