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CAL

California 32 at TCU 34

TCU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:05 · Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the TCU 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+25.7Home team on offense−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:09: Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 7 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +11.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Zach Evans run for 51 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +13.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:53: Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 45 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CAL win probability +11.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:47: Max Duggan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +21.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:09: Damien Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CAL win probability +26.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:05CAL 4th & 1 at TCU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:44TCU 4th & 22 at TCU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:03TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:50CAL 4th & 18 at CAL 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:39TCU 4th & 14 at CAL 47, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 28, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:44CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:14TCU 4th & 7 at CAL 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−8.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:26CAL 4th & 4 at TCU 48, down 5
    Close callPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:30TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 36, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:56CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 5:01CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:02CAL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:01TCU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:09CAL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11TCU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:43TCU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:47TCU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:09CAL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:5522% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.8%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
77.8%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Moore,Collin) 5 yards from CAL27 to CAL22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
77.8%
Damien Moore run for 8 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
77.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
77.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 49 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
77.8%
Nikko Remigio run for 5 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
77.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
77.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 3 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
76.4%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:2177% → 75%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
76.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
76.7%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
76.8%
Derius Davis run for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+5
76.5%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
76.8%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
76.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 7
OWN 42
-15
76.5%
PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eze,Obinna) 15 yards from TCU42 to TCU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 22
OWN 27
0
75.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:4325% → 27%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
75.4%
Garbers,Chase pass incomplete to Clark,Trevon PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Ceasar,C.J.) 15 yards from CAL32 to CAL47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
75.0%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+1
75.3%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+54
72.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 54 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5773% → 73%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
73.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Carter WareSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
73.2%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
72.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
72.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1728% → 28%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.4%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
72.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 4 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
72.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
72.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3973% → 71%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
72.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to JD Spielman for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+9
73.0%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-12
73.4%
Max Duggan sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 12 yards to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+9
72.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quincy Brown for 9 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
70.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:1029% → 33%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
70.8%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+28
70.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 28 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
69.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
69.2%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
69.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
69.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+6
69.0%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-9
69.1%
Chase Garbers sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 13
OWN 47
-5
67.3%
Sheahan,Jamieson punt 41 yards to the TCU12 fair catch by Davis,Derius at TCU12 PENALTY CAL Illegal Formation 5 yards from CAL47 to CAL42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
67.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8INT TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4868% → 58%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
67.8%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
67.7%
TCU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Max Duggan) to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 16
OWN 5
-8
59.5%
Daniel Scott 8 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q2 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
57.8%
PENALTY CAL Delay Of Game 5 yards from TCU03 to TCU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
57.8%
PENALTY TCU Offside (Ceasar,C.J.) 4 yards from TCU08 to TCU04. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0161% → 69%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.5%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
60.8%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
60.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 6 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
60.8%
Zach Evans run for 22 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
61.9%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
61.9%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+9
61.5%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
69.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 30 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5235% → 47%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+68
64.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 68 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 7 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2455% → 50%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
54.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 12 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
55.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 14 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
55.8%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
56.4%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
56.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-15
56.2%
Max Duggan sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 15 yards to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 25
OWN 42
+11
54.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 11 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
50.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1152% → 55%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
47.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
47.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
45.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa Crawford pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
45.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:1747% → 61%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
47.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 14 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
60.6%
Zach Evans run for 51 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
56.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1759% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.3%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
61.0%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
60.2%
JD Spielman run for 6 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
60.2%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+16
58.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 16 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
62.4%
Kendre Miller run for 18 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
64.3%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
64.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+9
62.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 9 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
64.3%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-10
64.3%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+7
62.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for 7 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
73.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 18 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5930% → 29%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Damien MooreSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
70.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
71.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:3071% → 77%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
70.7%
Zach Evans run for 11 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
72.8%
Zach Evans run for 16 yds to the CALIFORNIA 40 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Cameron Goode) to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.5%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
74.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 3 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
72.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
76.9%
Griffin Kell 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:4827% → 30%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
72.6%
Damien Moore run for 11 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
71.4%
Damien Moore run for 13 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Justin Richard BakerSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
70.3%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
68.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Justin Richard BakerSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
70.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5675% → 74%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
74.5%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+12
74.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 12 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
75.6%
Zach Evans run for 13 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
76.1%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
77.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quincy BrownSimilar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
75.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Marcel BrooksSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
74.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5328% → 37%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
72.3%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Terry II,Jermaine) 5 yards from CAL20 to CAL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+12
72.4%
Chase Garbers run for 12 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
71.5%
TCU Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Dylan Horton) to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
66.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-3
67.1%
Chase Garbers sacked by La'Kendrick Van Zandt for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+18
70.9%
Chase Garbers run for 18 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
64.4%
Nikko Remigio run for 13 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.3%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
63.2%
Damien Moore run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4479% → 71%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.3%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
80.6%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
81.8%
Duggan,Max pass incomplete to Johnston,Quentin PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Anusiem,Chigozie) 15 yards from TCU41 to CAL44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
82.6%
JD Spielman run for 1 yd to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+45
70.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 45 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5736% → 34%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.4%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
62.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for no gain to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
64.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
66.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 3:0966% → 94%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
66.1%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+8
67.0%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
66.9%
Zach Evans run for 15 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+33
70.8%
Max Duggan run for 33 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
72.6%
Duggan,Max rush for 5 yards loss to the CAL23 (Goode,Cameron) PENALTY CAL Horse Collar Tackle (Goode,Cameron) 9 yards from CAL18 to CAL09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.8%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3811% → 43%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.0%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
86.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
88.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 12 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
86.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 42 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
83.9%
Chase Garbers run for 13 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.5%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25END OF GAME
14 plays · 17 yds · 4:0975% → 95%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.5%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
74.6%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
74.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
78.6%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
80.3%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+6
80.5%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
83.0%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
82.6%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-11
95.2%
run for a loss of 11 yards to the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:09
Damien Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-26.4
TD · Q4 5:47
Max Duggan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+21.2
TD · Q2 0:11
Zach Evans run for 51 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com