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TLSA

Tulsa 23 at Oklahoma State 28

OKST
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:37 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+15.8Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:37: Deneric Prince 3 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick) — TLSA win probability +19.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:52: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +22.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:56: Zack Long 20 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +14.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:41: LD Brown 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Alex Hale Kick) — OKST win probability +32.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:06: Anthony Watkins 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TLSA win probability +15.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:38OKST 4th & 20 at OKST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:16TLSA 4th & 28 at TLSA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:51OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:51OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:59TLSA 4th & 5 at OKST 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:09TLSA 4th & 15 at OKST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:17OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:13TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:29TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:12OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:37TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 19, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:41OKST 4th & 7 at TLSA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.0%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:09TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:51OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:32OKST 4th & 1 at TLSA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%−4.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−17.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:56TLSA 4th & 2 at OKST 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%−5.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−26.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:56TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 4:05OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:44TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:37TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:52OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:41OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:59OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:06TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:2282% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.0%
LD Brown run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
82.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 11 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
82.0%
LD Brown run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
82.0%
LD Brown run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
50
+2
82.0%
LD Brown run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-10
82.0%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 10 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 20
OWN 42
0
81.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 5:2219% → 20%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
81.1%
Davis Brin run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+7
81.1%
Davis Brin run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
81.1%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
81.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
80.4%
Brin,Davis pass intercepted by Taylor II,Jason at Tul39 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:17 PENALTY OSU Holding (McCalister,Tanner) 10 yards from Tul34 to Tul44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
80.1%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+13
80.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
80.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-10
80.0%
Brin,Davis pass complete to Crawford Jr.,Sam for 12 yards to the OSU25 (McCalister,Tanner) PENALTY Tul Holding (Smith,Tyler) 10 yards from OSU37 to OSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 19
OPP 47
+6
80.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 25
OWN 47
+3
80.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Deneric Prince for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 28
OWN 44
0
79.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2579% → 78%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
79.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+11
79.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
79.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+5
79.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
79.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
78.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 49 ydsSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
78.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5222% → 23%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
78.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+9
78.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 9 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
77.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
77.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to James Palmer for 3 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
77.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for no gain to the OKSt 43 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyon Davis) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
76.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0678% → 77%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
77.8%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
77.0%
LD Brown run for no gain to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
76.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:4424% → 24%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
76.5%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
76.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+19
76.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 19 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
75.6%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
75.6%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+8
75.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 8 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
74.5%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
74.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-9
75.1%
Davis Brin sacked by Ben Kopenski for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 39Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
75.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5277% → 75%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
75.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
75.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0425% → 26%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
74.6%
Davis Brin run for 22 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
73.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-6
73.5%
Davis Brin sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
73.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0876% → 82%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.6%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
75.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
75.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
76.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+43
75.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 28 yds to the OKLAST 34 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Robert Revels III) to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
78.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+2
77.2%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 17
OPP 26
+26
82.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 26 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3619% → 18%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
81.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
81.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11INT TD
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4583% → 74%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
82.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to LD Brown for 1 yd to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-55
74.3%
Justin Wright 55 Yd Interception Return (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 1:3273% → 71%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
73.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 6 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
74.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 22 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
75.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dezmon JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
75.7%
LD Brown run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-5
73.8%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Sills,Josh) 5 yards from Tul42 to Tul47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 15
OPP 47
-4
72.4%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Cullen Wick for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 19
OWN 49
0
71.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 19
OWN 49
0
70.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
68.7%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1931% → 30%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
69.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+4
69.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
69.8%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
70.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5672% → 71%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
72.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 13 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
73.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
74.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
74.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
74.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
71.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3232% → 31%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Deneric Prince for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
67.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
67.0%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
68.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to James PalmerSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 15
OWN 29
0
68.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
69.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1871% → 69%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
70.2%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1434% → 58%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
66.4%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+20
66.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Deneric Prince for 20 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+40
63.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 40 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
61.3%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
61.3%
Deneric Prince run for 9 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
61.3%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.7%
Deneric Prince 3 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
18 plays · 76 yds · 5:4050% → 69%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
49.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
49.7%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+16
48.3%
Sanders,Spencer pass incomplete to Green,Bryson PENALTY Tul Pass Interference (Carlisle,Tyree) 16 yards from OSU24 to OSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
52.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for no gain to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
51.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 21 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
54.6%
Sanders,Spencer pass incomplete to Presley,Brennan PENALTY Tul Offside (Lamp,Deven) 5 yards from Tul39 to Tul34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+3
56.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+6
56.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
56.9%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
56.6%
Richardson,Dominic rush for 9 yards gain to the Tul16 (Martin,TieNeal; Ray,Kendarin) PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation offsetting Tul Targeting offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
56.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+7
54.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
53.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
56.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+1
49.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-5
47.0%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Bray,Jaden) 5 yards from Tul11 to Tul16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+16
69.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:5038% → 57%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
62.2%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+12
62.2%
Davis Brin run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+37
61.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 37 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
57.1%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+27
55.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 27 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
55.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.2%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the OKSt 2Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
42.6%
Zack Long 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:4524% → 23%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.9%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
75.7%
Brin,Davis pass incomplete to Johnson,Josh QB hurried by Latu,Nathan and Jernigan,Jayden PENALTY OSU Holding (Black,Korie) 10 yards from Tul27 to Tul37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
74.7%
Brin,Davis pass complete to Stokes,Keylon for 4 yards to the Tul41 (Rodriguez,Malcolm), out of bounds PENALTY Tul Holding (Smith,Tyler) 10 yards from Tul37 to Tul27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+3
76.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+8
76.2%
Davis Brin run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
75.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Cannon MontgomerySimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
77.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5780% → 95%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
80.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
80.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+19
79.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
82.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+37
85.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 37 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
86.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
95.4%
Jaylen Warren 11 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:536% → 24%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
93.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Deneric Prince for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
93.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Deneric Prince for 9 yds to the OKLAST 46 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Harper) to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
91.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 9 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+18
91.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 18 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.5%
Anthony Watkins 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · -2 yds · 3:0592% → 92%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
91.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 13
50
+1
91.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaden Bray) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+4
91.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
93.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
93.7%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 13
OPP 39
-5
93.3%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OPP 44
-5
92.1%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:41
LD Brown 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Alex Hale Kick)
+32.4
TD · Q4 14:52
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q3 5:37
Deneric Prince 3 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)
-19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com