2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreWCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:01 · Brandon Dickerson punt for 40 yds , Marvin Mims returns for 20 yds to the Okla 48 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Drake Stoops) to the Okla 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:04: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eric Gray for 20 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:57: Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:58: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 4 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:11: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 10 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 12:45WCU 4th & 13 at WCU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 8:40WCU 4th & 3 at WCU 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 6:56OU 4th & 9 at WCU 39, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%32% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%−<0.136% to makePunt99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:01WCU 4th & 6 at WCU 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 3:16WCU 4th & 1 at WCU 34, down 17Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:02WCU 4th & 2 at WCU 33, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%average punt
- Q2 11:39WCU 4th & 13 at WCU 22, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 4:50WCU 4th & 4 at OU 43, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%48% to convertField goal0.1%−0.128% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:24WCU 4th & 8 at WCU 30, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 10:30WCU 4th & 25 at WCU 10, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 8:15OU 4th & 12 at WCU 28, up 52Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%60% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 6:19WCU 4th & 1 at WCU 46, down 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:53WCU 4th & 1 at WCU 34, down 62Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:07OU 4th & 2 at OU 23, up 69Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:10OU 4th & 1 at WCU 4, up 69Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%65% to convertField goal99.8%−0.293% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 10:28OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:04OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:57OU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:58OU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:11OU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:54OU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:52OU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:43OU Touchdown, up 61 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:42OU Touchdown, up 68 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:36OU Touchdown, up 75 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWCUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q1 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
99.8%
Rogan Wells pass complete to CJ Williams for 21 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-3
99.8%
Rogan Wells sacked by Isaiah Coe for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 49Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 19 yds to the WCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 4 yds to the WCaro 20Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Marvin Mims, broken up by Charles GadieSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+13
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 13 yds to the WCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 7 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Mydreon Vines) to the WCaro 20Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
99.7%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Kenny Benjamin for 12 yds Kenny Benjamin fumbled, recovered by WCaro Kenny BenjaminSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Paxton Robertson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4FG5 plays · 33 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q1 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-2
99.6%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Ivan Hogans for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q1 6:01
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+20
99.6%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 40 yds , Marvin Mims returns for 20 yds to the Okla 48 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Drake Stoops) to the Okla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD3 plays · 58 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
WCUDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 1:440% → 0%
OUDrive 8TD10 plays · 65 yds · 3:11100% → 100%
Q1 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-6
99.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the Okla 45 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wanya Morris) to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 14 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
99.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 14 yds to the WCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 2 yds to the WCaro 35Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+11
99.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the WCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 6 yds · 0:470% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD4 plays · 31 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q2 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+16
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 16 yds to the WCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 4 yds to the WCaro 9 for a 1ST down WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Trevor Childers) to the WCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 4 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.8%
Rogan Wells sacked by Reggie Grimes and Perrion Winfrey for a loss of 8 yards to the WCaro 17Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
99.8%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Calvin Jones for 5 yds to the WCaro 22Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+56
99.8%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 46 yds OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaden Davis) to the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD10 plays · 78 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q2 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Cody Jackson, broken up by Marlon AlexanderSimilar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+12
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Cody Jackson for 12 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brian Darby for 16 yds to the WCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 10 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 13DOWNS11 plays · 29 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Wells, Rogan pass incomplete to Vines, Mydreon, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Eaton, Joshua) 10 yards to the WESTCARLNA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTCARLNA.Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Terrence Horne for no gain to the WCaro 41Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Wells, Rogan pass complete to Jones, TJ for 6 yards to the WESTCARLNA47, PENALTY OKLAHOMA offside (Davis, Jaden) 5 yards to the WESTCARLNA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 5 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
Rogan Wells sacked by Perrion Winfrey for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 11
50
+2
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Clayton Bardall for 2 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Raphael Williams for 5 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Kenny Benjamin for 3 yds to the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD8 plays · 60 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Drake Stoops for 13 yds to the WCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+28
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brayden Willis for 28 yds to the WCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Cody Jackson for 7 yds to the WCaro 6Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 6 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Kenny Benjamin for 4 yds to the WCaro 32Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-2
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Kenny Benjamin for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 30Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
WCUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -15 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.9%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Dillon Luther) to the WCaro 22Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-12
99.9%
Rogan Wells sacked by Isaiah Thomas for a loss of 12 yards to the WCaro 10 Rogan Wells fumbled, recovered by WCaro Clayton Bardall , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19FG5 plays · 10 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q3 8:56
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-5
99.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Jayden Pauling and Chris Morgan for a loss of 5 yards to the WCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 20FUMBLE10 plays · 25 yds · 3:290% → 0%
Q3 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Kenny Benjamin for 8 yds to the WCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
100.0%
Rogan Wells pass complete to CJ Williams for 7 yds to the WCaro 46Similar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Rogan Wells pass complete to TJ Jones for 2 yds to the WCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-3
100.0%
Rogan Wells pass complete to Calvin Jones for a loss of 3 yards Calvin Jones fumbled, forced by Jordan Kelley, recovered by Okla Bryson Washington , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD3 plays · 50 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q3 3:51
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+15
99.9%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to West, Trevon, PENALTY WESTCARLNA pass interference (Gattison, Rod) 15 yards to the WESTCARLNA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:440% → 0%
OUDrive 23TD6 plays · 73 yds · 6:03100% → 100%
WCUDrive 24FUMBLE11 plays · 46 yds · 3:190% → 0%
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Branson Adams for 3 yds to the WCaro 43Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
100.0%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Daquan Patten for 6 yds to the WCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
100.0%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Raekwon Heath for 2 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+16
100.0%
Davis, Carlos pass incomplete to Patten, Daquan, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Criddell, Jeremiah) 16 yards to the OKLAHOMA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTCARLNA.Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+14
100.0%
Carlos Davis run for 14 yds to the Okla 15 Carlos Davis fumbled, forced by Ethan Downs, recovered by Okla Shane WhitterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
WCUDrive 26INT3 plays · 19 yds · 1:080% → 0%
OUDrive 27TD6 plays · 25 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
WCUDrive 28END OF GAME5 plays · 23 yds · 1:260% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:04
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eric Gray for 20 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 14:57
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 12:58
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 4 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+0.1