View as
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:01 · Gabe Brkic 55 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 7:58: Gabe Brkic 51 Yd Field Goal — OU win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:01: Mario Williams 6 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:31: Michael Pratt 4 Yd Run (Duece Watts Run for Two-Point Conversion) — TULN win probability +5.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:28: Cameron Carroll 5 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TULN win probability +6.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:18: Will Wallace 5 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Merek Glover Kick) — TULN win probability +25.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TULN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q2 14:53TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 12:34OU 4th & 2 at TULN 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:59OU 4th & 8 at TULN 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call93.4%89% to makePunt92.1%−1.3average punt
- Q2 7:58OU 4th & 10 at TULN 34, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.5%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%47% to makePunt93.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:04TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 29, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q2 1:06TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 48, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:30TULN 4th & 9 at OU 45, down 20Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%−<0.132% to convertField goal2.2%25% to makePunt2.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 11:56TULN 4th & 6 at OU 38, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%40% to convertField goal1.8%−0.138% to makePunt1.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:53TULN 4th & 13 at OU 23, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.319% to convertField goalTheir call1.9%70% to makePunt1.1%−0.8average punt
- Q3 7:15OU 4th & 1 at OU 46, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:34TULN 4th & 7 at OU 39, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%37% to convertField goal1.6%−0.136% to makePunt1.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:59TULN 4th & 1 at OU 7, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%70% to convertField goal1.1%−0.491% to makePunt0.0%−1.5average punt
- Q3 1:01OU 4th & 4 at TULN 38, up 15Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call96.1%−0.638% to makePunt96.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:38TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q4 5:03OU 4th & 12 at TULN 14, up 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.720% to convertField goalTheir call95.5%84% to makePunt92.4%−3.1average punt
- Q4 1:55TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 44, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.0%20% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.0%−2.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 11:15TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.2%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:59OU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:44TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.1%97% to makeGo for two6.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:38OU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:00OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:01OU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:31TULN Touchdown, down 17 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick3.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:28TULN Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:18TULN Touchdown, down 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call8.4%−0.397% to makeGo for two8.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1INT3 plays · -6 yds · 0:3197% → 97%
TULNDrive 2TD9 plays · 55 yds · 3:033% → 4%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
96.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 24 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
96.6%
Pratt, Michael pass complete to Wyatt, Shae for 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA21, PENALTY TULANE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+10
96.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 10 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
96.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 11 yds to the Okla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1096% → 95%
Q1 10:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+24
95.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 24 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 3 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+12
95.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 12 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
95.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 12 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+8
95.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 8 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+10
95.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brian Darby for 10 yds to the Tulan 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:095% → 6%
OUDrive 5TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0094% → 95%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
94.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 22 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
94.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 2 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+50
93.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 50 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:416% → 7%
OUDrive 7TD9 plays · 84 yds · 4:4794% → 94%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+28
93.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 28 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
93.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 2 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+4
93.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brian Darby for 4 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+40
92.9%
Kennedy Brooks run for 32 yds to the Tulan 16 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (Lance Robinson) to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
93.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 2 yds to the Tulan 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
93.7%
Michael Pratt run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 11 Michael Pratt fumbled, recovered by Okla Nik BonittoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Williams for 2 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.1%
Michael Pratt run for 9 yds to the Tulan 34 Michael Pratt fumbled, forced by Isaiah Thomas, recovered by Okla Clayton SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4694% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:485% → 5%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 11 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-5
95.2%
Michael Pratt sacked by Isaiah Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
95.2%
Ryan Wright punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD7 plays · 78 yds · 2:5895% → 98%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
95.4%
Mario Williams pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 10 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+10
95.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
50
+20
95.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 20 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14FUMBLE15 plays · 16 yds · 2:272% → 2%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 2 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
97.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 9 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
97.7%
Pratt, Michael rush for 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA49, PENALTY TULANE holding (Haynesworth, Sincere) 10 yards to the TULANE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+15
97.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+6
97.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 6 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 9
OPP 45
-14
97.7%
Michael Pratt sacked by Reggie Grimes for a loss of 14 yards to the Tulan 41 Michael Pratt fumbled, forced by Reggie Grimes, recovered by Okla Jalen Redmond , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15END OF HALF4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2298% → 99%
TULNDrive 16MISSED FG12 plays · 52 yds · 3:592% → 2%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for a loss of 4 yards Tyrick James fumbled, forced by Nik Bonitto, recovered by Tulan Will WallaceSimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+28
97.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 13 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaden Davis) to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+5
97.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Phat Watts for 5 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+18
98.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 18 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 3:3198% → 98%
Q3 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
98.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 2 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 2 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
98.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 7 yds to the Okla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD11 plays · 42 yds · 3:392% → 7%
OUDrive 19FG8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2497% → 98%
TULNDrive 20FUMBLE5 plays · 5 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q3 0:19
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+4
97.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Cameron Carroll for 4 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+4
97.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Cameron Carroll for 4 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Ryan Wright punt for 62 yds , Marvin Mims returns for no gain to the Okla 24 Marvin Mims fumbled, recovered by Okla Marvin Mims , return for 12 yds to the Okla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4198% → 98%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-11
98.0%
Spencer Rattler sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the Okla 13 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Okla 13Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 21
OWN 13
+12
97.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Michael Woods II for 12 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Spencer Rattler pass intercepted Macon Clark return for no gain to the Okla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22TD10 plays · 47 yds · 2:233% → 10%
Q4 13:39
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+13
97.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 13 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
97.2%
Pratt, Michael pass incomplete to Watts, Duece, PENALTY TULANE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+17
97.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 17 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+5
90.4%
Cameron Carroll 5 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23MISSED FG16 plays · 61 yds · 6:1995% → 96%
Q4 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
95.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 3 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
95.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 11 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
50
+12
95.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brian Darby for 12 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
95.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 11 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+15
96.2%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kiland Harrison) to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:385% → 32%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
95.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 12 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
94.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 13 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
94.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+31
95.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 31 yds to the Okla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1826% → 20%
Q4 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-3
77.4%
Michael Pratt sacked by Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2295% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:18
Will Wallace 5 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Merek Glover Kick)
-25.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+13.8
TD · Q4 11:28
Cameron Carroll 5 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-6.9