Try the model
MOST

Missouri State 16 at Oklahoma State 23

OKST
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Boone Pickens Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:52 · Grant Burkett punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScoring-chance index
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+47.7Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0Scoring-chance index+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:06: Jose Pizano 51 yd FG GOOD — MOST win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:51: Jose Pizano 30 yd FG GOOD — MOST win probability +1.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:15: Jose Pizano 33 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +1.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:05: Alex Hale 35 yd FG GOOD — MOST win probability +1.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:06: Tyrone Scott 8 Yd pass from Jason Shelley (Jose Pizano Kick) — MOST win probability +6.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MOST made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 12:52MOST 4th & 1 at MOST 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:56MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 41, down 6
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:06MOST 4th & 20 at OKST 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:50MOST 4th & 2 at MOST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:14OKST 4th & 3 at MOST 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:51MOST 4th & 13 at OKST 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:49OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:38MOST 4th & 9 at MOST 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:27MOST 4th & 10 at OKST 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:26OKST 4th & 18 at OKST 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:15MOST 4th & 16 at OKST 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−6.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:54OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:05OKST 4th & 17 at MOST 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−9.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:10MOST 4th & 1 at MOST 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:40OKST 4th & 11 at MOST 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−3.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:40OKST 4th & 11 at MOST 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−3.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:42MOST 4th & 8 at MOST 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:12OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 43, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−4.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:59MOST 4th & 14 at OKST 20, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 15.5 ptsWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%−15.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−21.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:34OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−3.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:09MOST 4th & 19 at OKST 35, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 12.4 ptsWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%−12.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−14.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:47OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:022% → 2%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
98.3%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Shelley,Jason) 5 yards from MSU22 to MSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+3
98.3%
Jason Shelley run for 3 yds to the MoSt 20Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+2
98.3%
Tobias Little run for 2 yds to the MoSt 22Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+9
98.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 9 yds to the MoSt 31Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Grant Burkett punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:0598% → 98%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to LD BrownSimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+18
98.1%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tay Martin for 18 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
98.1%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the MoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
98.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tay Martin for 16 yds to the MoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
98.2%
LD Brown run for 7 yds to the MoSt 20Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
98.2%
LD Brown run for 5 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+19
98.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tay Martin for 19 yds to the MoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.2%
Shane Illingworth run for 1 yd to the MoSt 5Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.9%
Tay Martin 5 Yd pass from Shane Illingworth (Alex Hale PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:422% → 3%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
97.8%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+10
97.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Gary Clinton for 10 yds to the MoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
97.9%
Tobias Little run for 2 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
97.9%
Jason Shelley run for 9 yds to the MoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
97.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Tobias Little for 5 yds to the MoSt 39Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
97.8%
Tobias Little run for 3 yds to the MoSt 42Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
97.8%
Kevon Latulas run for 1 yd to the MoSt 41Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
97.5%
Grant Burkett punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1298% → 97%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
97.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 3 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
97.5%
LD Brown run for no gain to the OKSt 11Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
97.5%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
97.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5FG
11 plays · 18 yds · 4:383% → 4%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
97.2%
Shelley,Jason rush for 0 yards to the MSU48 (Sterling,Tre; Harper,Devin) PENALTY OSU Offside (Sterling,Tre) 5 yards from MSU48 to OSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+1
97.2%
Jaden Johnson pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 1 yd to the OKSt 48Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+12
97.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 12 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+12
97.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 12 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.2%
Tobias Little run for no gain to the OKSt 24Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
97.2%
Jason Shelley sacked by Kamryn Farrar for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 15
OPP 29
0
97.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 15
OPP 29
-5
97.4%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU29 to OSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.2%
Tobias Little run for no gain to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
97.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to DVontae KeySimilar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+51
96.3%
Jose Pizano 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:2296% → 96%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
96.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 1 yd to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
96.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Brennan Presley for 2 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+22
96.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Brennan Presley for 22 yds to the MoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.5%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+28
96.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Rashod Owens for 28 yds to the MoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
96.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the MoSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
96.5%
Illingworth,Shane pass incomplete to Martin,Tay broken up by Joe,Lemondre PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Joe,Lemondre) 11 yard from MSU13 to MSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.5%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the MoSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.5%
LD Brown run for no gain to the MoSt 1Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
95.4%
Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:2996% → 96%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
95.8%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Bryson Green for 14 yds to the MoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.7%
LD Brown run for 11 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:075% → 5%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 3 yds to the MoSt 28Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 6 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
95.2%
Tobias Little run for 1 yd to the MoSt 33Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
94.8%
Grant Burkett punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:3695% → 94%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
94.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
94.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+36
94.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jaden Bray for 36 yds to the MoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.2%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
95.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the MoSt 39Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+3
95.1%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 3 yds to the MoSt 36Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
94.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 11FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:236% → 8%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.7%
Kevon Latulas run for 4 yds to the MoSt 40Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
93.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 8 yds to the MoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
93.4%
Kevon Latulas run for 4 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+6
93.3%
Kevon Latulas run for 6 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Gary ClintonSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+32
93.3%
Jason Shelley run for 22 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyren Irby) to the OKSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
93.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Damoriea Vick for 8 yds to the OKSt 2Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.0%
Tobias Little run for 1 yd to the OKSt 3Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
93.2%
Jason Shelley sacked by Devin Harper for a loss of 10 yards to the OKSt 13Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
92.2%
Jose Pizano 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:0392% → 93%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
92.2%
Braydon Johnson run for 13 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
92.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jaden Bray for 16 yds to the MoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
93.1%
PENALTY OSU Illegal Snap (Godlevske,Danny) 5 yards from MSU46 to OSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+13
92.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Bryson Green for 13 yds to the MoSt 38Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
93.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
92.9%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the MoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
92.9%
Shane Illingworth pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:488% → 8%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
92.0%
PENALTY MSU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from MSU08 to MSU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+7
92.0%
Tobias Little run for 7 yds to the MoSt 11Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+8
91.7%
Jason Shelley run for 8 yds to the MoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1192% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to LD Brown for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-8
91.5%
Shane Illingworth sacked by Kevin Ellis for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+22
91.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tay Martin for 22 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
92.1%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
91.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
91.4%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
90.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Naveon Mitchell at the MoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:119% → 10%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+30
90.6%
Kevon Latulas run for 30 yds to the MoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.5%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan MurraySimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
89.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 8 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-7
89.4%
Jason Shelley sacked by Mason Cobb for a loss of 7 yards to the MoSt 45Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
89.7%
Grant Burkett punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
89.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 3Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+7
89.4%
Dezmon Jackson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+27
89.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tay Martin for 27 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 17FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3013% → 13%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
86.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 8 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+4
85.9%
Tobias Little run for 4 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.1%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
86.1%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
86.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
87.5%
Jose Pizano 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0188% → 86%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
88.0%
LD Brown run for 4 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
87.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to LD Brown for no gain to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
85.6%
Tom Hutton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Montrae Braswell at the MoSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:1115% → 15%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
85.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Tobias Little for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
84.0%
Kevon Latulas run for 2 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+8
84.1%
Jason Shelley run for 8 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
84.0%
Myron Mason run for 2 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+13
84.1%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Isaac Smith for 13 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
83.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 19 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for no gain to the OKSt 6Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
79.9%
Mason,Myron rush for 6 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:31 PENALTY MSU Holding (Fitzgerald,Sean) 10 yards from OSU06 to OSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
81.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Damoriea VickSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
83.0%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
84.6%
Jose Pizano 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:1485% → 83%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.5%
LD Brown run for 2 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
84.7%
LD Brown run for 7 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-10
84.3%
Brown,LD rush for 8 yards gain to the MSU47 (Ellis,Kevin; Braswell,Montrae) PENALTY OSU Holding (Springfield,Jake) 10 yards from OSU45 to OSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-10
81.8%
Illingworth,Shane pass complete to Warren,Jaylen for 22 yards to the MSU43 (Williams,Jalen; Sanders,Zack) PENALTY OSU Holding (Jarrard,Austin) 10 yards from OSU35 to OSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+12
81.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 12 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
83.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21FG
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4987% → 83%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
87.3%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the MoSt 8Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
87.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-5
86.5%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game (Illingworth,Shane) 5 yards from MSU08 to MSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 12
OPP 13
-5
86.1%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game (Illingworth,Shane) 5 yards from MSU13 to MSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 17
OPP 18
0
84.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+35
82.8%
Alex Hale 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5518% → 19%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.3%
Jason Shelley run for 8 yds to the MoSt 33Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Jason Shelley run for no gain to the MoSt 33Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
81.7%
Tobias Little run for 1 yd to the MoSt 34Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
81.2%
Grant Burkett punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3083% → 81%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
82.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Brennan Presley for 33 yds to the MoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.2%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
85.0%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the MoSt 45Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
83.4%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
81.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
81.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5821% → 20%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.0%
Naveon Mitchell run for 2 yds to the MoSt 27Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
78.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Damoriea VickSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan MurraySimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
80.4%
Grant Burkett punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3082% → 80%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to LD BrownSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
81.7%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Etienne,Caleb) 5 yards from OSU34 to OSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+14
81.1%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Bryson Green for 14 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
83.0%
LD Brown run for no gain to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
80.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Titus Wall at the MoSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 4:0624% → 36%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
75.9%
Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the MoSt 21Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
75.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 3 yds to the MoSt 24Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+25
76.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Damoriea Vick for 25 yds to the MoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
71.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 21 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
69.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 7 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
68.8%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Myron MasonSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
70.7%
Myron Mason run for 4 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
68.8%
Jason Shelley run for 1 yd to the OKSt 18Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+8
70.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan Murray for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Brock Martin) to the OKSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
64.1%
Tyrone Scott 8 Yd pass from Jason Shelley (Jose Pizano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0736% → 22%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
64.1%
Myron Mason run for 1 yd to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-5
64.1%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Lane,Xavier) 5 yards from OSU15 to OSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 14
OPP 20
0
66.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Naveon MitchellSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 14
OPP 20
0
70.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 14
OPP 20
0
77.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2588% → 87%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
87.9%
LD Brown run for 5 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
89.2%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
87.9%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
87.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Titus Wall at the MoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 29DOWNS
13 plays · 25 yds · 1:2523% → 17%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Damoriea VickSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
78.2%
Jason Shelley run for 7 yds to the MoSt 37Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+5
80.1%
Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the MoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
79.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Murray for 14 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
75.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
76.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan MurraySimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+23
81.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 23 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.3%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
73.0%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-9
76.3%
Jason Shelley sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 19
OPP 35
-10
82.6%
Jason Shelley sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
95.4%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:06
Tyrone Scott 8 Yd pass from Jason Shelley (Jose Pizano Kick)
-6.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.6
FG · Q4 13:05
Alex Hale 35 yd FG GOOD
-1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com