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UNI

Northern Iowa 10 at Iowa State 16

ISU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadUNI aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreUNI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:44 · Nate Murphy punt for 36 yds, downed at the IowSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior+40.2Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score differential−1.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:25: Breece Hall run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +3.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:35: Matthew Cook 41 yd FG GOOD — UNI win probability +2.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 6:18: Connor Assalley 21 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +8.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:03: Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42 — ISU win probability +7.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:00: Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 8 yds to the NIowa 18 — UNI win probability +5.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UNI made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:51UNI 4th & 20 at UNI 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26UNI 4th & 13 at UNI 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:33ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06ISU 4th & 4 at UNI 18, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44UNI 4th & 12 at UNI 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:35UNI 4th & 7 at ISU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ISU 4th & 5 at UNI 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:26ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:40UNI 4th & 6 at UNI 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:06ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:36UNI 4th & 4 at ISU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:06ISU 4th & 12 at UNI 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:38UNI 4th & 10 at UNI 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:18ISU 4th & 4 at UNI 4, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−18.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:15UNI 4th & 2 at UNI 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.6%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:02ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:09UNI Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:25ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNIDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 2:043% → 4%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Will McElvain pass complete to Vance McShane for no gain to the NIowa 20Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
96.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for no gain to the NIowa 20Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
96.4%
Will McElvain sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 10 yards to the NIowa 10Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
96.3%
Nate Murphy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the NIowa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1696% → 96%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.3%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the NIowa 47Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-8
96.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Joe Scates for a loss of 8 yards Joe Scates fumbled, recovered by IowSt Jared RusSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 16
OWN 45
0
96.1%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
96.0%
Corey Dunn punt for 38 yds, downed at the NIowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:484% → 4%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
96.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 4 yds to the NIowa 21Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
95.9%
Dom Williams run for no gain to the NIowa 21Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-7
95.8%
Will McElvain sacked by O'Rien Vance for a loss of 7 yards to the NIowa 14Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
95.7%
Nate Murphy punt for 52 yds, downed at the IowSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4396% → 95%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for no gain to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
95.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 4 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+1
95.3%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 39 IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+9
95.1%
Corey Dunn punt for 57 yds , Quan Hampton returns for 9 yds to the NIowa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 5TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:185% → 7%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
95.1%
McElvain, Will pass complete to McShane, Deion for 22 yards to the NORTHIOWA35, PENALTY NORTHIOWA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NORTHIOWA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+1
95.1%
Will McElvain run for 1 yd to the NIowa 9Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+3
94.9%
Tyler Hoosman run for 3 yds to the NIowa 12Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+37
94.8%
Will McElvain pass complete to Deion McShane for 37 yds to the NIowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
94.4%
Dom Williams run for 4 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
94.3%
McElvain, Will pass complete to Scott, Jayden for 7 yards to the IOWAST40, PENALTY NORTHIOWA illegal touching 5 yards to the NORTHIOWA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+52
93.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 52 yds for a TD (Matthew Cook KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:5793% → 93%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.3%
Breece Hall run for 12 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
93.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 39 yds to the NIowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
93.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Easton Dean) to the NIowa 29Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+8
93.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 8 yds to the NIowa 21Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
93.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 3 yds to the NIowa 18Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
92.6%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the NIowa 18Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
93.0%
Connor Assalley 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:147% → 7%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
92.8%
Quan Hampton run for a loss of 4 yards to the NIowa 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
92.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 2 yds to the NIowa 23Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
92.6%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Isaiah WestonSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
92.6%
Nate Murphy punt for 36 yds, downed at the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 59 yds · 7:0993% → 92%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
92.6%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
92.4%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 1
50
+4
92.2%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the NIowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
92.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 5 yds to the NIowa 41Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
91.9%
Jirehl Brock run for 6 yds to the NIowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
91.8%
Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the NIowa 32Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+10
91.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 10 yds to the NIowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
91.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
91.2%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the NIowa 16Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+4
90.5%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the NIowa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
90.6%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the NIowa 10Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+5
90.0%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the NIowa 5Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+3
89.1%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Scates, Joe, PENALTY NORTHIOWA pass interference (Sapp III, Benny) 3 yards to the NORTHIOWA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.2%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 9FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:399% → 14%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.1%
Dom Williams run for 9 yds to the NIowa 34Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
90.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 17 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
89.7%
Dom Williams run for 11 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
89.5%
Will McElvain run for 4 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
88.9%
Dom Williams run for 4 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
88.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
88.3%
Will McElvain run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+5
88.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Deion McShane for 5 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
88.2%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Dom WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
86.1%
Matthew Cook 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10END OF HALF
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:1888% → 88%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 11 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
88.1%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
88.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
88.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
88.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 11 yds to the NIowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
88.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 12 yds to the NIowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
88.9%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the NIowa 24Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
88.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the NIowa 21Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-2
88.0%
Brock Purdy sacked by Jared Brinkman and Devin Rice for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
88.3%
Andrew Mevis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2988% → 87%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
88.1%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 10Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+18
88.2%
Brock Purdy run for 18 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
88.2%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
87.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
87.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
86.8%
Corey Dunn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quan Hampton at the NIowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4013% → 14%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
86.6%
Tyler Hoosman run for 1 yd to the NIowa 31Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
86.5%
Will McElvain run for 8 yds to the NIowa 39Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
85.0%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
84.7%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, False Start (Justin Peine) to the NIowa 36Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
85.8%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Logan WolfSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
85.9%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Quan HamptonSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+9
86.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Logan Wolf for 9 yds to the NIowa 45Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
85.6%
Nate Murphy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:2486% → 85%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
86.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Joe Scates for 17 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.0%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 7 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
85.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 2 yds Jaylin Noel fumbled, recovered by IowStSimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
85.1%
Corey Dunn punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 14INT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:2416% → 20%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
83.6%
Dom Williams run for 1 yd to the NIowa 29Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
83.3%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 7 yds to the NIowa 36Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
82.4%
Dom Williams run for 5 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
81.2%
Dom Williams run for 4 yds to the NIowa 45Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
80.0%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Tyler HoosmanSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
80.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Sam Schnee for 7 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
79.7%
Quan Hampton run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 12
50
+8
80.2%
Will McElvain pass complete to Deion McShane for 8 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
79.5%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Isaiah WestonSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
80.5%
Will McElvain pass intercepted Isheem Young return for no gain to the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:1982% → 81%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
81.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+34
81.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 34 yds to the NIowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-11
83.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the NIowa 48Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 21
OPP 48
-5
82.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 26
OWN 47
0
81.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for no gain to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 26
OWN 47
+5
81.0%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the NIowa 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 48
+9
80.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 9 yds to the NIowa 39Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
81.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2220% → 19%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
80.5%
Dom Williams run for 2 yds to the NIowa 22Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
80.3%
Dom Williams run for 2 yds to the NIowa 24Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+11
80.9%
Will McElvain pass complete to Isaiah Weston for 11 yds to the NIowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Dom Williams run for no gain to the NIowa 35Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Tyler Hoosman NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
80.0%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Dom WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Nate Murphy punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 5:1782% → 91%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
82.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jared Rus for 19 yds to the NIowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
83.4%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the NIowa 40Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
83.6%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the NIowa 35Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+8
83.0%
Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the NIowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
83.9%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the NIowa 27Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+19
83.5%
Brock Purdy run for 19 yds to the NIowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
83.3%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the NIowa 3Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.8%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the NIowa 2Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
82.1%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 4Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
91.4%
Connor Assalley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 18INT
9 plays · 10 yds · 4:0014% → 12%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.5%
Dom Williams run for 1 yd to the NIowa 26Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
87.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Tyler Hoosman for 3 yds to the NIowa 29Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
87.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Dom Williams for 4 yds to the NIowa 33Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
87.0%
Tyler Hoosman run for 4 yds to the NIowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
85.8%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jared Penning) to the NIowa 27Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+1
87.4%
Will McElvain run for 1 yd to the NIowa 28Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+7
87.8%
Will McElvain pass complete to Deion McShane for 7 yds to the NIowa 35Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-15
88.0%
Will McElvain pass intercepted Datrone Young return for 15 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0195% → 96%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.3%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
95.8%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
96.2%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
95.9%
Corey Dunn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quan Hampton at the NIowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:599% → 10%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
90.8%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 8 yds to the NIowa 18Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 18
0
90.6%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Deion McShaneSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+9
91.2%
Will McElvain pass complete to Quan Hampton for 9 yds to the NIowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.4%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Isaiah WestonSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
90.8%
Will McElvain pass complete to Deion McShane for 8 yds to the NIowa 35Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+7
90.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Sam Schnee for 7 yds to the NIowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.7%
Will McElvain pass incomplete to Quan HamptonSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+25
90.3%
Will McElvain pass complete to Sam Schnee for 25 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.7
FG · Q4 6:18
Connor Assalley 21 yd FG GOOD
+8.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:03
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com