Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 27 at New Mexico State 44

NMSU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTimeout advantage
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:41: Ellis Merriweather run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +4.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:32: Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Rico Arnold for 73 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +5.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:40: Juwaun Price run for 26 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:01: Ellis Merriweather run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +8.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:10: Ethan Albertson 50 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:45MASS 4th & 22 at MASS 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24NMSU 4th & 21 at NMSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:24MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:55MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40NMSU 4th & 2 at MASS 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:36NMSU 4th & 4 at MASS 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:38MASS 4th & 2 at NMSU 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:45MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:02MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:07NMSU 4th & 7 at MASS 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:10NMSU 4th & 12 at MASS 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:17MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:04MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 24, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:43MASS 4th & 1 at NMSU 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:06NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:40NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:49MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:38NMSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:41MASS Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:11NMSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:32MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:40NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:01MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:04NMSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5493% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
92.8%
Johnson,Jonah rush for 5 yards gain to the NMS30, End Of Play PENALTY NMS Holding (Townsend,Stephawn) 10 yards from NMS25 to NMS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+16
92.8%
Juwaun Price run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
92.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
92.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 16 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+40
92.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 40 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
92.7%
Juwaun Price run for 7 yds to the UMass 5Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
92.5%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:218% → 8%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
92.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 21Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-8
92.4%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Trevor Brohard for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 13Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+13
92.1%
George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 13 yds to the UMass 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:2192% → 92%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.2%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Uchenna Ezewike for 0 yards to the UMass 47Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
92.2%
Jonah Johnson run for 3 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-5
92.1%
PENALTY NMS Delay Of Game (Johnson,Jonah) 5 yards from MAS44 to MAS49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-9
92.0%
Jonah Johnson sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
91.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:298% → 9%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
91.6%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 4 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
91.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
91.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 5 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
91.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
91.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Rico ArnoldSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+1
90.7%
George Georgopoulos punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 5:1591% → 92%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
90.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+47
90.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 47 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
91.3%
Juwaun Price run for 13 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
91.3%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
90.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-5
90.6%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Johnson,Eli) 5 yards from MAS32 to MAS37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+20
90.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 20 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
90.8%
Alex Escobar run for 5 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
90.8%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
90.6%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the UMass 9Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+9
92.2%
Juwaun Price run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:518% → 10%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.7%
Ellis Merriweather run for 8 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
91.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+34
91.5%
Garrett Dzuro run for 34 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
90.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Carter Scudo for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+30
89.0%
Jared Chisari run for 30 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson PAT MISSED)Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
89.7%
PENALTY MAS Offside (Powell,Te'Rai) 5 yards from MAS35 to MAS30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:5889% → 92%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
89.4%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Powers,Justice PENALTY MAS Pass Interference (Wallace,Josh) 15 yards from NMS17 to NMS32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
89.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 11 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.1%
Alex Escobar run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
90.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to PJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+9
89.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 9 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
90.2%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
90.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+6
89.8%
Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+16
89.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 16 yds to the UMass 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:578% → 14%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.7%
PENALTY NMS Offside (Bishop,Garrett) 5 yards from MAS25 to MAS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
91.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Rico Arnold for 4 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+24
91.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb Mills) to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
90.9%
Garrett Dzuro run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-5
90.8%
PENALTY MAS False Start (Hill,Melvin) 5 yards from NMS36 to NMS41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
91.0%
Josiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
90.8%
Josiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+4
91.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
90.7%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Isaac RossSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
90.7%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 10 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
86.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3089% → 92%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
89.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 34 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
90.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 17 yds to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
92.4%
Juwaun Price run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 0:269% → 8%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.4%
PENALTY MAS False Start (Fagundes,Helber) 5 yards from MAS25 to MAS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
91.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+8
91.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 8 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
George Georgopoulos punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:4594% → 93%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
93.9%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+10
93.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
93.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
93.0%
Juwaun Price run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:288% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.5%
Garrett Dzuro run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
92.2%
PENALTY MAS False Start (Mottinger,Ethan) 5 yards from MAS29 to MAS24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
92.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
87.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Rico Arnold for 73 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:4687% → 94%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
87.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+4
87.5%
Alex Escobar run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
87.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+29
88.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 29 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
88.7%
Price,Juwaun rush for 2 yards gain to the MAS39 (Mathurin,Cletus) PENALTY NMS Holding (Doxtater,Sage) 10 yards from MAS41 to NMS49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 20
OWN 49
-10
88.0%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Dixon,Lawrence PENALTY NMS Holding (Doxtater,Sage) 10 yards from NMS49 to NMS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 30
OWN 39
+16
87.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 16 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+19
88.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 19 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
93.7%
Juwaun Price run for 26 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:388% → 8%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Eric CollinsSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.6%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Eric Collins for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
92.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:5594% → 94%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
93.5%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
93.5%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+13
93.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 13 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
93.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
50
+3
93.9%
Alex Escobar run for 3 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
93.4%
Jonah Johnson run for 6 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
93.1%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-5
93.6%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Price,Juwaun) 5 yards from MAS42 to MAS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
93.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 2:067% → 15%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
93.0%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 11Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+6
92.8%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
92.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
92.7%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Isaac RossSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+79
84.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:5187% → 92%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.7%
Juwaun Price run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
87.4%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
87.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 14 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
89.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 5 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
89.6%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UMass 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+14
88.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 14 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.9%
Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
89.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 4 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+1
89.1%
Alex Escobar run for 1 yd to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 27
-5
88.0%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Mursalat,Isaiah) 5 yards from MAS27 to MAS32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
92.2%
Ethan Albertson 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5311% → 9%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jared Chisari for 7 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+3
89.2%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 3 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
89.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Onuma DiekeSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
91.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 3:1395% → 99%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
94.5%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+46
94.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 31 yds to the NEWMEXST 49 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Te'Rai Powell) to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
95.1%
Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
94.8%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the UMass 28Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+16
94.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 16 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
95.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 7 yds to the UMass 5Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20DOWNS
18 plays · 65 yds · 5:213% → 3%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.1%
Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the UMass 24Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
97.2%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Isaac RossSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
97.2%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+13
97.3%
Garrett Dzuro run for 13 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
96.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 8 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
96.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
96.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Avien Peah) to the UMass 33Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 25
OWN 33
+9
97.2%
Garrett Dzuro run for 9 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+21
97.2%
Garrett Dzuro run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.7%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Rico ArnoldSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+18
96.7%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 18 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
96.1%
Garrett Dzuro run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+7
96.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+4
96.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
97.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
99.5%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
99.5%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+6
99.5%
Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:01
Ellis Merriweather run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)
-8
TD · Q3 13:32
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Rico Arnold for 73 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)
-5
TD · Q3 9:40
Juwaun Price run for 26 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com