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TOL

Toledo 45 at Massachusetts 7

MASS
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:54 · Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, downed at the UMass 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior−49.2Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:38: Dequan Finn run for 34 yds for a TD (Dyontae Johnson KICK) (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:17: Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +0.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:16: Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:25: Bryant Koback run for 18 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:49: Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 7 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 4 at MASS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:17MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:54TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:59MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:42TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:45MASS 4th & 24 at MASS 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:17TOL 4th & 5 at MASS 11, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:17MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:54TOL 4th & 4 at MASS 21, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 34, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:57TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 18, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:56MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 26, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:20TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 22, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:58MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 32, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:34TOL 4th & 10 at MASS 34, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:27MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 28, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:38TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:16TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:25TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:49TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:56TOL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:54TOL Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:31MASS Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.2%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
1.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+21
1.2%
Bryant Koback run for 21 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
1.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
1.2%
Carter Bradley run for 1 yd to the UMass 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
1.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Bryce Watts TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Samuel Womack) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
1.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
1.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for no gain to the UMass 39Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
1.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for no gain to the UMass 39Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
1.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside (Jonathan Jones) to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-1
1.5%
Brady Olson pass complete to Onuma Dieke for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 43Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
1.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 56 yds, downed at the Toled 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
1.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+15
1.8%
Bradley, Carter pass incomplete to McKinley-Lewis,, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Boykin,Noah) 15 yards to the TOLEDO18, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
1.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+7
1.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 7 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
1.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
1.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, downed at the UMass 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
2.2%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 4 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
2.3%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-6
2.3%
Brady Olson sacked by Jonathan Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 34 Brady Olson fumbled, recovered by Toled Desjuan Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
2.1%
Dequan Finn run for 34 yds for a TD (Dyontae Johnson KICK) (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:392% → 2%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
2.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 5
OWN 19
0
2.2%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+1
2.2%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 20Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
2.3%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+4
2.3%
George Georgopoulos punt for 52 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
2.3%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
2.3%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-5
2.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (DeMeer Blankumsee) to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+6
2.4%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Toled 34 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Samuel Womack) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+33
2.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 44 , Eric Collins returns for 33 yds to the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
2.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-9
2.8%
Brady Olson run for a loss of 9 yards to the UMass 41 Brady Olson fumbled, recovered by UMass Kay'Ron AdamsSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 25
OWN 41
-5
2.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Helber Fagundes) to the UMass 36Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 30
OWN 36
+6
2.6%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 6 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 24
OWN 42
+14
2.6%
George Georgopoulos punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 26 , Adam Beale returns for 14 yds to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:4797% → 96%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
3.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+8
3.1%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+11
3.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
2.9%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+15
3.1%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete, PENALTY UMASS holding (Powell,Te'Rai) 15 yards to the UMASS49, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.9%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+20
2.9%
Bryant Koback run for 20 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
2.9%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+15
2.9%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete to Mitchell, Bryce, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Watts,Bryce) 15 yards to the UMASS16, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
2.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Desjuan Johnson) to the UMass 21Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+4
2.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
2.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+6
2.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the UMass 11Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
3.6%
Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
3.6%
Brady Olson pass complete to Onuma Dieke for 10 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.6%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Onuma Dieke, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
3.6%
Brady Olson pass complete to Tray Pettway for 2 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
3.6%
Brady Olson run for 7 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-2
3.7%
Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:0296% → 96%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
3.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
3.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by Billy Wooden and Gerrell Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+8
3.7%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-5
3.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+9
3.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
4.4%
Thomas Cluckey 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12INT
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
4.6%
Brady Olson pass complete to Kay'Ron Adams for 21 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-41
4.9%
Brady Olson pass intercepted Nate Bauer return for 41 yds to the UMass 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.6%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:163% → 3%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
3.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
3.5%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Rico ArnoldSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
3.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2297% → 99%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desjuan Johnson, broken up by Bryce WattsSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
2.9%
Carter Bradley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+30
3.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 30 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
2.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamal Turner for 28 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
1.3%
Bryant Koback run for 18 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.1%
Garrett Dzuro run for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-35
2.1%
Garrett Dzuro pass intercepted for a 1ST down Dyontae Johnson return for 27 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (8 Yards) to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 7 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.6%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
0.6%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 6 yds to the UMass 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 3 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
0.8%
Brady Olson pass complete to Tray Pettway for 12 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.8%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Tray PettwaySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
0.8%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Kay'Ron AdamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-5
0.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Ethan Mottinger) to the UMass 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-1
0.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
0.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 59 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
0.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
0.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 9 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+5
0.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
0.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-1
0.8%
Carter Bradley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
0.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
0.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 41 yds , Eric Collins returns for no gain to the UMass 37 Eric Collins fumbled, recovered by Toled Samuel WomackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3299% → 100%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
0.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Adam BealeSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+21
0.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 21 yds to the UMass 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
0.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Adam Beale for 4 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.4%
Brady Olson run for no gain to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
0.4%
Brady Olson pass incomplete, broken up by Darius AlexanderSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
0.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 54 yds , Adam Beale returns for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:20
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
0.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 58 yds, downed at the UMass 20Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
0.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-10
0.4%
Kelly, Micah rush for no gain to the TOLEDO35 (Logan,Nahji), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (Sciury, Vinny) 10 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+3
0.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-6
0.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
0.3%
Brady Olson pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 10 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.3%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Tray Pettway, broken up by Quinyon MitchellSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
0.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
0.3%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Eric CollinsSimilar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
0.3%
George Georgopoulos punt for 66 yds, downed at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
14 plays · 98 yds · 6:37100% → 100%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
0.5%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+5
0.4%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
0.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
0.3%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+6
0.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Micah Kelly for 6 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
0.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
0.3%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+9
0.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
0.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Isaiah Winstead) to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
0.3%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+55
0.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 55 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
0.2%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
0.2%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
0.2%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:230% → 0%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Rico ArnoldSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+39
0.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to Rico Arnold for 39 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
0.2%
Brady Olson pass complete to Jacob Orlando for 11 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.2%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.2%
Brady Olson pass incomplete to Rico ArnoldSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
0.2%
Olson,Brady pass incomplete to Attafah,Delvin, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Clark, Justin) 7 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to Taylor Edwards for 2 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
0.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
0.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+20
0.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 20 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
0.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
0.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the UMass 29Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 5
OPP 29
-5
0.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
0.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.1%
Jared Chisari run for 5 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Jared Chisari run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
0.1%
Zamar Wise pass complete to Rico Arnold for 5 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
0.1%
Zamar Wise run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Zamar Wise pass complete to Rico Arnold for no gain to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+1
0.1%
Zamar Wise run for 1 yd to the UMass 28Similar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
0.1%
George Georgopoulos punt for 48 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
0.2%
Jordan Lowe run for 3 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
0.2%
Jordan Lowe run for 6 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:16
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q2 1:25
Bryant Koback run for 18 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-1.4
TD · Q2 0:49
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 7 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com