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LIB

Liberty 28 at UL Monroe 31

ULM
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:43 · Devyn McCormick punt for 52 yds, downed at the Liber 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−46.1Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:37: Andrew Henry run for 40 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +22.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:22: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 14 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK), (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +29.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:42: Shedro Louis run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +19.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:49: Malik Willis run for 53 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +30.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:44: Calum Sutherland 53 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +32.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 7:34LIB 4th & 10 at ULM 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:08ULM 4th & 5 at LIB 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:11LIB 4th & 1 at ULM 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:43ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:38LIB 4th & 1 at ULM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:11ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:49ULM 4th & 10 at LIB 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:46LIB 4th & 6 at LIB 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:41LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−5.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:14ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−4.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:49LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:15LIB 4th & 15 at ULM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−4.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−4.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:44ULM 4th & 6 at LIB 36, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%−2.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−7.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 5:11LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:16LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:09ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:12ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:37ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:22ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:42LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:49LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 48 yds · 7:1997% → 96%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
2.6%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-1
2.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
2.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 4 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
2.6%
Joshua Mack run for 10 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
2.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 3 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
2.6%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
2.6%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
2.6%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
2.6%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
2.6%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
2.6%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
2.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Sir'Darrius Ellis for 0 yards to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 19
OPP 41
+9
2.6%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
4.1%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2MISSED FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 4:264% → 6%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
4.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
4.2%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Rashaad Harding for 0 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+17
4.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
50
+11
4.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 11 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
4.3%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
4.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+8
4.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
4.3%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
5.3%
Andrew Henry run for 7 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
5.2%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the Liber 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
5.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
5.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
5.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 5
OPP 10
0
5.5%
Calum Sutherland 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , Skyler Thomas return for no gain to the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5795% → 94%
Q1 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
5.0%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the LaMon 2Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
5.0%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the LaMon 2Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
5.1%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.8%
Shedro Louis run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:286% → 7%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
6.1%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+37
6.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 37 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
6.4%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
6.9%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Elijah James and Ralfs Rusins for 0 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
6.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
6.6%
Devyn McCormick punt for 52 yds, downed at the Liber 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5INT
17 plays · 74 yds · 7:0593% → 92%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
6.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 13 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
6.5%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
6.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 12 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
6.4%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-10
6.3%
LIBERTY Penalty, Illegal Block (CJ Daniels) to the Liber 35Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
6.5%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+19
6.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 19 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
6.1%
T.J. Green run for 4 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
7.6%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
7.7%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
8.1%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.5%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
7.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 6 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-20
7.5%
WILLIS, Malik pass to the left complete for 20 yards to DANIELS, CJ caught at the ULM15 and advanced to the ULM15 (NEWTON, Josh), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY ULM Personal Foul on NEWTON, Josh LIB Holding on SCHLITTLER, Brendan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+11
7.7%
Malik Willis run for 11 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
8.3%
Malik Willis pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2910% → 11%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
10.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
10.7%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:5892% → 93%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
8.5%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
8.5%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+9
8.8%
T.J. Green run for 9 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.8%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:228% → 9%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.6%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Storey Jackson and Rashaad Harding for 0 yards to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
7.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
7.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 11 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
7.5%
Abraham Alce run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
7.8%
Isaiah Phillips run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+21
8.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 21 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
8.5%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Rashaad Harding for 0 yards to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 13
OPP 43
0
8.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+3
9.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
8.8%
Devyn McCormick punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 1:3392% → 96%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
8.2%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
8.3%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
7.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 20 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
7.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 7 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
6.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 6 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
7.2%
Malik Willis run for 25 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
6.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 6 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
4.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:046% → 6%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
5.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Henry Chibueze) to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
6.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:466% → 13%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
6.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+12
6.0%
Malik Jackson run for 12 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
6.5%
Andrew Henry run for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
6.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 3 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
6.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 15 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
6.8%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
6.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+15
6.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 15 yds to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
6.8%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
13.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 12 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4590% → 89%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
10.5%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
10.9%
Malik Willis pass intercepted return for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.4%
Abraham Alce run for 1 yd for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1981% → 78%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
19.0%
T.J. Green run for no gain to the Liber 16Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
19.4%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
19.8%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+3
22.2%
Max Morgan punt for 51 yds , Boogie Knight returns for 3 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0923% → 47%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
22.8%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+16
22.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 16 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
24.9%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
23.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 6
50
+10
24.6%
ROGERS, Chandler pass up the middle incomplete intended for DERRICK, Will thrown to the LIB40. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on THOMAS, Skyler enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the LIB40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
47.0%
Andrew Henry run for 40 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5162% → 54%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
38.3%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
38.2%
Malik Willis run for no gain to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
39.7%
Malik Willis sacked by Ja'Cquez Williams for 0 yards to the Liber 16Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
45.8%
Max Morgan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1950% → 81%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
49.5%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
47.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
47.4%
ROGERS, Chandler pass to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Zach thrown to the LIB25. PENALTY LIB Roughing the Passer on CLARK, TreShaun enforced 15 yards from the ULM40 to the LIB45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
51.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+10
51.0%
Andrew Henry run for 10 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
51.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
51.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
51.5%
Isaiah Phillips run for 2 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
81.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 14 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK), (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4030% → 48%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
70.5%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
69.5%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+13
69.6%
Malik Willis run for 13 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
74.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 12 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.4%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+12
71.7%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
71.6%
Shedro Louis run for 10 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.5%
Shedro Louis run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2867% → 66%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.3%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Elijah James and Tre'Shaun Clark for 0 yards to the LaMon 14Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+10
65.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 10 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+46
65.7%
Devyn McCormick punt for 46 yds LIBERTY Penalty, Running Into the kicker on GURIDY, Sam ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2538% → 32%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
62.2%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
61.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 7 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
60.8%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
59.3%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
59.9%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
67.8%
Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21Uncategorized
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2074% → 74%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
74.1%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
74.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
73.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+15
74.0%
MCCORMICK, Devyn punt 37 yards to the LIB36, STUBBS, DJ return 20 yards to the ULM44, out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Personal Foul on DARKO, Daniel enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the ULM45 to the LIB40. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:4033% → 65%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
67.2%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
65.3%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+53
34.9%
Malik Willis run for 53 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:1944% → 46%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 5
OWN 10
+3
44.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+5
44.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 5 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
44.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
44.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
43.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 5 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
42.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+11
46.0%
Devyn McCormick punt for 51 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 11 yds to the Liber 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1164% → 56%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
35.6%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
35.0%
T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 2
50
+10
34.7%
Malik Willis run for 10 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Zack Woodard for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 20
50
0
37.4%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 20
50
+5
38.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
44.3%
Max Morgan punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:3148% → 87%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
48.2%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
49.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+15
47.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WASHINGTON, Aakil enforced (Aakil Washington) to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
56.8%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
57.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Elijah James and Aakil Washington for 0 yards to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+12
54.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 12 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+53
87.2%
Calum Sutherland 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26INT
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3424% → 19%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
75.9%
Malik Willis sacked by Zack Woodard and Caleb Thomas for 0 yards to the Liber 27Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 16
OWN 27
0
80.6%
Malik Willis pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:44
Calum Sutherland 53 yd FG GOOD
+32.9
TD · Q4 7:49
Malik Willis run for 53 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)
-30.4
TD · Q3 1:22
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 14 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK), (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+29.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com