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LIB

Liberty 21 at Troy 13

TROY
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:55 · Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 35 yds to the Liber 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense−31.9Pregame prior−0.7Score differential−17.7Garbage-time factor−13.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:40: B.J. Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +4.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:29: Taylor Powell pass incomplete — LIB win probability +7.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:58: LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Trevor Hobbs) to the Troy 44 — LIB win probability +8.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:22: Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +14.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:22: Taylor Powell pass complete to AJ Lewis for 5 yds to the Troy 30 — TROY win probability +4.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 0:09TROY 4th & 19 at LIB 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:39TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:04LIB 4th & 14 at TROY 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:37TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:10LIB 4th & 20 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29LIB 4th & 2 at TROY 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:40LIB 4th & 20 at LIB 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:49LIB 4th & 20 at TROY 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−4.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:06TROY 4th & 9 at LIB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:38TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:38LIB 4th & 3 at TROY 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−1.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:55LIB 4th & 8 at TROY 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:55TROY 4th & 3 at LIB 36, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.5
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:14TROY 4th & 11 at LIB 11, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:40TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:29LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:22LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:14TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2039% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
38.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
38.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
38.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Reggie Todd for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
38.9%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
38.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
38.9%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
38.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 18 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
38.9%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
38.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+15
38.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 15 yds to the Liber 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.5%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 5:1157% → 59%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
42.6%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
42.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
42.4%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+10
42.5%
Malik Willis run for 10 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
42.2%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
50
+11
42.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 11 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
42.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+32
40.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 32 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 4:2942% → 43%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
43.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.1%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
42.8%
VIDAL, Kimani rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the TRY43 (PIERRE, Aaron;SCRUGGS, Javon). PENALTY LIB Offsides on WASHINGTON, Aakil enforced 5 yards from the TRY41 to the TRY46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
43.4%
Taylor Powell sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark and Elijah James for 0 yards to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+19
42.3%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 19 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
43.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
43.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
43.5%
Taylor Powell sacked by Kendy Charles for 0 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 14
OPP 44
-5
41.9%
TROY Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Liber 49Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
43.3%
punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
43.1%
MACK, Joshua rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the LIB24 (MARTIAL, Carlton;SHOWERS, Antonio). PENALTY LIB Holding on SCHLITTLER, Brendan enforced 10 yards from the LIB20 to the LIB10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5036% → 35%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
36.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
35.2%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:3566% → 66%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
34.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 2 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+31
34.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Trevor Hobbs for 31 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
32.8%
T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
32.5%
Malik Willis sacked by Richard Jibunor and Jayden McDonald for 0 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
34.5%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
34.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2735% → 33%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
35.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+6
35.1%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
33.7%
Taylor Powell sacked by Henry Chibueze for 0 yards to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
33.0%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 30 yds, downed at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:2770% → 67%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
29.7%
Malik Willis sacked by Will Choloh for 0 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 13
OPP 43
0
30.5%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
31.4%
Malik Willis sacked by Will Choloh for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 20
50
0
32.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9DOWNS TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:3065% → 66%
Q2 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
35.1%
T.J. Green run for 10 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
35.1%
Shedro Louis run for 8 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+2
35.1%
T.J. Green run for 2 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
35.1%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
35.1%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
35.5%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 8:2067% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
32.7%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-5
33.0%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Johnny Huntley) to the Liber 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+3
33.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 3 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+12
33.7%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
32.5%
Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
31.2%
Shedro Louis run for 4 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
31.3%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
30.5%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
30.8%
Malik Willis run for 15 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
30.0%
T.J. Green run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+1
31.0%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
32.0%
Malik Willis sacked by Will Choloh and Jayden McDonald for 0 yards to the Liber 47Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
30.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 yds , Tez Johnson returns for no gain to the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11INT
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:4232% → 27%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
32.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Storey Jackson) to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
34.9%
Taylor Powell pass intercepted return for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
26.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Trevor Hobbs) to the Troy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0973% → 70%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 15
OPP 44
-5
27.0%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 20
OPP 49
0
27.8%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 20
OPP 49
0
28.9%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
29.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 46 yds, downed at the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4331% → 31%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
31.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+15
31.4%
POWELL, Taylor pass to the left incomplete intended for TODD, Reggie thrown to the TRY32. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on MEGGINSON, Chris enforced 15 yards from the TRY5 to the TRY20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
31.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
32.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 21 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
36.2%
POWELL, Taylor pass to the right complete for 6 yards to WHITTEMORE, Luke caught at the LIB43 and advanced to the LIB43, out of bounds. PENALTY TRY Holding on VIDAL, Kimani enforced 10 yards from the LIB49 to the TRY41 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+3
32.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
34.6%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+8
32.8%
Taylor Powell run for 8 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
31.3%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:4472% → 92%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
28.0%
Malik Willis run for 14 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
27.6%
WILLIS, Malik pass to the left incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the LIB50. PENALTY TRY Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Zion enforced 15 yards from the LIB24 to the LIB39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
25.3%
T.J. Green run for 4 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
24.3%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+20
24.5%
Malik Willis run for 20 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
22.8%
Malik Willis sacked by TJ Harris and Luis Medina for 0 yards to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+15
23.8%
T.J. Green run for 15 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
22.6%
TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (TJ Harris) to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.1%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4413% → 10%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.0%
Taylor Powell pass complete to AJ Lewis for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
13.5%
Taylor Powell sacked by Storey Jackson and Rashaad Harding for 0 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
12.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to B.J. Smith for 8 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
9.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 6:4392% → 96%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
7.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 27 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
7.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
7.0%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
6.0%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+5
6.8%
Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
5.8%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
5.8%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+1
6.0%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
4.0%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
4.1%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+4
3.6%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 8
OPP 15
0
4.0%
Alex Barbir 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , Elijah Culp return for no gain to the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:414% → 9%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
4.2%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Reggie Todd for 21 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
4.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
4.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+2
4.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 2 yds fumbled, recovered by Troy Dylan BradshawSimilar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+35
4.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 35 yds to the Liber 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.5%
LIBERTY Penalty, Disconcerting Signals on JIMMERSON, Jaylon enforced half the distance from the goal ( Yards) to the Liber 1Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.5%
Taylor Powell run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.6%
Taylor Powell sacked by Storey Jackson for 0 yards to the Liber 11Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
8.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 11 yds for a TD Timeout LIBERTY, clock 01:14 (Brooks Buce PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:22
Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
-14.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-8.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:58
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Trevor Hobbs) to the Troy 44
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com