Try the model
CONN

UConn 17 at UCF 49

UCF
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:27 · Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, downed at the UConn 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior+33.2Home team on offense+18.9Score differential+13.4Garbage-time factor+6.4Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:15: Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 17 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:56: Nathan Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — CONN win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:36: Ryan O'Keefe pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 49 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:40: Steven Krajewski run for 1 yd for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — CONN win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Parker Navarro run for 5 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CONN made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:48CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:48UCF 4th & 1 at CONN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:21CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:10CONN 4th & 11 at UCF 35, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:57UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 35, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:40CONN 4th & 1 at UCF 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    -2.2%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:27UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:01UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:59CONN 4th & 3 at UCF 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:26CONN 4th & 22 at UCF 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:02UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:50CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:38CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 18, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:53CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:30CONN 4th & 17 at UCF 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:51UCF 4th & 17 at UCF 31, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:51CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 48, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:05CONN 4th & 10 at UCF 15, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:58UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:37UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:50UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:15UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:56CONN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:36UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:40CONN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:43UCF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:063% → 3%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
96.7%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the UConn 23Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+1
96.7%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the UConn 24Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
96.6%
Joe McFadden punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5097% → 96%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
96.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 9 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+19
96.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 19 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UConn 14Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
96.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UConn 9Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
96.6%
Mikey Keene run for 1 yd to the UConn 8Similar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
96.6%
Parker Navarro run for 4 yds to the UConn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
96.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 9Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.2%
Steven Krajewski pass intercepted return for no gain to the UConn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 1:0496% → 97%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
96.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
96.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+30
96.5%
Mikey Keene run for 30 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:114% → 4%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
96.4%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
96.4%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 19Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
96.4%
Steven Krajewski pass incomplete CONNECTICUT Penalty, Illegal Motion (Keelan Marion) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+3
96.3%
Joe McFadden punt for 39 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3197% → 97%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 7 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
96.5%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Jaylon thrown to the CON5. PENALTY CON Offsides on JONES, Kevon enforced 5 yards from the CON48 to the CON43 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+38
96.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 38 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
96.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the UConn 8Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
97.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 8 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:403% → 3%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.9%
Kevin Mensah run for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
96.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 11 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
96.9%
Devontae Houston run for 7 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
96.8%
Devontae Houston run for 5 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
96.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 13 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
96.7%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
96.7%
Devontae Houston run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
96.8%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Big Kat Bryant and Tatum Bethune for 0 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
97.0%
Haydn Kerr punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 2:5597% → 98%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
97.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
97.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
97.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+12
96.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 12 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
97.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 17 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.2%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 5 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+15
97.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 15 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
97.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
97.3%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the UConn 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
97.3%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UConn 17Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+17
98.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 17 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:132% → 3%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.4%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Devontae Houston for 8 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
98.2%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.3%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 9 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-2
98.5%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 46Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+47
98.6%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Nathan Carter for 47 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.6%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.6%
Steven Krajewski run for 6 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5498% → 98%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
97.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+9
97.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 9 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-1
97.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
97.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 47 yds, downed at the UConn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:123% → 3%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
97.4%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
97.4%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
97.5%
Steven Krajewski pass intercepted return for no gain to the UConn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
98.8%
Ryan O'Keefe pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 49 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:491% → 3%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 6 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+45
99.0%
Nathan Carter run for 45 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.0%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+16
99.0%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 16 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Devontae Houston for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.0%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.0%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Steven Krajewski run for 1 yd for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-10
98.0%
KEENE, Mikey scrambles to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the UCF36 (MITCHELL, Jackson). PENALTY UCF Holding on CRAIG-MYERS, Nate enforced 10 yards from the UCF30 to the UCF20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+7
98.0%
Mikey Keene run for 7 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, downed at the UConn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:132% → 3%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.6%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 12 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Jon Powell for 0 yards to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+6
97.7%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 6 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Cam Goode for 0 yards to the UConn 40Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 16
OWN 40
+15
97.7%
KERR, Haydn punt 45 yards to the UCF15 out of bounds. PENALTY UCF Roughing the Kicker on WELLS, William enforced 15 yards from the CON40 to the UCF45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
97.2%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 6 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
97.0%
Steven Krajewski pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
98.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
97.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keelan Marion at the UConn 35Similar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.7%
KRAJEWSKI, Steven pass to the right incomplete intended for TURNER, Aaron thrown to the UCF35. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on HODGES, Justin enforced 15 yards to the CON50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:352% → 2%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
50
0
97.6%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
50
+1
97.8%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+6
97.8%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+6
97.7%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.7%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
97.7%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
97.9%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Justin Hodges for 0 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Joe McFadden punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:2498% → 98%
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+32
98.3%
Parker Navarro run for 32 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
98.4%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 6 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
98.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
98.4%
Mikey Keene sacked for 0 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 9
OWN 49
-5
98.3%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (Andrew Osteen) to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
98.3%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
98.3%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 45 yds, downed at the UConn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:122% → 1%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.3%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
98.3%
Kevin Mensah run for 2 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-5
98.3%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (Kevens Clercius) to the UConn 8Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+7
98.3%
Kevin Mensah run for 7 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+2
98.6%
Joe McFadden punt for 43 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+29
98.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 29 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
98.6%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 3 yds to the UConn 24Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+13
98.8%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 13 yds to the UConn 11 fumbled, recovered by UConn Eric WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
98.6%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 10Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+8
98.6%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the UConn 18Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
98.6%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+40
98.7%
Joe McFadden punt for 40 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
99.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 9 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
99.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 16 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
99.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 24 yds to the UConn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Parker Navarro run for 5 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Steven Krajewski run for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+19
99.9%
Joe McFadden punt for 39 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 19 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 9 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-1
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 42Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
OSTEEN, Andrew punt 29 yards to the CON13 downed by DOMIO, Marco. PENALTY Before the snap, CON Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the CON42 to the CON37 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+29
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 29 yds to the UConn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UConn 4Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UConn 3Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Kevin Mensah run for 6 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Kevin Mensah run for 10 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 13 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
99.9%
Steven Krajewski run for 22 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for 0 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
99.9%
Joe McFadden 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Joey Gatewood pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Joey Gatewood sacked by Travis Jones for 0 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 17
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Joey Gatewood pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 17
OWN 31
+41
99.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 41 yds , returns for no gain to the UConn 44 , returns for no gain to the UConn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 28DOWNS
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:460% → 0%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Nathan Carter for no gain to the UConn 48Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+8
100.0%
Steven Krajewski run for 8 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-5
99.9%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+9
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Heron Maurisseau for 9 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
99.9%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+9
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Devontae Houston for 9 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 10
OPP 15
0
100.0%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 22 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
100.0%
Trillion Coles run for 17 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
Trillion Coles run for 5 yds to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:40
Steven Krajewski run for 1 yd for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-1.9
TD · Q2 9:56
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-1.4
TD · Q2 7:36
Ryan O'Keefe pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 49 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com