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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadHOW aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreHOW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:40 · Dylan West punt for 42 yds, downed at the Mary 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:27: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — HOW win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:21: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:58: Colby McDonald run for 11 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:57: Peny Boone run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 6HOW made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 13:33HOW 4th & 8 at HOW 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 9:14HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 5:08HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q1 3:51MD 4th & 8 at MD 34, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q1 2:25HOW 4th & 10 at MD 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call1.0%60% to makePunt0.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:01HOW 4th & 4 at HOW 26, down 21Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:38MD 4th & 10 at HOW 38, up 21Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%30% to convertField goal99.2%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call99.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:03HOW 4th & 9 at HOW 4, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 7:08HOW 4th & 21 at HOW 14, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 3:17HOW 4th & 10 at HOW 15, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 1:02MD 4th & 15 at HOW 27, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%62% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:10MD 4th & 2 at HOW 45, up 35Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.157% to convertField goal99.8%25% to makePunt99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 11:52MD 4th & 2 at HOW 36, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.7%−0.142% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:28HOW 4th & 10 at MD 44, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 5:58HOW 4th & 11 at HOW 24, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:57MD 4th & 3 at HOW 16, up 52Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.181% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 13:40HOW 4th & 1 at HOW 34, down 55Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:27MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:44MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:21MD Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:58MD Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:57MD Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:52MD Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:54MD Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:38MD Touchdown, up 61 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHOWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
WILLIAMS, Quinton pass up the middle complete for 37 yards to MCDONALD, Matthew caught at the HOW30 and advanced to the UMD38 (CROSS, Nick). PENALTY Before the snap, HOW Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the HOW25 to the HOW20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2TD6 plays · 64 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q1 13:33
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 2 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 18 yds to the Howrd 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 7 yds to the Howrd 14Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 2:130% → 1%
Q1 11:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.6%
WILLIAMS, Quinton pass to the left incomplete intended for VI, Thomas thrown to the HOW34. PENALTY UMD Offsides enforced 5 yards from the HOW29 to the HOW34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Dylan West punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD7 plays · 54 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q1 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 9 yds to the Howrd 45Similar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
99.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 11 yds to the Howrd 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 4 yds to the Howrd 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:301% → 1%
MDDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q1 3:51
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+3
99.4%
Colton Spangler punt for 37 yds , A'Jae Boyd returns for 3 yds to the Howrd 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 7MISSED FG7 plays · 40 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.3%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 3 yds to the Howrd 35Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
99.3%
HUNTER, Jarett rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the HOW37 (BRADE, Beau). PENALTY UMD Offsides on ROGERS, Lawtez enforced 5 yards from the HOW35 to the HOW40 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+32
99.3%
Quinton Williams pass complete to A'Jae Boyd for 32 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD7 plays · 72 yds · 3:0499% → 100%
HOWDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Undre Lindsay sacked by Sam Okuayinonu for 0 yards to the Howrd 15Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
99.5%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Christion Carter for 6 yds to the Howrd 21Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.5%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Kasey Hawthorne for 5 yds to the Howrd 26Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+9
99.5%
Dylan West punt for 41 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for 9 yds to the Mary 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:23100% → 99%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q2 9:03
4TH & 9
OWN 4
+28
99.4%
Dylan West punt for 35 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 28 yds to the Howrd 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD1 play · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:500% → 0%
MDDrive 14TD5 plays · 45 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
HOWDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:350% → 0%
MDDrive 16MISSED FG6 plays · 21 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 10 yds to the Howrd 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 16 yds to the Howrd 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for a loss of 4 yards to the Howrd 26Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+9
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 9 yds to the Howrd 17Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Jevin Jackson and Marcus Brown for 0 yards to the Howrd 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 17INT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+15
99.8%
WILLIAMS, Quinton pass to the left incomplete intended for MCDONALD, Matthew thrown to the UMD46. PENALTY UMD Roughing the Passer on OKUAYINONU, Sam enforced 15 yards from the HOW27 to the HOW42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.8%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 5 yds to the Howrd 47Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Quinton Williams pass intercepted return for no gain to the Mary 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18FG7 plays · 33 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the Howrd 48Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+24
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 24 yds to the Howrd 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 6 yds to the Howrd 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD6 plays · 66 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+21
99.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 21 yds to the Howrd 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to DeaJaun McDougle for 3 yds to the Howrd 36Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+36
99.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 36 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 2:240% → 0%
MDDrive 21TD6 plays · 74 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Reece Udinski pass complete to DeaJaun McDougle for 9 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
99.9%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 20 yds to the Howrd 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+17
99.9%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 17 yds to the Howrd 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 22 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Jarett Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the Howrd 24Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Dylan West punt for 31 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 3 yds to the Mary 27 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (Lavonte Gater) to the Mary 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23FG10 plays · 46 yds · 6:01100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
Reece Udinski pass complete to DeaJaun McDougle for 5 yds to the Howrd 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Chance Hollingsworth pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 9 yds to the Howrd 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25TD16 plays · 76 yds · 10:02100% → 100%
Q4 13:40
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
HOWARD Penalty, Personal Foul (Cole Hoffman) to the Howrd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 26Uncategorized6 plays · 46 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+4
100.0%
Chance Hollingsworth pass complete to Cameron O'Neal for 4 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:58
Colby McDonald run for 11 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 14:21
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 11:27
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
-0.1