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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:52 · Ralph Fawaz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keelan Marion at the UConn 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 4:44: John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +7.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:16: Joe McFadden 35 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +20.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:31: Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +25.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:34: Titus Swen run for 2 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +21.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:04: Nathan Carter run for 2 yds for a TD — CONN win probability +27.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:39CONN 4th & 1 at WYO 11, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.3%71% to convertField goalTheir call4.2%−0.187% to makePunt3.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:33WYO 4th & 15 at CONN 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.117% to convertField goal94.2%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call94.3%average punt
- Q1 6:13CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 26, up 3Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:31WYO 4th & 3 at CONN 26, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snapGo for it92.5%52% to convertField goalTheir call92.4%−0.164% to makePunt91.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:54CONN 4th & 4 at WYO 12, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.3%45% to convertField goalTheir call12.2%−0.186% to makePunt9.1%−3.3average punt
- Q2 4:44WYO 4th & 7 at CONN 7, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snapGo for it72.5%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call72.9%91% to makePunt68.2%−4.7average punt
- Q2 2:58CONN 4th & 2 at WYO 49, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.4%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%−1.2average punt
- Q2 1:31WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it70.3%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.3%average punt
- Q2 0:49CONN 4th & 18 at CONN 47, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it26.4%−1.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q2 0:19WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snapGo for it66.6%−1.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%average punt
- Q3 8:06CONN 4th & 17 at CONN 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snapGo for it27.6%−3.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.7%average punt
- Q3 5:52WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it64.9%−1.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q3 4:50CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.4%−1.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q4 11:16CONN 4th & 17 at WYO 17, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snapGo for it44.1%−7.413% to convertField goalTheir call51.4%80% to makePunt31.9%−19.6average punt
- Q4 3:28CONN 4th & 9 at WYO 46, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.3%32% to convertField goal8.5%−0.823% to makePunt7.9%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 1:25CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.1%97% to makeGo for two10.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:15WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.5%97% to makeGo for two70.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:31WYO Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.1%97% to makeGo for two56.1%−2.945% to convert
- Q4 3:34WYO Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two84.9%−3.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:153% → 4%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
3.1%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Keelan Marion for 7 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+15
3.1%
PHOMMACHANH, Tyler pass to the left incomplete intended for CLERCIUS, Kevens thrown to the WYO15; QB hurried by MUMA, Chad. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on BLANKENBAKER, Keyon enforced 15 yards to the WYO34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
3.1%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Nathan Carter for 14 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
3.1%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Jahkai Gill for 5 yds to the Wyom 15Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
3.1%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Jahkai Gill for 4 yds to the Wyom 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 3:5996% → 95%
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+26
3.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 26 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+11
3.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Parker Christensen for 11 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-15
3.8%
CHAMBERS, Sean pass to the left complete for 16 yards to NEYOR, Isaiah caught at the UCO24 and advanced to the UCO24, out of bounds. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on SWEN, Titus enforced 15 yards to the WYO45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 24
OWN 45
+4
3.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 4 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 20
OWN 49
+5
5.0%
FAWAZ, Ralph punt 28 yards to the UCO23 downed by EKELER, Wyett. PENALTY UCO Running Into the kicker on CHEA, Alfred enforced 5 yards from the WYO49 to the UCO46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:205% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4MISSED FG7 plays · 19 yds · 3:4295% → 93%
CONNDrive 5TD7 plays · 74 yds · 1:067% → 9%
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
6.8%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 18 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
7.2%
WYOMING Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (C.J. Coldon) to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
8.8%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Jay Rose for 42 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4491% → 91%
CONNDrive 7FG7 plays · 29 yds · 2:479% → 14%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
9.4%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Jahkai Gill for 8 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+15
9.9%
PHOMMACHANH, Tyler pass up the middle intercepted by GANDY, Esaias at the WYO13 intended for ROSE, Jay. Gandy return for 12 yards to the WYO25 (CARTER, Nate). PENALTY WYO Roughing the Passer on HOLT, Ravontae enforced 15 yards from the WYO33 to the WYO18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
9.9%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Brandon Niemenski for 1 yd to the Wyom 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+4
9.7%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Keelan Marion for 4 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8FG18 plays · 72 yds · 8:0687% → 80%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
13.4%
run for no gain to the Wyom 21 fumbled, recovered by Wyom Sean ChambersSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
13.5%
WYOMING Penalty, False Start (Parker Christensen) to the Wyom 16Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+5
13.6%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 5 yds to the Wyom 21Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
13.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 27 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
12.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Parker Christensen for 7 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
12.2%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 6 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+5
12.1%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 5 yds to the UConn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 1:4620% → 23%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Brian Brewton for no gain to the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2776% → 72%
Q2 1:31
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+31
27.8%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 50 yds , Keelan Marion returns for 31 yds to the Wyom 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT3 plays · -8 yds · 0:4228% → 26%
WYODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3072% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13Uncategorized3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2430% → 28%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
30.0%
CARTER, Nate rush to the left for no gain to the UCO27 (MUMA, Chad). PENALTY UCO Holding on VAN DEMARK, Ryan enforced 10 yards from the UCO27 to the UCO17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14TD9 plays · 69 yds · 4:4071% → 79%
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+8
28.7%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 8 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+15
27.5%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Hunter Webb) to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
21.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 18 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0426% → 28%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.3%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
28.8%
Tyler Phommachanh sacked by Solomon Byrd for 0 yards to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
28.0%
Joe McFadden punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ayden Eberhardt at the Wyom 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1471% → 66%
Q3 5:52
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
34.1%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keelan Marion at the UConn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0234% → 33%
Q3 4:50
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+2
32.6%
Joe McFadden punt for 38 yds , Ayden Eberhardt returns for 2 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18INT5 plays · 16 yds · 2:1967% → 65%
Q3 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
32.1%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 5 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19FG17 plays · 74 yds · 6:1537% → 67%
Q3 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+19
36.0%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Aaron Turner for 19 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+20
36.7%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Aaron Turner for 20 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+14
44.2%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Keelan Marion for 14 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
48.2%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 1 yd to the Wyom 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
46.4%
Tyler Phommachanh sacked by Solomon Byrd and Rome Weber for 0 yards to the Wyom 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD10 plays · 77 yds · 4:3942% → 74%
CONNDrive 21INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.7%
Tyler Phommachanh pass intercepted return for no gain to the UConn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD5 plays · 29 yds · 2:4374% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23TD19 plays · 64 yds · 3:2412% → 41%
Q4 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
14.6%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 9
OPP 46
+4
10.8%
Tyler Phommachanh pass incomplete for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Pass Interference on COLDON, C.J. enforced at the spot of the foul for (4 Yards) to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
14.4%
PHOMMACHANH, Tyler pass to the left incomplete intended for JEFFREYS, Elijah thrown to the WYO1. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on HEARN, Azizi enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the WYO14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+6
10.1%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the Wyom 8Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+6
9.8%
PHOMMACHANH, Tyler pass to the right incomplete intended for TURNER, Aaron thrown to the WYO0. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on WEBER, Rome enforced 6 yards to the WYO2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-42.4
TD · Q4 0:04
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds for a TD
+27
TD · Q4 6:31
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
-25.9