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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadDEL aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreDEL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:52 · Tyler Pastula punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:39: Isaih Pacheco run for 20 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +2.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:46: Nolan Henderson pass complete to Thyrick Pitts for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK) — DEL win probability +4.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:28: Noah Vedral pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 62 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +4.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:22: Aaron Young run for 6 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:53: Ryan Coe 41 yd FG GOOD — DEL win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4DEL made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 12:43DEL 4th & 13 at DEL 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.4%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q1 6:52DEL 4th & 9 at DEL 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it11.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q1 5:19RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snapGo for it88.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.6%average punt
- Q2 14:16DEL 4th & 27 at DEL 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q2 7:37DEL 4th & 23 at RUTG 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.77% to convertField goalTheir call9.8%42% to makePunt9.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:12DEL 4th & 14 at DEL 13, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it5.7%−1.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q3 11:52RUTG 4th & 5 at DEL 16, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%81% to makePunt96.5%−1.7average punt
- Q3 10:09DEL 4th & 12 at DEL 37, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 7:11RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 43, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 7:11DEL 4th & 3 at RUTG 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%52% to convertField goal0.6%−0.154% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 0:53DEL 4th & 7 at RUTG 24, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%68% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:33DEL 4th & 5 at DEL 30, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:26RUTG 4th & 7 at DEL 47, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:10DEL 4th & 10 at DEL 47, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DEL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:34RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:39RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:46DEL Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.1%97% to makeGo for two13.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:28RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:22RUTG Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:16RUTG Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDELDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1710% → 11%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.8%
Henderson,Nolan pass incomplete to Coleman II,Gene PENALTY RUT Personal Foul (Toure,Mohamed) 15 yards from DEL25 to DEL40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+15
89.3%
Tyler Pastula punt for 45 yds , Aron Cruickshank returns for 15 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD9 plays · 67 yds · 3:0989% → 90%
Q1 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
89.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 7 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+8
89.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Delaw 45Similar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
89.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 11 yds to the Delaw 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
89.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 28 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4211% → 11%
RUTGDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3389% → 88%
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
88.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 4 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 5PUNT12 plays · 23 yds · 6:0312% → 12%
Q1 5:19
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
88.3%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Braden Brose for no gain to the Delaw 27Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
88.4%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Dejoun Lee for 9 yds to the Delaw 42Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
88.0%
Henderson,Nolan pass complete to de Maille,Bryce for 22 yards to the RUT20 (Young,Avery) PENALTY DEL Chop Block (de Maille,Bryce) 15 yards from RUT42 to DEL43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 25
OWN 43
-1
88.4%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Austin Haverstrom for 9 yds to the RUTGERS 48 DELAWARE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Trent) to the Delaw 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 29
OWN 39
-11
87.7%
Nolan Henderson sacked by Aaron Lewis for a loss of 11 yards to the Delaw 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 40
OWN 28
+13
88.1%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 13 yds to the Delaw 41Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 27
OWN 41
0
88.0%
Tyler Pastula punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD4 plays · 84 yds · 1:3788% → 91%
DELDrive 7TD3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4810% → 14%
RUTGDrive 8TD2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
91.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 62 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 9FG10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5110% → 10%
RUTGDrive 10TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:1590% → 94%
Q2 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
89.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+19
89.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 19 yds to the Delaw 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
90.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 3 yds to the Delaw 31Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+21
89.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 21 yds to the Delaw 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -4 yds · 2:048% → 7%
DELDrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · 8 yds · 2:077% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13FG9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0898% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 12 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+12
97.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 12 yds to the Delaw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
97.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Johnny Langan for 23 yds to the Delaw 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+9
97.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 9 yds to the Delaw 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q3 11:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
99.3%
Henderson,Nolan pass incomplete to Pitts,Thyrick PENALTY RUT Pass Interference (Abraham,Kessawn) 15 yards from DEL24 to DEL39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.3%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Dejoun Lee for 2 yds to the Delaw 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 2:5899% → 100%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
99.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Johnny Langan for 8 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 3 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+10
99.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 10 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 16FG15 plays · 75 yds · 6:180% → 2%
Q3 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
99.6%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Gene Coleman II for 8 yds to the Delaw 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.6%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Quincy Watson for 8 yds to the Delaw 39Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.7%
Anthony Paoletti pass complete to Brett Buckman for 3 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3799% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
99.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 18 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER9 plays · 54 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+11
99.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Johnny Langan for 11 yds to the Rutgr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Jamier Wright-Collins run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Jamier Wright-Collins run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
DELAWARE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Delaw 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q4 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
Tyler Pastula punt for 46 yds , Christian Dremel returns for 12 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 17 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 6:26
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Shameen Jones for no gain to the Delaw 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Anthony Paoletti pass complete to James Collins for no gain to the Delaw 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:46
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Thyrick Pitts for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)
-4.3
TD · Q2 11:28
Noah Vedral pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 62 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q2 4:22
Aaron Young run for 6 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+3.4