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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:46 · Adam Barry punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:44: Johnny Langan 2 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick) — RUTG win probability +4.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:15: Edward Saydee 11 Yd Run (Samir Gardner Kick) — TEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:02: D'Wan Mathis 3 Yd Run (Samir Gardner Kick) — TEM win probability +6.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:05: Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 40 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:57: Max Melton 46 Yd Interception Return (Valentino Ambrosio Kick) — RUTG win probability +5.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 10 of 10TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:02RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it82.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q1 10:35RUTG 4th & 3 at TEM 26, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.8%52% to convertField goal81.8%−<0.164% to makePunt81.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 8:52RUTG 4th & 5 at TEM 7, up 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snapGo for it81.4%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call81.4%91% to makePunt80.7%−0.7average punt
- Q1 7:31TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q1 6:36RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 27, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it80.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.7%average punt
- Q1 4:28TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 40, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q1 2:15RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 24, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snapGo for it78.9%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.4%average punt
- Q2 8:05RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 22, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snapGo for it88.9%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.8%average punt
- Q2 5:46TEM 4th & 4 at RUTG 36, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.1%48% to convertField goal10.3%−0.842% to makePunt10.0%−1.1average punt
- Q2 2:14RUTG 4th & 17 at TEM 46, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it91.4%−0.514% to convertField goal91.6%−0.423% to makePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q3 14:54TEM 4th & 7 at RUTG 32, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%37% to convertField goal8.2%−0.151% to makePunt7.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:28RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 24, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it87.2%−0.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.1%average punt
- Q3 8:38TEM 4th & 21 at TEM 22, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it10.7%−2.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.0%average punt
- Q3 5:26TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 24, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 5:26RUTG 4th & 2 at TEM 25, up 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%57% to convertField goal98.8%−0.366% to makePunt97.4%−1.7average punt
- Q4 12:55TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 22, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 9:46TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 33, down 40Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:46RUTG 4th & 3 at TEM 16, up 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%51% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.181% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 1:44RUTG Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.0%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:15RUTG Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.6%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:59RUTG Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two88.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:15TEM Touchdown, down 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.2%97% to makeGo for two8.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:02TEM Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.7%97% to makeGo for two11.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:05RUTG Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:57RUTG Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:57RUTG Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:26RUTG Touchdown, up 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:09RUTG Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5487% → 86%
TEMDrive 2SF3 plays · -1 yds · 1:0814% → 14%
RUTGDrive 3FG10 plays · 26 yds · 2:5186% → 86%
TEMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2115% → 15%
RUTGDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5585% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:0815% → 15%
Q1 6:36
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-4
84.9%
D'Wan Mathis sacked by Olakunle Fatukasi for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 23Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 15
OWN 23
+15
85.0%
Barry,Adam punt 38 yards to the RUT39, out of bounds PENALTY RUT Roughing The Kicker (Melton,Max) 15 yards from TEM23 to TEM38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
84.6%
Adam Barry punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1384% → 83%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
84.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 4 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8INT2 plays · 9 yds · 0:2816% → 17%
RUTGDrive 9TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10TD7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2388% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11FUMBLE5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5210% → 10%
Q2 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
89.4%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Hooper,Joseph) 5 yards from TEM34 to TEM29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
90.0%
D'Wan Mathis sacked by Olakunle Fatukasi for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 22 D'Wan Mathis fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Ifeanyi Maijeh , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12TD4 plays · 22 yds · 1:2491% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13TD8 plays · 65 yds · 1:446% → 11%
Q2 10:59
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+38
94.7%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Randle Jones for 38 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+9
93.7%
D'Wan Mathis run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0392% → 91%
Q2 8:05
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
90.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jadan Blue at the Temp 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 2:1910% → 10%
Q2 8:05
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+23
90.3%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 23 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 3:3292% → 93%
TEMDrive 17END OF HALF7 plays · 21 yds · 2:148% → 8%
Q2 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+13
92.0%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Edward Saydee for 13 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18TD10 plays · 81 yds · 2:527% → 14%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
92.2%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 19 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
91.7%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Edward Saydee for 12 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+29
92.1%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Jose Barbon for 29 yds to the Rutgr 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2890% → 89%
Q3 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+4
89.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 4 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5012% → 11%
Q3 8:45
4TH & 16
OWN 27
-5
89.0%
Barry,Adam punt 45 yards to the RUT28 PENALTY TEM Equipment Violation 5 yards from TEM27 to TEM22. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3391% → 97%
TEMDrive 22INT TD5 plays · 14 yds · 1:086% → 1%
TEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:311% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24TD13 plays · 64 yds · 5:2999% → 100%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 2 yds to the Temp 49Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+11
99.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 11 yds to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+5
99.4%
Vedral,Noah pass incomplete to Melton,Bo PENALTY TEM Offside (Rodgers III,Will) 5 yards from TEM32 to TEM27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+7
99.3%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 7 yds to the Temp 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 14:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.8%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Klein,Adam) 5 yards from TEM29 to TEM24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.8%
Barry,Adam punt 44 yards to the RUT29 Cruickshank,Aron return 0 yards to the RUT29 (Ruley,Tayvon) PENALTY TEM Illegal Formation 5 yards from TEM27 to TEM22. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26TD3 plays · 17 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 3 yds to the Temp 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:400% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 28TD13 plays · 62 yds · 6:37100% → 100%
TEMDrive 29FUMBLE2 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:02
D'Wan Mathis 3 Yd Run (Samir Gardner Kick)
-6.1
TD · Q3 8:05
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 40 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 6:57
Max Melton 46 Yd Interception Return (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)
+5.9