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VILL

Villanova 17 at Penn State 38

PSU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreVILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD—PSU 99.9%Tyler Warren run for 3 yds for a TD(Jordan Stout KICK)AWAY 3 - HOME 38 · Q4 13:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:58 · Tyler Warren run for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+18.0Home team on offense+35.0Score differential+25.1Garbage-time factor+12.3Blowout margin+10.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:07: Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 52 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:26: Jordan Stout 29 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:14: Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 83 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:58: Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 17 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK) — VILL win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8VILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:07VILL 4th & 18 at VILL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46VILL 4th & 6 at VILL 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:05PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:55PSU 4th & 10 at VILL 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:21VILL 4th & 11 at PSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:31VILL 4th & 8 at VILL 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26PSU 4th & 12 at VILL 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:19VILL 4th & 15 at VILL 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:06PSU 4th & 13 at VILL 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:03VILL 4th & 9 at VILL 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:27PSU 4th & 12 at VILL 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:33PSU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:06VILL 4th & 5 at VILL 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:53VILL 4th & 21 at VILL 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:57VILL 4th & 8 at VILL 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:58PSU 4th & 1 at VILL 3, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:26PSU 4th & 8 at VILL 38, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:45VILL 4th & 7 at PSU 42, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5VILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:59PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:07PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:14PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:58PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:58PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:42VILL Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:28VILL Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VILLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:483% → 3%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.4%
Justin Covington run for 9 yds to the Villa 34Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
97.2%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Justin Covington for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 32Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
97.2%
VILLANOVA Penalty, Personal Foul (Colin Gamroth) to the Villa 17Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
97.2%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez BoykinSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
97.2%
Connor Watkins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
97.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 52 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:593% → 3%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Justin Covington run for no gain to the Villa 25Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for no gain to the Villa 25Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.1%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 4 yds to the Villa 29Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Connor Watkins punt for 44 yds, downed at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:3597% → 97%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
97.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+6
97.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
96.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
96.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
96.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
96.8%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
96.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the Villa 44Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
96.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the Villa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
96.7%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Villa 36Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
96.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+53
96.5%
Jordan Stout 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 5FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 5:244% → 5%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
96.5%
Daniel Smith pass complete to DeeWil Barlee for 11 yds to the Villa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 45Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+1
96.3%
Daniel Smith run for 1 yd to the Villa 46Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+17
96.2%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 17 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
95.9%
Jalen Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
95.7%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+15
95.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dvon Ellies) to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
95.4%
Justin Covington run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
95.3%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Jaquan AllenSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
95.4%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Justin CovingtonSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
95.1%
Cole Bunce 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0595% → 96%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.1%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.9%
John Lovett run for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+25
94.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 25 yds to the Villa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
95.0%
Sean Clifford sacked by Bryce Ganious for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+52
95.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 52 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:264% → 5%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.7%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 5 yds to the Villa 30Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
95.5%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Rayjoun PringleSimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
95.6%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Dez Boykin for 8 yds to the Villa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
95.4%
Daniel Smith run for 2 yds to the Villa 40Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
95.2%
Daniel Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Jaaron HayekSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
95.5%
Connor Watkins punt for 37 yds, downed at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5496% → 96%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
95.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+5
95.5%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+67
95.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 67 yds to the Villa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.7%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Villa 9Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
95.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the Villa 12Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
96.1%
Jordan Stout 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:414% → 4%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.7%
Justin Covington run for 2 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
95.7%
Justin Covington run for 2 yds to the Villa 29Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
95.6%
Daniel Smith sacked by PJ Mustipher and TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the Villa 20Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+8
95.8%
Connor Watkins punt for 38 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:5496% → 96%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
50
-4
96.0%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+14
95.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 14 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
95.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the Villa 31Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-1
95.9%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 32Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-1
95.7%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 33Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-10
95.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rasheed Walker) to the Villa 43Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
95.7%
Jordan Stout punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jared Wolfe at the Villa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:474% → 4%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
95.8%
DeeWil Barlee run for 2 yds to the Villa 7Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-1
95.8%
DeeWil Barlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 6Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
95.8%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez BoykinSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+37
95.8%
Connor Watkins punt for 37 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1896% → 96%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
96.0%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the Villa 41Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-6
95.9%
Sean Clifford sacked by Forrest Rhyne and Jared Nelson for a loss of 6 yards to the Villa 47Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+1
95.9%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Villa 46Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
95.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds, downed at the Villa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
95.6%
Daniel Smith run for 2 yds to the Villa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:3196% → 98%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
95.7%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+83
98.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 83 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 15INT
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
97.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 32 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
97.7%
Daniel Smith pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 15 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:2798% → 98%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.3%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+13
98.3%
John Lovett run for 13 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
98.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
50
-7
98.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Forrest Rhyne for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 17
OWN 43
0
98.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Marquis WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+7
98.3%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 10
50
0
98.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jared Wolfe at the Villa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:192% → 2%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
98.2%
Jalen Jackson run for 14 yds to the Villa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.2%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez BoykinSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
98.3%
Jalen Jackson run for 5 yds to the Villa 29Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Dez BoykinSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+13
98.3%
Connor Watkins punt for 33 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 13 yds to the Villa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.5%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Villa 49Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
98.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 1 yd to the Villa 48Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-2
98.5%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Kshawn Schulters return for 2 yds to the Villa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:072% → 1%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
98.3%
Daniel Smith pass complete to TD Ayo-Durojaiye for 9 yds to the Villa 43Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
98.2%
Justin Covington run for 3 yds to the Villa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
98.3%
Daniel Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 44Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Rayjoun PringleSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-9
98.4%
Daniel Smith sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 9 yards to the Villa 35Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 21
OWN 35
+1
98.6%
Connor Watkins punt for 38 yds , Marquis Wilson returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4799% → 100%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
98.5%
John Lovett run for 11 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.2%
John Lovett run for 9 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+15
98.3%
VILLANOVA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Denzel Williams) to the Villa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
98.3%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Villa 35Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+12
98.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 12 yds to the Villa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-9
98.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 1 yd to the Villa 22 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam Sullivan-Brown) to the Villa 32Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+9
98.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the Villa 23Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Rayjoun PringleSimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
TD Ayo-Durojaiye run for 2 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Jaquan AllenSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Connor Watkins punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Villa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
99.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 30 yds to the Villa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
99.9%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Villa 9Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the Villa 4Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
99.9%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Villa 3Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Tyler Warren run for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:030% → 0%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
DeeWil Barlee run for 2 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 5 yds to the Villa 32Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to DeeWil Barlee for 3 yds to the Villa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 6 yds to the Villa 41Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaquan Allen for 4 yds to the Villa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
99.9%
Daniel Smith sacked by Coziah Izzard for a loss of 8 yards to the Villa 37Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Jalen Jackson run for 6 yds to the Villa 43Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+57
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 57 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+12
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Marquis Wilson for 12 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+14
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Marquis Wilson for 14 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Winston Eubanks for 2 yds to the Villa 38Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Marquis WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jared Wolfe at the Villa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 25TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 4:270% → 1%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
99.9%
Jalen Jackson run for 4 yds to the Villa 10Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+20
100.0%
Jalen Jackson run for 20 yds to the Villa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Dez Boykin for 11 yds to the Villa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Jaaron Hayek for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 1
50
+5
99.9%
Daniel Smith run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
100.0%
VILLANOVA Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 15
50
0
100.0%
Daniel Smith pass incomplete to Andrew PerezSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 15
50
+7
100.0%
Jalen Jackson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 1 yd to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+25
100.0%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Todd Summers for 25 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.4%
Daniel Smith pass complete to Rayjoun Pringle for 17 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 9 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+7
99.6%
Tank Smith run for 7 yds to the Villa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:14
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 83 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q3 1:58
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 14:07
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 52 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com