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BALL

Ball State 13 at Penn State 44

PSU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.3PSU 92.9%Jordan Stout 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 17 · Q2 11:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:22 · Jordan Stout 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+34.0Home team on offense+8.1Score differential+4.0Garbage-time factor+2.6Blowout margin−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:25: Jake Chanove 24 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +1.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:22: Jordan Stout 45 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:50: Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 25 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Jake Chanove 23 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:56: Drew Plitt pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:34BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:11BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53BALL 4th & 4 at PSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:25BALL 4th & 5 at PSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:22PSU 4th & 10 at BALL 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:34BALL 4th & 21 at BALL 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:51PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00BALL 4th & 5 at PSU 5, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:02PSU 4th & 4 at BALL 28, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:42BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:03PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:43BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:53PSU 4th & 5 at BALL 9, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:59PSU 4th & 5 at BALL 5, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:54BALL 4th & 1 at PSU 6, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 18, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:25BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 45, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:01PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:53PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:50PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:56PSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:54BALL Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:10PSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:267% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 53 yds, downed at the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:3393% → 93%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
93.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
93.2%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
93.2%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+15
93.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 15 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
93.2%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
93.2%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.2%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
93.2%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
93.2%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
93.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+6
93.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
93.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 6 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
92.7%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:508% → 8%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
92.5%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
92.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jordan Williams for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.3%
Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:1892% → 93%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
92.3%
Jahan Dotson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
92.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+5
92.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
92.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 23 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
92.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 10 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
92.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 24 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
92.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 6 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:287% → 9%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.8%
Donny Marcus run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
92.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for no gain to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+11
92.8%
Drew Plitt run for 11 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
92.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
92.6%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
92.7%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+21
92.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Carson Steele for 21 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
92.5%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
92.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 6 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
92.6%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
91.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
91.9%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+3
92.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 3 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
91.1%
Jake Chanove 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:5692% → 93%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
91.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
91.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Marquis Wilson for 3 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+8
91.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
91.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
91.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+6
91.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
91.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
91.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
92.9%
Jordan Stout 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:488% → 8%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
92.3%
Justin Hall run for 5 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+10
92.3%
PLITT, Drew pass to the left incomplete intended for MCGAUGHY, Jalen broken up by KING, Kalen at the BSU48. PENALTY PSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the BSU18 to the BSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
92.3%
Donny Marcus run for 5 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-15
92.2%
PLITT, Drew pass to the left complete for 14 yards to JACKSON, Jayshon caught at the BSU40 and advanced to the BSU47 (KING, Kalen;SUTHERLAND, Jonathan), out of bounds. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference enforced 15 yards from the BSU33 to the BSU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 20
OWN 18
-1
92.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
92.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4393% → 92%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.2%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-2
93.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.9%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9Uncategorized
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
92.1%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
92.2%
Drew Plitt sacked by Curtis Jacobs for 0 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:4193% → 97%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
92.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 10 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
92.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.8%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+16
92.6%
Sean Clifford run for 16 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.9%
Sean Clifford sacked by Tavion Woodard for 0 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+16
92.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 16 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.9%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
97.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 25 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 2:504% → 7%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Dylan Koch for 3 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
96.3%
Jayshon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+11
96.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 11 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
96.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 15 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
96.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+5
95.8%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
95.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 23 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.8%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
95.9%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
96.1%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (Chris Agyemang) to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
96.3%
Drew Plitt run for 7 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
93.4%
Jake Chanove 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:5294% → 96%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
94.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 11 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
94.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 12 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
94.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 12 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
94.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 11 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
94.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 5 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
94.4%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
94.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
96.0%
Jordan Stout 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:206% → 5%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
94.7%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
94.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Nathan Snyder punt for 56 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for no gain to the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:3996% → 96%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
96.2%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
96.2%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+5
96.1%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
96.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+7
96.1%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+13
96.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 13 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.4%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
96.4%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
96.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Christian Albright and John Harris for 0 yards to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
96.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Donny Marcus run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
98.8%
Donny Marcus run for 2 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:5099% → 100%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+43
99.3%
Sean Clifford run for 43 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.3%
CLIFFORD, Sean pass to the left incomplete intended for CAIN, Noah thrown to the BSU28. PENALTY BSU Roughing the Passer enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the BSU29 to the BSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.3%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-2
99.3%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 13Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+4
99.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
99.8%
Jordan Stout 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-10
99.8%
PLITT, Drew pass to the left incomplete intended for BRENSON, Chevalier thrown to the BSU50. PENALTY BSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the BSU39 to the BSU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted return for no gain to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
99.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 18 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
99.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.8%
Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+8
99.8%
Noah Cain run for 8 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.8%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
99.8%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+6
99.8%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.8%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.8%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
99.9%
Jordan Stout 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20DOWNS TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:050% → 1%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Will Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
99.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Targeting on RUDOLPH, Tyler enforced (Tyler Rudolph) to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+12
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Chevy Brenson for 12 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
99.9%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete intended for BRENSON, Chevalier thrown to the PSU15. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the PSU27 to the PSU16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.9%
Justin Hall run for 9 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
99.3%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3799% → 99%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
99.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
99.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Bryce Cosby for 0 yards to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.4%
Justin Hall run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
99.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Donny Marcus for 1 yd to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+5
99.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:1599% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.4%
Devyn Ford run for 9 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
99.4%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.4%
Devyn Ford run for 9 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+4
99.4%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Theo Johnson for 23 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
100.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Ryan Lezon for 6 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Trevor Hohlt for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
100.0%
Carson Steele run for 9 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Hassan Littles for 8 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Trevor Hohlt for 6 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
100.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Dylan Koch for 28 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
100.0%
PADDOCK, John pass to the right incomplete intended for LITTLES, Hassan thrown to the PSU0. PENALTY PSU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the PSU12 to the PSU7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 7
0
99.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:50
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 25 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
+4.1
FG · Q2 0:00
Jake Chanove 23 yd FG GOOD
-2.9
TD · Q3 5:56
Drew Plitt pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com