Try the model
PSU

Penn State 16 at Wisconsin 10

WIS
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:57 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 59 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:08: Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 49 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:01: Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +17.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:26: Jordan Stout 24 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:17: Noah Cain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout PAT MISSED) — PSU win probability +23.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11: Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 42 — PSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:24PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11WIS 4th & 23 at WIS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26PSU 4th & 4 at WIS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:37PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:50WIS 4th & 1 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:21WIS 4th & 7 at PSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:58PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:00WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.3%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:41WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:03WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:54PSU 4th & 3 at WIS 6, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%−1.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−13.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:24WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:56PSU 4th & 21 at PSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−7.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:36WIS 4th & 6 at PSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−13.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:26PSU 4th & 2 at WIS 7, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−15.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:30WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−3.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:16WIS 4th & 8 at PSU 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−5.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−15.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:11PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 12:08PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:01WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:17PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3135% → 35%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.4%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
65.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 10 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
65.3%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Rasheed Walker) to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
65.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
65.4%
Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:0965% → 65%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
65.3%
Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+14
65.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 14 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
65.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 12 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-18
65.4%
Graham Mertz sacked by Ellis Brooks for a loss of 18 yards to the Wisc 27 WISCONSIN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Graham Mertz) to the Wisc 27Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 28
OWN 27
+5
65.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 5 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 23
OWN 32
0
64.8%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 23
OWN 32
+10
64.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 43 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:3835% → 36%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
64.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
64.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+24
65.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 24 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
64.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
64.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+4
64.1%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
64.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1865% → 64%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
64.8%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
64.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
64.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
64.4%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1536% → 35%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.4%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
64.4%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
64.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
65.0%
Jordan Stout punt for 47 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 21 PENN ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (A.J. Lytton) to the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6MISSED FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 6:4965% → 64%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
65.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
50
+6
65.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 6 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
65.3%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
65.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-3
65.5%
Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+8
65.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
64.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
65.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 19 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
65.9%
Kendric Pryor run for 8 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+1
65.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
65.4%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
66.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Kayden Lyles) to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
66.0%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
66.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
64.4%
Collin Larsh 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Arnold EbiketieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0037% → 36%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
62.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
63.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
64.0%
Jordan Stout punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8FUMBLE
13 plays · 62 yds · 6:3464% → 65%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 15 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
64.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
65.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
65.0%
John Chenal run for no gain to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
64.2%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
65.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
65.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 9 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
65.3%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
65.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kalen King) to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
66.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
66.2%
Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+6
66.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 6 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-5
65.3%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 13 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by PnSt Nick TarburtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5540% → 39%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
60.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
60.4%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-3
61.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
2 plays · 11 yds · 1:4363% → 61%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
63.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+7
60.6%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 7 yds to the PnSt 44 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3441% → 39%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
59.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
59.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
59.8%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+8
60.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 53 yds , Dean Engram returns for 8 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4463% → 64%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
62.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
62.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
63.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4863% → 61%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
62.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
62.8%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
61.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 0:5241% → 60%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
58.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+6
57.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
58.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
56.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Faion Hicks) to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
40.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 49 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0445% → 66%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack DunnSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 15 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
46.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
47.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 9 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
47.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 23 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
49.6%
Kendric Pryor run for 9 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
49.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
49.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+10
48.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 10 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:5542% → 44%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
58.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
58.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+52
59.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 52 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
52.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Caesar Williams) to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
52.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
52.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for no gain to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+7
54.2%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
55.6%
Jordan Stout 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2661% → 58%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
60.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
57.5%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2444% → 40%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
55.8%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
57.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 15
OWN 30
-6
58.5%
Sean Clifford sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 21
OWN 24
0
59.7%
Jordan Stout punt for 76 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:5460% → 72%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
60.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 7 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+17
61.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 17 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
63.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
64.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
64.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 7 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+8
64.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
66.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
65.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
64.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
71.8%
Collin Larsh 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 1:5732% → 48%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+34
67.6%
Noah Cain run for 34 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
62.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
61.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+13
63.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 13 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
61.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
61.4%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+1
63.3%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Wisc 7Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
52.2%
Jordan Stout 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4959% → 56%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
56.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
55.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:0447% → 76%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
53.4%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+42
51.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 42 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
47.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+16
47.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 16 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
47.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the Wisc 2Similar
Q4 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.8%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23INT
18 plays · 67 yds · 6:5335% → 30%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
35.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 6 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
35.6%
Chimere Dike run for 10 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
36.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 11 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
37.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+2
36.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+19
35.3%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ellis Brooks) to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
37.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
36.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
33.1%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
36.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
36.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+8
34.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
36.2%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 7 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by Wisc Isaac GuerendoSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
36.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
33.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack DunnSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-41
29.5%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Jaquan Brisker return for 41 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0090% → 89%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
10.2%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+1
10.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 1 yd to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
9.0%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 6
OWN 47
-5
10.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
10.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25INT
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:0719% → 20%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
19.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 16 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
25.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 8 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+7
31.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
30.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-7
27.1%
Graham Mertz sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 32 WISCONSIN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Graham Mertz) to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
-6
19.9%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 6 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:17
Noah Cain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout PAT MISSED)
-23.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 42
-19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com