2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:08 · Ethan Slike punt for 32 yds, downed at the OhSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:27: DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK) — AKR win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:11: TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:23: Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:16: TreVeyon Henderson run for 14 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:43: DJ Irons pass intercepted for a TD Ronnie Hickman return for 46 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:56AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 46, tiedClose callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:07OSU 4th & 16 at OSU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q1 1:08AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 2:38AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 18, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 0:37OSU 4th & 19 at OSU 47, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q2 0:14AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 13, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 11:32AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 49, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 7:01AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 48, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 1:50AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 37, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:10OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 41, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 6:59AKR 4th & 25 at OSU 25, down 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.16% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%66% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:27AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:27OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:11OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:23OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:16OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:43OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:56OSU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:14OSU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:47OSU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:580% → 1%
OSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
AKRDrive 3TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:351% → 1%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jonzell Norrils for 2 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
99.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 8 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+17
99.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 17 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds for a TD (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
AKRDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 4:191% → 1%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
DJ Irons sacked by Haskell Garrett for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 20Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
99.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
98.8%
DJ Irons sacked by Haskell Garrett for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD3 plays · 73 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+57
98.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 57 yds to the Akron 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+2
98.9%
Ethan Slike punt for 39 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 2 yds to the OhSt 25 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1399% → 99%
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+7
98.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Chris Olave for 7 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
98.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+8
98.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 8 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9INT5 plays · 20 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q2 8:17
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-34
98.7%
DJ Irons pass intercepted Cody Simon return for 24 yds to the OHIOST 31 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD3 plays · 40 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
Q2 7:35
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+23
98.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 23 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11INT TD7 plays · 17 yds · 2:281% → 0%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.3%
DJ Irons sacked by Jerron Cage for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-46
99.8%
DJ Irons pass intercepted for a TD Ronnie Hickman return for 46 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:220% → 0%
OSUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 20 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
99.8%
Kyle McCord sacked by Jaylen Kelly-Powell for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 48Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+6
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 6 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-7
99.8%
Kyle McCord sacked by Ryan Johnson and - 8h for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 0:230% → 0%
Q2 0:14
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Ethan Slike punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15FG2 plays · 39 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
AKRDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17INT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
AKRDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:120% → 0%
OSUDrive 19TD2 plays · 87 yds · 0:04100% → 100%
AKRDrive 20PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 3:510% → 0%
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 11 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 2 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Ethan Slike punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD8 plays · 85 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
AKRDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:130% → 0%
OSUDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
99.9%
Miyan Williams run for 9 yds to the OhSt 35 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 11
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 4 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Konata Mumpfield at the Akron 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24MISSED FG16 plays · 59 yds · 6:370% → 0%
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
100.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 4 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 15 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+16
99.9%
Blake Hester run for 1 yd to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
100.0%
DJ Irons sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 10Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-10
100.0%
DJ Irons sacked by Tyleik Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
100.0%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Chris Booker for 16 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER11 plays · 53 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
100.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 7 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
100.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Blake Hester for 6 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+18
100.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 18 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+7
100.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Blake Hester for 7 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
100.0%
Zach Gibson sacked by Ty Hamilton for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 15Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 11
OPP 15
-7
100.0%
Zach Gibson sacked by Tyleik Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:16
TreVeyon Henderson run for 14 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 4:43
DJ Irons pass intercepted for a TD Ronnie Hickman return for 46 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 10:23
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+0.4