Try the model
RUTG

Rutgers 7 at Northwestern 21

NU
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:22 · Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:44: Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 18 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +6.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:15: Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +12.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:18: Noah Vedral pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 1 yd to the Rutgr 42 — RUTG win probability +5.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:31: Timeout RUTGERS, clock 05:31 — NU win probability +6.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:33: Andrew Clair run for 3 yds for a TD — NU win probability +9.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:29NU 4th & 10 at RUTG 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45NU 4th & 8 at NU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:55RUTG 4th & 11 at NU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:06RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:28NU 4th & 18 at NU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:01NU 4th & 12 at RUTG 37, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.9%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:33RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:32NU 4th & 7 at RUTG 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:38RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:13NU 4th & 9 at NU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00RUTG 4th & 11 at NU 48, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:12RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:18NU 4th & 4 at RUTG 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−1.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:24RUTG 4th & 8 at NU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−11.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:34NU 4th & 7 at NU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:25RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:08NU 4th & 8 at NU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:27RUTG 4th & 16 at RUTG 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−4.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:50RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:47NU 4th & 7 at NU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:51RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:22NU 4th & 1 at RUTG 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:36NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:44RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:15NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:33NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1MISSED FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:3135% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.1%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+47
35.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 47 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
35.1%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
35.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
35.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
35.8%
Charlie Kuhbander 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2464% → 63%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
35.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
35.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 7 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
35.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 6 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
35.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-4
35.7%
Noah Vedral run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+3
36.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 56 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 3 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2037% → 37%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
36.7%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 8Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+4
36.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 4 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
36.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+14
36.9%
Derek Adams punt for 44 yds , Aaron Young returns for 14 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5063% → 62%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
36.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
36.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
37.0%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
37.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 98 yds · 2:1937% → 42%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
37.4%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
37.4%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the Nwest 6Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+22
37.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 22 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
37.6%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-5
37.6%
CLAIR, Andrew rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the NU 32 (ONYECHI, CJ). PENALTY RU Offsides on LEWIS, Aaron enforced 5 yards from the NU 31 to the NU 36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+64
42.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 64 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2058% → 56%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
41.7%
Noah Vedral run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
41.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
41.7%
Noah Vedral run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 7 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
41.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
41.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
43.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the Nwest 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3844% → 44%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
43.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 9 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
44.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
43.8%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Malik broken up by IZIEN, Christian at the NU 43. PENALTY NU Pass Interference on JEFFERSON, JJ enforced 15 yards to the NU 18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 25
OWN 18
+7
43.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 7 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 18
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 18
OWN 25
0
43.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 18
OWN 25
0
43.6%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds , Aaron Young returns for no gain to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2746% → 45%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-11
45.9%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 11 yards to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 21
OPP 46
0
45.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+9
44.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
45.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:2855% → 53%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.9%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
45.0%
Noah Vedral run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
44.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-4
44.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
46.1%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
47.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:0147% → 49%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
47.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
46.9%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
46.7%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+27
47.0%
Andrew Clair run for 27 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
48.4%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
48.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
47.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
49.3%
Derek Adams punt for 36 yds, downed at the Rutgr 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 2:4851% → 61%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
49.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+46
48.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 46 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
46.8%
Kyle Monangai run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
46.8%
Noah Vedral sacked by Bryce Gallagher for 0 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+16
48.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 16 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
45.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 6 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
39.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 18 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
16 plays · 86 yds · 5:2944% → 62%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
43.7%
Evan Hull run for 12 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
44.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-2
45.7%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-10
44.5%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the left complete for 12 yards to HULL, Evan caught at the NU 24 and advanced to the NU 41 (FATUKASI, Olakunle). PENALTY NU Illegal Block in the Back on SKORONSKI, Peter enforced 10 yards from the NU 29 to the NU 19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+19
44.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 19 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
46.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
46.6%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
47.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 5 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
48.6%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+32
49.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 32 yds to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
50.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 3 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
50.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+11
49.1%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the left incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Malik thrown to the RU 0. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on AVERY, Tre enforced 11 yards to the RU 2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3741% → 40%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
58.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 7 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
58.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
56.8%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
58.2%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
60.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2559% → 57%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
59.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
59.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+1
58.3%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
57.3%
Derek Adams punt for 28 yds, downed at the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1343% → 38%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
56.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 6 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
56.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for no gain to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-2
57.1%
Noah Vedral run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+5
60.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 48
-4
62.4%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4242% → 38%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
58.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 3 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
57.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
58.7%
Noah Vedral sacked by Jeremy Meiser for 0 yards to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
62.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for no gain to the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:5461% → 67%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
61.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+13
61.3%
Evan Hull run for 13 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
63.4%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
62.3%
Ryan Hilinski run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+5
61.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offsides (Mayan Ahanotu) to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
63.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
63.8%
run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
62.8%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-5
66.5%
Derek Adams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rutgr 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:5439% → 33%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
61.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 1 yd to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+12
61.2%
Aaron Young run for 12 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
59.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+6
60.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 6 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+14
59.8%
Noah Vedral run for 14 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
57.0%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
57.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+15
59.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Peter McIntyre) to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
57.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 9 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-7
61.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+5
63.6%
Noah Vedral run for 5 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+5
65.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
67.5%
Valentino Ambrosio 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5073% → 69%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
72.7%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
72.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
71.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+8
71.1%
Derek Adams punt for 55 yds , Aaron Young returns for 8 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
69.1%
VEDRAL, Noah pass to the left complete for 17 yards to MELTON, Bo caught at the RU 36 and advanced to the RU 47 (MITCHELL, Cameron). PENALTY Before the snap, RU Illegal Motion enforced 5 yards from the RU 30 to the RU 25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0930% → 27%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Noah Vedral run for no gain to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+8
70.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+3
70.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 3 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
73.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1778% → 81%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
78.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 20 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
78.8%
Ryan Hilinski run for 8 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
80.6%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
82.8%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-6
83.2%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
81.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
80.8%
Derek Adams punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Aaron Young at the Rutgr 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:4123% → 19%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
76.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+6
76.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
76.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
76.3%
Noah Vedral sacked by Adetomiwa Adebawore for 0 yards to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-5
78.1%
Isaiah Washington run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
81.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds, downed at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:5484% → 96%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
83.9%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
83.8%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for HULL, Evan thrown to the NU 36. PENALTY RU Holding on IZIEN, Christian enforced 10 yards from the NU 32 to the NU 42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
85.1%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
85.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyshon Fogg) to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
85.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 12 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
86.5%
Stephon Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+13
86.5%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
86.5%
HILINSKI, Ryan pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROBINSON, JR., Stephon thrown to the RU 0. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on AVERY, Tre enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the RU 9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
86.5%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 3Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
86.5%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.0%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:385% → 4%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
94.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 9 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 18
0
94.2%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+1
94.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
94.5%
VEDRAL, Noah pass to the right complete for 4 yards to YOUNG, Aaron caught at the RU 23 and advanced to the RU 23 (HEARD II, Rod), out of bounds. PENALTY RU Holding on PACHECO, Isaih enforced 10 yards from the RU 19 to the RU 9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+6
94.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 6 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 13
OWN 16
0
94.6%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 13
OWN 16
0
94.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
95.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5797% → 98%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
96.9%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
97.7%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Aaron Young at the Rutgr 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:564% → 3%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
96.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Shameen Jones for 7 yds to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
95.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
95.8%
Evan Simon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Evan Simon sacked by Samdup Miller for 0 yards to the Rutgr 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
98.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
99.0%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+4
99.0%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
98.8%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:15
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q4 7:33
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds for a TD
+9.6
TD · Q2 8:44
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 18 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com