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BUF

Buffalo 3 at Nebraska 28

NEB
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:02 · punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense+26.4Score differential+10.1Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:56: Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +6.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:34: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 68 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +8.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 12:25: Connor Culp 42 yd FG MISSED — NEB win probability +2.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:47: Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:53: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 68 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:48BUF 4th & 12 at NEB 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:38NEB 4th & 5 at BUF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:44BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:46NEB 4th & 18 at BUF 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:40BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:31BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:28NEB 4th & 12 at BUF 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25NEB 4th & 7 at BUF 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:17BUF 4th & 13 at NEB 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:16NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:16BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:49NEB 4th & 11 at BUF 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:01BUF 4th & 2 at NEB 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:51NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:02BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:03BUF 4th & 3 at NEB 32, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:45BUF 4th & 15 at NEB 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:34NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
16 plays · 33 yds · 6:1218% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
82.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 13 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
82.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
82.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+10
82.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 10 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
82.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
82.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
82.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
82.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 5 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
82.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Neb 35Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-10
80.8%
Marks,Kevin rush for 7 yards gain to the NEB28 (Domann,JoJo) PENALTY BUF Holding (Klenk,Jack) 10 yards from NEB35 to NEB45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+8
81.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 8 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-5
81.0%
PENALTY BUF False Start (Schaerer,Alain) 5 yards from NEB37 to NEB42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
80.6%
Evan Finegan punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:1081% → 80%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.7%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+17
80.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 17 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Neb 41Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
80.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 8 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+17
81.0%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the NEBRASKA 49 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Khamran Laborn) to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
81.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
81.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Chris HickmanSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+8
81.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 8 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
81.3%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+1
81.3%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+7
81.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
80.3%
Connor Culp 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5420% → 20%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
80.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
80.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cam Taylor-Britt at the Neb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 3:5880% → 78%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
80.3%
Sevion Morrison run for 1 yd to the Neb 43Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
80.3%
Sevion Morrison run for 5 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+9
80.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 9 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
80.6%
Sevion Morrison run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
80.6%
Sevion Morrison run for 2 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+5
79.9%
Sevion Morrison run for 5 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.3%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
80.3%
Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
79.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Markese SteppSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 26
-15
79.4%
Martinez,Adrian pass complete to Toure,Samori for 0 yards to the BUF26 PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Liewer,Wyatt) 15 yards from BUF26 to BUF41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
78.3%
Daniel Cerni punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 5:0621% → 23%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
78.9%
McDuffie,Dylan rush for 2 yards gain to the BUF24 (Newsome,Quinton) PENALTY NEB Offside (Daniels,Damion) 5 yards from BUF22 to BUF27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
78.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
78.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
78.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+3
78.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 3 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
76.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
76.6%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
76.6%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
77.1%
Evan Finegan punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4477% → 83%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
76.8%
Sevion Morrison run for 1 yd to the Neb 21Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
76.7%
PENALTY NEB False Start (Corcoran,Turner) 5 yards from NEB21 to NEB16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+9
76.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Chris Hickman for 9 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+73
76.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 71 yds to the NEBRASKA 4 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Face Mask (2 yards) (Mark Davis Jr.) to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.0%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1719% → 19%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
81.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 7 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+3
80.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany RuizSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
81.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 8 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
80.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+2
81.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0383% → 80%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
82.9%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-10
82.8%
Martinez,Adrian pass complete to Betts,Zavier for 0 yards to the BUF44 PENALTY NEB Holding (Benhart,Bryce) 10 yards from BUF44 to NEB46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+14
82.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 14 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
82.5%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 7
OPP 43
-5
81.5%
PENALTY NEB Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUF43 to BUF48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
80.2%
Daniel Cerni punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5619% → 18%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
81.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for 3 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+2
81.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+6
81.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
82.2%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 81 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5882% → 90%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Gabe Ervin Jr. for 3 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
81.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 4 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
81.4%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 5 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
89.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 68 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:3412% → 15%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
88.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 13 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jake MolinichSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
87.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+21
88.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 21 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
85.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 7 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+52
84.8%
Alex McNulty 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3586% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.7%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
85.7%
Martinez,Adrian pass incomplete to Liewer,Wyatt PENALTY BUF Personal Foul (Michel,Max) 15 yards from NEB27 to NEB42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
86.5%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+27
86.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Chris Hickman for 27 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
86.6%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
86.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Gabe Ervin Jr. for 3 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
86.2%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Samori ToureSimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
88.8%
Connor Culp 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:0812% → 10%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
88.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 13 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
88.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
87.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+30
87.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 30 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
86.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
87.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 3 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-15
88.6%
PENALTY BUF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McDuffie,Dylan) 15 yards from NEB23 to NEB38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 24
OPP 38
+11
89.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
89.8%
Alex McNulty 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0191% → 92%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Samori ToureSimilar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
90.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Chancellor Brewington for 12 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
91.5%
Sevion Morrison run for 2 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
91.5%
Sevion Morrison run for 5 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
91.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Sevion Morrison for no gain to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
92.0%
Daniel Cerni punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0010% → 9%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
90.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
90.6%
PENALTY BUF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 11 yard from BUF22 to BUF11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 21
OWN 11
+15
90.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
89.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 11 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
89.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
89.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
89.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany RuizSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Evan Finegan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Samori Toure at the Neb 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:2793% → 94%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
92.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Brody Belt for 16 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
92.9%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 11 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
93.2%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 21 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
93.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
93.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Samori ToureSimilar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
93.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Samori ToureSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
94.1%
Daniel Cerni punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:587% → 6%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
92.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+2
93.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+12
94.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 12 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 3:404% → 3%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
95.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany RuizSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-5
95.9%
PENALTY BUF False Start (Klenk,Jack) 5 yards from BUF19 to BUF14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+4
96.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+14
96.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 14 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
95.7%
Vantrease,Kyle pass complete to Molinich,Jake for 0 yards to the BUF32 PENALTY BUF Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Fuzak,Jake) 5 yards from BUF32 to BUF27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
95.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+14
96.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 14 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+17
95.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 17 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
95.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 8 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
95.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
96.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany RuizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:1098% → 98%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
97.8%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 11 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
97.9%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
97.9%
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
98.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 5
50
-5
97.8%
PENALTY NEB Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUF50 to NEB45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Daniel Cerni punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
97.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany RuizSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
97.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 5 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
97.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
97.4%
punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:593% → 4%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
97.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
97.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
97.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for 5 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+50
96.2%
Alex McNulty 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
97.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 68 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24FG
17 plays · 51 yds · 3:084% → 3%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Cole BurnistonSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 10 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
96.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
96.3%
Vantrease,Kyle pass incomplete to Johnson,Marlyn, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Clark,Braxton) 6 yards from BUF41 to BUF47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+20
96.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 20 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
95.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 6 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
95.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+8
95.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 8 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
95.6%
Kyle Vantrease run for no gain to the Neb 19Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
96.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-5
96.2%
PENALTY BUF Encroachment (Laborn,Khamran) 5 yards from NEB19 to NEB24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+42
97.0%
Alex McNulty 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:4097% → 99%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
97.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+54
98.2%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Chris Hickman for 54 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
98.3%
Rahmir Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
98.3%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-5
98.3%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+34
99.3%
Connor Culp 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
97.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:34
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 68 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 6:56
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q4 14:47
Gabe Ervin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com