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WIS

Wisconsin 13 at Minnesota 23

MINN
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:41 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain to the Minn 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior−10.0Home team on offense−4.8Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:22: Scott Nelson 26 Yd Interception Return (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +4.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:24: Ky Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +12.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:35: Collin Larsh 28 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +5.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:56: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +22.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:08: Matthew Trickett 36 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +7.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 7:29MINN 4th & 4 at WIS 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:37WIS 4th & 3 at MINN 7, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−4.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:19MINN 4th & 7 at WIS 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−5.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:07WIS 4th & 9 at MINN 35, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:47MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:41WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:35WIS 4th & 5 at MINN 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−10.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:17WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:27MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:44WIS 4th & 10 at MINN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:08MINN 4th & 2 at WIS 18, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%−1.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:26WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 16, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:21WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:33MINN 4th & 12 at WIS 35, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:48WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:22WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:24MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:56MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 7:3131% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
31.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Targeting on WILDER, Collin enforced (Collin Wilder) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
31.4%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
31.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
31.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+6
31.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 6 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
31.4%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
31.4%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
31.4%
Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
31.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 3 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
31.4%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+8
31.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 8 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
31.4%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
31.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 8 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
35.6%
Matthew Trickett 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2FG
19 plays · 85 yds · 9:5264% → 63%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
35.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 17 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.6%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
35.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 6 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
35.4%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
35.4%
ALLEN, Braelon rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards to the UMN48 (HOWDEN, Jordan). PENALTY WIS Holding on CHENAL, John enforced 10 yards from the WIS35 to the WIS25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+4
35.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+11
35.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 11 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
35.2%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the WIS50. PENALTY UMN Personal Foul on MAFE, Boye enforced 15 yards from the WIS40 to the UMN45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
34.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
34.9%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
34.8%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
34.6%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+17
37.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 17 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
37.8%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Minn 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
37.8%
MERTZ, Graham sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the UMN19 (MAFE, Boye). PENALTY UMN Holding on DURR, Coney enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the UMN13 to the UMN6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-5
37.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
37.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 4 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
38.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
37.5%
Collin Larsh 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-26
32.8%
Scott Nelson 26 Yd Interception Return (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 4:0333% → 39%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
33.1%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+36
33.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 36 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
35.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 9 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+4
35.5%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
35.5%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
35.5%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Wisc 13Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
34.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
38.6%
Matthew Trickett 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:1263% → 64%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 20Similar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
37.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
37.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
37.7%
MERTZ, Graham pass up the middle incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the WIS38. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on WALLEY, Justin enforced 15 yards to the WIS38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
35.5%
Braelon Allen run for 14 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
35.0%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
35.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 6 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+5
35.2%
Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
34.9%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
34.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
35.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
36.3%
Conor Schlichting punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:3636% → 36%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
36.1%
Ky Thomas run for 12 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
36.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+18
36.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 18 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
37.6%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
37.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
37.6%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Keeanu Benton for 0 yards to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
36.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0664% → 63%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
36.2%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+5
36.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 5 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
36.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain to the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
33.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5264% → 63%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
35.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
35.9%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
37.1%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted return for no gain to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:3943% → 55%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
42.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 26 yds to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.8%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:4951% → 58%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.5%
Danny Davis III run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
49.5%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
50.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 16 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
46.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 14 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
46.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-2
45.9%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+15
46.5%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the UMN10. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on HOWARD, Phillip enforced 15 yards to the UMN25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
44.6%
Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
45.4%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-2
45.4%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 11Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+2
47.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 2 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+28
41.9%
Collin Larsh 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:3148% → 76%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
48.2%
Ky Thomas run for 9 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
50.2%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
50.0%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
51.4%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Keeanu Benton for 0 yards to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+27
47.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 27 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
53.8%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+15
53.7%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dylan thrown to the WIS7. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Caesar enforced 15 yards to the WIS17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
53.7%
IRVING, Mar'Keise rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the WIS15 (TORCHIO, John). PENALTY UMN Holding on FAALELE, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the WIS17 to the WIS27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+27
75.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3933% → 27%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.1%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 8 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
71.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3379% → 75%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
78.5%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
78.1%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Leo Chenal and Jack Sanborn for 0 yards to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+9
76.7%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 9 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
77.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
75.2%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for PRYOR, Kendric thrown to the UMN35. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on WALLEY, Justin enforced 15 yards to the WIS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:4327% → 22%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
73.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
72.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 10 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
69.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
70.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
72.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
78.2%
Collin Larsh 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 5:3682% → 91%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
81.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+30
81.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 30 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
84.0%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
83.9%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
83.3%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
84.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
84.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+3
83.3%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
91.2%
Matthew Trickett 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:398% → 5%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
91.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
91.8%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+4
92.2%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 1
OWN 21
-5
94.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Leo Chenal) to the Wisc 16Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+11
94.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
94.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
94.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+6
94.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 6 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
95.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4896% → 97%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
95.9%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
95.9%
Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+1
95.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 7
OPP 30
-5
96.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Nubin) to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
96.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 28 yds, downed at the Wisc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:453% → 3%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
97.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
97.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 9 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
97.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+2
97.3%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Wisc 16 run for 2 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:56
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q3 13:24
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+12.3
FG · Q4 6:08
Matthew Trickett 36 yd FG GOOD
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com