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MSU

Michigan State 31 at Rutgers 13

RUTG
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · SHI Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:27 · Noah Vedral pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense−29.9Score differential−15.0Garbage-time factor−13.3Pregame prior−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:51: Johnny Langan pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 4 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +2.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:05: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 63 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:18: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 63 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:10: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 65 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:13: Kenneth Walker III run for 94 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:13MSU 4th & 6 at RUTG 25, tied
    Close callWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:03RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:51MSU 4th & 8 at RUTG 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:10RUTG 4th & 8 at MSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:33RUTG 4th & 6 at MSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:21RUTG 4th & 8 at MSU 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:16RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MSU 4th & 16 at RUTG 18, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:06RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 24, down 8
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:37MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 14, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:14RUTG 4th & 2 at MSU 47, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:24MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:29RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:09RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 40, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:14MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 34, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:27RUTG 4th & 7 at MSU 8, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−5.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:54MSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 18, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:21RUTG 4th & 2 at MSU 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:51RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:05MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:18MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:10MSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:13MSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:4256% → 55%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
43.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
43.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+17
43.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
43.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+13
43.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 13 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
43.9%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 5
OPP 24
0
44.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
44.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-3
44.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 6
OPP 25
-3
44.7%
Bryce Baringer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:0845% → 50%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
45.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-9
45.1%
Noah Vedral sacked by Simeon Barrow for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+19
44.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 19 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
45.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
45.6%
Noah Vedral run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
50
+11
46.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 11 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
46.3%
Noah Vedral run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+33
46.4%
Noah Vedral run for 33 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
50.2%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 4 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3651% → 54%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
45.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 63 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5246% → 47%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
46.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+13
46.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 13 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
47.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 20
OWN 33
-6
46.6%
Noah Vedral sacked by Jack Camper and Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 26
OWN 27
+6
46.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 6 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 20
OWN 33
+8
46.4%
Noah Vedral run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 12
OWN 41
+1
46.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:5453% → 54%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
46.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+39
46.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 39 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
45.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
45.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
45.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-5
46.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
46.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:3448% → 51%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
48.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 27 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
49.7%
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
50
-10
49.9%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+9
48.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 9 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
49.3%
Vedral, Noah pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul 15 yards to the MICHIGANST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RUTGERS.Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
50.5%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
51.1%
Aaron Young run for 8 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+6
51.4%
Aaron Young run for 6 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
51.5%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
51.6%
Kyle Monangai run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
51.1%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Kyle MonangaiSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
51.2%
Valentino Ambrosio 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:3249% → 56%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
51.0%
Jayden Reed run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+15
51.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
50.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
51.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+63
44.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 63 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:2645% → 46%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
46.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 15 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
47.2%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+4
45.5%
Noah Vedral run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
46.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5754% → 55%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
45.9%
Harold Joiner run for 12 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
44.1%
Harold Joiner run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
44.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-10
44.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 13 Payton Thorne fumbled, recovered by MchSt Luke Campbell Luke Campbell fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Tyreem PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4948% → 49%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
48.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
48.5%
Noah Vedral run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
47.2%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
49.2%
Valentino Ambrosio 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
35.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 65 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4336% → 35%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
35.9%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
35.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13DOWNS
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:5964% → 69%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
35.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+10
35.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
33.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 6 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
33.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
32.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
31.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+5
31.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+19
31.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 19 yds to the Rutgr 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
30.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-10
29.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+2
29.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 16
OPP 18
0
29.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+35
31.4%
Matt Coghlin 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:4434% → 31%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
33.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-10
33.5%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+2
32.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 21 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+14
32.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 14 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-1
32.6%
Noah Vedral run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
30.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:0569% → 67%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
31.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
31.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-5
32.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+12
32.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 12 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 24
-5
32.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 10
OWN 19
-5
32.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
32.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0434% → 32%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
34.2%
Aron Cruickshank run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
32.9%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Aron CruickshankSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+10
30.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 10 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
32.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3471% → 69%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
29.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 9Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
29.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 12
OWN 9
0
30.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 12
OWN 9
0
31.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5132% → 29%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
32.1%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
30.8%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
30.0%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
28.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 51 yds, downed at the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 94 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+94
16.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 94 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4419% → 17%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
18.8%
Pacheco, Isaih rush for 4 yards to the RUTGERS40, PENALTY RUTGERS holding 10 yards to the RUTGERS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+4
17.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
17.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+10
16.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+57
17.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 53 yds , Jayden Reed returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 39 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (4 Yards) to the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:3885% → 90%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
14.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
14.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+9
14.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
13.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
13.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
13.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
12.4%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
11.3%
Harold Joiner run for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
11.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-5
9.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
9.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 47 yds, downed at the Rutgr 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 73 yds · 6:3614% → 7%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
13.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 5 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+12
13.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 12 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
14.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
14.5%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
14.2%
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
14.2%
Brandon Sanders run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
14.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
13.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
13.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
14.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
14.4%
Noah Vedral run for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+14
12.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 14 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
10.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
10.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-2
7.9%
Noah Vedral run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 8 Noah Vedral fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Cedrice PaillantSimilar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 7
OPP 8
0
6.8%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23INT
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:3294% → 96%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
5.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 12 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
5.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+25
5.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 25 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
4.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 6
50
0
4.1%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Alijah Clark return for no gain to the Rutgr 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:095% → 4%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
5.2%
Noah Vedral sacked by Drew Jordan and Maverick Hansen for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 18
OWN 36
0
4.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+28
4.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 28 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
3.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 12 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-17
4.2%
Noah Vedral sacked by TEAM for a loss of 17 yards to the Rutgr 41 Noah Vedral fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jacob Slade , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:0597% → 99%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
2.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+13
2.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 13 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
2.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
2.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+7
1.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
1.0%
Matt Coghlin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Shameen Jones for 14 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
0.7%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+7
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 7 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+25
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 25 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.8%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+7
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 7 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
0.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:13
Kenneth Walker III run for 94 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 6:10
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 65 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 10:18
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 63 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com