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MICH

Michigan 21 at Penn State 17

PSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:29 · Jordan Stout run for a loss of 18 yards to the Mich 29 Jordan Stout fumbled, forced by Vincent Gray, recovered by Mich Daxton Hill , return for 9 yds to the Mich 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense+1.4Pregame prior−5.4Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:50: Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +13.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:35: Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 2 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Jahan Dotson for Two-Point Conversion) — PSU win probability +34.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 5:55: Jordan Stout 31 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:29: Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +44.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:45: Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29 — MICH win probability +15.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 13 of 14MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:30PSU 4th & 6 at MICH 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56PSU 4th & 13 at MICH 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:15MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:29PSU 4th & 2 at MICH 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:52MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:19PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:46PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:35MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−1.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:31PSU 4th & 19 at MICH 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.8
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:32PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 14, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:46PSU 4th & 5 at MICH 25, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:13MICH 4th & 7 at PSU 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50PSU 4th & 14 at midfield, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:46MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 10, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−3.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:45PSU 4th & 4 at MICH 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−2.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−4.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:48PSU 4th & 2 at MICH 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−12.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:35PSU 4th & 2 at MICH 2, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−16.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:55PSU 4th & 7 at MICH 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−22.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:51PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.5%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:49MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:50MICH Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:35PSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    44.2%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.5%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:29MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 4:5943% → 46%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
43.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 18 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sean Clifford) to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+24
43.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 24 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
43.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+11
43.7%
Sean Clifford run for 11 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+13
43.8%
Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
44.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
44.5%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
44.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+18
44.7%
Jordan Stout pass complete to Curtis Jacobs for 18 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
45.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for no gain to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
45.4%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-9
45.5%
Sean Clifford sacked by Aidan Hutchinson and Junior Colson for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+42
45.5%
Jordan Stout 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4154% → 53%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
45.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
46.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 2 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
46.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+9
46.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 60 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 9 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3FUMBLE
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:3146% → 49%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
46.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
46.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
46.3%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
46.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
47.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
47.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
47.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
50
+19
48.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 19 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
48.7%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+18
48.8%
Sean Clifford run for 18 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
49.1%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Mich 9Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
49.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
49.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 7 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+9
48.6%
Jordan Stout run for a loss of 18 yards to the Mich 29 Jordan Stout fumbled, forced by Vincent Gray, recovered by Mich Daxton Hill , return for 9 yds to the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1352% → 51%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
48.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-5
48.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
48.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 5 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
48.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
49.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 65 yds, downed at the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:2848% → 49%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
48.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+12
48.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
48.6%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+13
48.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 13 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.1%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
49.4%
John Lovett run for 10 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
50.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
50.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-3
49.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 35 Sean Clifford fumbled, forced by Aidan Hutchinson, recovered by PnSt Caedan Wallace , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
48.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, downed at the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 7:1150% → 60%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
50.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+22
50.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 22 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
50.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-6
49.9%
Cade McNamara sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+15
51.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 15 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
49.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
49.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+5
50.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
49.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+2
50.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.8%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
49.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 13 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
49.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 7 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
49.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
50.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
40.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 21 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5844% → 42%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
42.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-3
41.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 58 yds , A.J. Henning returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:5757% → 60%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
43.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 8 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+4
42.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
42.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 16 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
39.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Curtis Jacobs) to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
39.3%
A.J. Henning run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 14
50
0
40.4%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 14
50
+12
41.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 12 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
40.2%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:5445% → 47%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
45.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+44
43.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 44 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
50.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
49.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-9
47.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 34 Sean Clifford fumbled, forced by David Ojabo, recovered by PnSt Sean Clifford , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+52
47.4%
Jordan Stout 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:2053% → 53%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
46.2%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
47.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 12 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5955% → 72%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
45.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 12 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
43.4%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+25
44.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 25 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
41.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+12
41.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 12 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
41.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+9
42.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+12
41.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 12 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:1032% → 31%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
32.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 15 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
34.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 7 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-1
35.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
33.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
50
-3
35.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
33.0%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
31.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 13
OWN 47
+3
30.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 3 yds to the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4870% → 69%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
30.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for no gain to the Mich 14Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
29.9%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
30.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
31.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:4333% → 34%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
33.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
50
+20
34.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 20 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
36.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
36.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+3
35.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 3 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
33.6%
Jordan Stout 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:0771% → 74%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 12 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
28.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
26.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 7 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
27.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
25.8%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
25.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+4
27.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+4
25.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
25.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:1728% → 26%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
27.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
29.1%
Jahan Dotson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
28.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
27.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+17
27.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 17 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
31.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-4
31.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Michael Barrett for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-10
30.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+3
26.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 14
50
0
25.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 49 yds, downed at the Mich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5674% → 77%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
25.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 2Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+5
24.7%
Cade McNamara run for 5 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+3
23.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 3 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
22.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 43 yds, downed at the PnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 53 yds · 5:0027% → 61%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
26.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
28.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
28.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
27.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
27.8%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
27.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+5
25.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
29.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-1
29.3%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+4
26.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+15
24.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the Mich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
28.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
25.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 3 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 2 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Jahan Dotson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:3948% → 47%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.1%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
51.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
53.3%
Cade McNamara sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 16 Cade McNamara fumbled, forced by Arnold Ebiketie, recovered by PnSt Derrick Tangelo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2566% → 76%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
66.0%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
66.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
63.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
75.8%
Jordan Stout 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1131% → 82%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 17 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
65.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
64.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 2
50
+2
63.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
62.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+47
18.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3231% → 30%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
30.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Malick Meiga for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
32.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
30.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:4486% → 95%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
14.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
13.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
12.4%
Cade McNamara run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
8.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+12
7.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 12 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
6.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:29
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
-44.5
TD · Q4 7:35
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 2 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Jahan Dotson for Two-Point Conversion)
+34.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:45
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com